The NFL season rolls into Week 3 action, starting with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills set to square off in a pivotal AFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 3 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate all the way through Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 3 Predictions, Odds
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 3 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Dolphins vs. Bills
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
The Bills may have lost Ed Oliver ahead of their Week 2 tilt with the Jets, but it didn't seem to matter much.
Sure, the Jets amassed 100 yards on 21 carries, but this line still managed to hold Breece Hall to 29 yards on 10 totes and the Jets' offense stalled out once it was forced to pass — and lost Justin Fields to a concussion.
Now, Matt Milano is injured as well, which should hamper what's been a strong pass rush through two games, though it looks like Shaq Thompson could be closing in on a return.
Either way, I'm not really sold on this team's defense — especially with two impact players ruled out and two additional starters in jeopardy of missing this one.
Do we like this Dolphins' offense? I'm not really sure, but they do love to throw the ball — ranking dead last in rush play frequency through two weeks. Their line has been lousy, but that's always been the case — and it didn't hurt them against a decent Patriots' pass rush.
This offense is built around getting the ball out quickly to these incredibly talented skill position players, and Buffalo's defense has looked suspect in coverage. I think we have to take the points.
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Passes
Steelers vs Patriots
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
It was back to business last week for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, who didn't have the fortune of facing a struggling Jets defense in Week 2.
The offensive line continues to be a liability for the aging veteran, with two starters still out, and the backfield has refused to help him out in averaging a lousy three yards per carry.
Now, the Patriots haven't had the hardest schedule, but they've at least established that they will take away the run. There's not much to take away from Pittsburgh, but it certainly doesn't help matters at all, nor does this Pats pass rush, which ranks 10th thus far according to PFF.
The hardest thing to get a grip on here is the Patriots' offense, which has been up-and-down despite receiving a rather generous schedule.
I just wanted to pop in here and say I don't like the Steelers on that side of the ball, and while I do want to give a slight lean towards the Under, I'd rather spend my time elsewhere.
Verdict: Pass
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Rams vs Eagles
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
We're still waiting on this Eagles' offense to do something worth talking about. Jalen Hurts has thrown for just 253 yards through two games, and even though it's come on 45 attempts, it's still a major concern given Saquon Barkley is averaging a pedestrian 3.7 yards per rush.
Perhaps we overlooked the Cowboys and Chiefs' lines coming into the season, or perhaps we're overrating this offense. Evaluators continue to glow over this Eagles' line, which ranks first in run blocking according to PFF, and they also protected Hurts quite well last week.
So, what's the deal? Are Hurts and Barkley getting worse? It's not impossible! We've heard very little out of A.J. Brown this season, and now Dallas Goedert is hurt, so perhaps this offense is becoming one-dimensional.
That could be why Barkley has yet to replicate his insane MVP-caliber level, or it could be a classic case of a running back's short shelf life.
Whatever the case may be, I'm out on this team right now, and the Rams' offense legitimately looks better in every way, but it's also far too early to write Philly off.
Verdict: Pass
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Jets vs Buccaneers
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -290 |
The Buccaneers look better than my beloved Jets in just about every way, including on defense, where they have continued to be stalwarts against the run.
The secondary has been a bit more suspect, sitting 19th in EPA per dropback, but now they'll draw Tyrod Taylor with Justin Fields nursing a head injury.
We all have a head injury watching this team right now, and without the ability to run the ball well as they've done the last two weeks, it's going to be a long day for the offense.
We already know it's been a long season for the defense. I'm actually most upset the Jets let go of Adrian Martinez after a solid preseason, because it would have been fun to see him get some run here.
Verdict: Pass
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Texans vs Jaguars
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -125 |
This game's going to be an easy pass for me with neither of these two offenses kicking it into gear quite yet.
It's certainly encouraging that the ground game got going last week for Houston against one of the more fortified defensive fronts in the league, and the secondary continues to impress.
Jacksonville picked on a bad Bengals defense last week, but two interceptions and an overall flat game from Trevor Lawrence cost the Jags the game.
There's certainly a chance Jacksonville can win this game on the ground, but are we sure Lawrence is going to look any better against one of the most talented coverage units in the game? I'm not!
