A Dolphins vs. Bills SPG pick — specifically at +812 odds — for Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video) may be interesting to some bettors turned off by such a large spread.
Buffalo is a massive 12.5-point favorite against Miami according to live Dolphins vs. Bills odds — a line so long it may push some to bypass the spread entirely (even though it shouldn't).
But spreads aren't the only way to get down on Thursday Night Football.
With many markets available, Dolphins vs. Bills prop picks can offer value galore for bettors, and this appears to be the case according to Action PRO's NFL player projections.
Action PRO has unearthed three double-digit edges for Dolphins vs. Bills, including bets on Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane and Ty Johnson.
And for those who want to get froggy, these three Dolphins vs. Bills picks can also be packaged into a data-driven +812 SGP for Thursday Night Football.
Let's build
Dolphins vs. Bills +812 SGP Pick
*Odds as of Thursday morning
De'Von Achane Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
Achane has 11 catches so far this season, so it's not surprising to see his receptions over/under priced at 5.5.
However, Action PRO has a clear edge on this prop pick — the largest player prop edge for tonight's game.
Our data projects Achane with 4.5 catches, translating to a 19.1% edge when betting under 5.5 receptions at -105.
PRO Pick: Achane Under 5.5 (-105) Receptions — bet365
Ty Johnson Over/Under 12.5 Rushing Yards
Next, we have Johnson. The Buffalo running back is projected to have just eight yards on the ground against Miami.
Considering Johnson's 12.5 rushing yards over/under, we have a 15.5% edge when compared to PRO's projection of eight yards and a vig of +100.
PRO Pick: Johnson Under 12.5 (+100) Rushing Yards — bet365
Tyreek Hill Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
Hill has reeled in six and four catches, respectively, in each of the first two games of the season and is priced at 5.5 for Thursday Night Football.
Action PRO is well below that 5.5 over/under — 4.7 catches, to be exact — resulting in a 14.5% under edge when factoring in the -110 vig.
PRO Pick: Hill Under 5.5 (-110) Receptions — bet365
Dolphins vs. Bills Parlay Pick
Each of the best above has value on its own and, for those interested, can be used for a three-leg, +635 parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Bettors can use bet365's 30% SGP profit boost for Dolphins vs. Bills and push these odds to +812 as well.
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