The Miami Dolphins (0-2) and Buffalo Bills (2-0) play the first game of NFL Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. Dolphins vs Bills kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium on Thursday, Sept. 18; the game will be broadcast/streamed on Amazon Prime Video.
Dolphins vs Bills features the largest spread of NFL Week 3. The Bills enter as 11.5-point favorites on the spread with a moneyline of -900. The Dolphins are 11.5-point underdogs and +600 on the moneyline. The game total is 50.5 points.
For our Dolphins vs Bills predictions for Thursday Night Football, we have six best bets that include picks on the spread, over/under, and four player props that include James Cook, De'Von Achane, Keon Coleman and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
Dolphins vs Bills Predictions
- Dolphins vs Bills Spread Pick: Dolphins +12.5 (-108)
- Dolphins vs Bills Over/Under: Under 50.5 (-115)
- Dolphins vs Bills Player Props: James Cook Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
- Dolphins vs Bills Player Props:Keon Coleman Over 3.5 Receptions (+145)
- Dolphins vs Bills Player Props:De'Von Achane Under 12.5 Rush Attempts (-104)
- Dolphins vs Bills Player Props:Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Anytime Touchdown (+900)
Dolphins vs Bills Odds
- Bills vs Dolphins Moneyline: Dolphins +600, Bills -900
- Bills vs Dolphins Spread: Dolphins +11.5 (-115), Bills -11.5 (-105)
- Bills vs Dolphins Total: 50.5 (-110/-110)
Thursday Night Football odds via bet365
Dolphins vs Bills Spread Prediction
The Dolphins are 0-2 and it feels like head coach Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat.
Losing to the Bills in a blowout may lead to a coaching change during the mini-bye week for Miami. However, there are reasons to believe the Dolphins can hang around and make it a competitive affair tonight.
Most notably, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle Ed Oliver will miss this game due to injury for the Bills. Oliver is the best player on Buffalo's defense and Milano is its leader.
Oliver is the highest-graded interior defensive lineman in the NFL (according to Pro Football Focus) thus far this season. His absence may allow Miami to find some success with its running game, which it will desperately need in this spot. The Bills rank last in the NFL in yards before contact allowed per rush attempt.
I expect Tua Tagovailoa to continue his approach from Week 2, when it was clear getting the ball out quickly en route to a high completion percentage was a priority.
Tagovailoa will see predominantly zone coverage from a Bills defense he is familiar with and should be able to replicate his performance from 2024 at Highmark Stadium when he completed 25-of-28 passes with zero turnovers.
Limiting turnovers may be the most important thing tonight considering Buffalo has won the turnover battle in an incredible 24 straight games.
Underdogs in Week 3 who are 0-2 against the spread and playing a team that is 2-0 ATS have covered at a 60.7% since 2003. Over the last three seasons, all underdogs of 10 or more points in divisional matchups have covered at a 58.6% rate.
Simply betting every single road underdog inside of the division has returned a positive ROI in five of the last six NFL seasons heading into 2025.
Pick: Dolphins +12.5 (-108)
Dolphins vs Bills Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
We’re getting to the point in the season where “Primetime Unders” start to make sense again — injuries are beginning to mount and short rest weeks make it harder for teams to come up with an offensive game plan.
That’s especially problematic for the Dolphins, whose offense has been falling apart even under the best of circumstances.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for three touchdowns this season; he has also thrown three interceptions and taken eight sacks.
Now he and the Dolphins face their toughest defensive opponent of the year and are on the verge of complete collapse. Head coach Mike McDaniel is the front runner for first coach to be fired and Tyreek Hill is dealing with legal issues — De’Von Achane is the one bright spot of the offense.
If Miami can’t get anything going offensively, I doubt the Bills are going to push the pace beyond what’s needed. Their offensive explosions normally come from Josh Allen playing hero ball, but there’s no reason to risk him in a game they should control easily.
Plus, with the total now creeping over 50 at some books, the Bills could put up 30 points and still have this game go under.
Fanatics sportsbook is one of a few shops with this total now at 50.5, and they have the best line on the under at -115.
Pick: Under 50.5 -115 (Fanatics)
Dolphins vs Bills Player Props: Receiving Yards
By Chris Prince
While James Cook only had one target last week, he remains in firm control of the Bills' backfield, and this is a great spot for him against a hapless Dolphins defense.
Cook saw five targets in Week 1, so even if we meet in the middle at three targets, that should be enough to get us there with his explosive playmaking ability.
He has a strong history against Miami in the passing game, eclipsing this number in four straight games and averaging 26.5 receiving yards per game.
Miami has had major issues with pass-catching backs this season, allowing an average of 73 receiving yards per game to running backs over its first two games.
Pick: James Cook Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Dolphins vs Bills Player Props: Receptions
By Kyle Murray
Keon Coleman followed up his huge Week 1 showing with a bit of a dud in Week 2, but he had a real tough matchup against Sauce Gardner and the Jets. The game script also did not call for much passing volume given it was a massive blowout win for Buffalo.
Coleman has a 20% target share and has run a route on 90% of his snaps. He is first on the Bills in routes run (70) and targets (15).
Coleman projects for 4.1 catches in our projections at RotoGrinders, so getting this number at plus money offers nice value.
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 3.5 Receptions (+145)
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Dolphins vs Bills Player Props: Rush Attempts
By Kyle Murray
I have no doubts that the Dolphins want to get the ball in the hands of Achane as he is likely their best player at this point in time.
However, they could find it difficult running the ball consistently tonight as 12.5-point underdogs and a potential unfavorable game script.
Achane is averaging just nine carries per game this season because the Dolphins have regularly found themselves in pass-first game scripts, and they have no problem using Achane with short passes as an extension of the run game.
Additionally, Jaylen Wright is off of the injury report so that adds another name into the mix for guys who could potentially steal away a couple of carries.
Pick: De'Von Achane Under 12.5 Rush Attempts (-104)
Dolphins vs Bills Anytime Touchdown Props
This is a bit of a long shot, but there is some value here on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
Jaylen Waddle is questionable to play tonight and has been a consistent injury risk throughout his career.
Westbrook-Ikhine only played 44% and 28% of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, but he could be in for more work this week if Waddle doesn't play or if the game gets out of hand.
Westbrook-Ikhine has gotten two and three targets over the first two weeks and while he doesn't have a red-zone target yet, there really haven't been many plays for the Dolphins in the red zone this season.
He has been a big TD threat in his career despite a small workload. He has 19 touchdowns in 80 career games off of just 129 receptions, including 9 off of 32 receptions last season.
I have the true odds for NWI to score tonight around +700 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Anytime Touchdown (+900)