Verdict: Pass
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Saints vs Seahawks
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
Maybe the 49ers just have an unbelievable system, or perhaps the Saints' secondary is really this bad.
It's hard to tell through just two games, and it's even tougher when the sample is limited by the Cardinals, who didn't show much interest in running in Week 1.
Whatever the case, Mac Jones cooked these boys on Sunday, and now a better quarterback with a big deep ball stands in their way this week.
Sam Darnold got right back to business last week against the Steelers, throwing for 295 yards and two scores on 22-of-33 passing, but he did throw two interceptions to blemish his line.
I don't really worry about him against this Saints secondary — although I've never once worried about Darnold — and there's not too much hope for New Orleans against a sound run defense.
The line is heavy, however, and it's not as if the Saints' offense looked dead in the water last week against a solid 49ers defense. There's no reason for me to bet this.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Colts vs Titans
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
Is it time yet to respect Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts? Perhaps it's premature, but they did just overcome the best secondary in football — and one which was fully healthy to boot.
Speaking of health, Indianapolis already has five defenders on Injured Reserve, including Jaylon Jones, and another impact corner in Charvarius Ward is uncertain to play on Sunday as well.
The Titans lack punch on offense, but they do have some talent. Tony Pollard is coming off an encouraging game against the Rams, where he averaged 4.6 yards on 20 totes and Cam Ward did technically improve last week, even though he was still limited to 5.3 yards per attempt.
The biggest back-breaker is their offensive line, which has allowed 11 sacks now through two weeks, but the Colts lack a pass rush.
I think we'll see this Titans offense blossom in time, likely when the line can get Ward some time to throw to a decent group of pass-catchers, and that could mean points here.
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NFL Week 3 Picks
Packers vs Browns
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
This line is moving fast, and I want to act now before things get out of control. This is a picture-perfect matchup for those who hate offense, with Green Bay's line in danger of missing two impact players, including right tackle Zach Tom — who's been instrumental in the team's early success on offense.
Cleveland's defensive line can't be ignored here, coming into the week ranked first both in run defense and pass rushing according to Pro Football Focus, and it will be able to dictate this game in a big way.
The Packers are running the ball at the third-highest clip in the league, and they'll be made uncomfortable here with Jordan Love asked to do a lot — potentially with little protection.
That should drive this game to a screeching halt, as 40-year-old Joe Flacco continues to collect a paycheck and operate with a terrible offensive line and no running game to speak of. He should be minced meat against this sound Packers pass rush and secondary.
Verdict: Bet Under 41.5
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Bengals vs Vikings
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Just when you thought it was time to write off the Bengals again in wake of Joe Burrow's injury, here comes Jake Browning to save the day. The third-year man out of Washington cooked up something special against the Jaguars last week, completing 21 of 32 for 241 yards and two touchdowns.
It was a pretty magical ending for Browning, who led the Bengals on a 15-play, 92-yard drive to win the game, but that sugar-coated what was ultimately a bad day at the office for Browning.
He threw three interceptions, including one on the previous drive, and prior to that had watched his offense stall aside from one explosive play to Tee Higgins.
Now, the Vikings may not be dominating in the secondary in a vacuum, but they did limit an explosive Falcons passing attack to just 135 yards on 21 attempts last week and shored things up in the second half of their opener against the Bears.
Minnesota also struggled against Atlanta's layered rushing attack, but that won't be a concern here with Cincinnati's backfield continuing to give it nothing.
There's enough mounting evidence here to take the Vikings without even mentioning the name JJ McCarthy, who I expect to survive against a weak pass rush and get the ball into the hands of his talented backs.
Verdict: Bet Vikings -3
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Raiders vs Commanders
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -190 |
I will continue to be the lead man on the Raiders' bandwagon. There's just something to like about the way this team has played despite lacking known talents on defense, and even against the vaunted Justin Herbert, they did their jobs in limiting him to 242 yards on 19-of-27 passing.
The pass rush continues to struggle a bit, but so does this Commanders offensive line, which allowed 24 pressures last week and is getting very little out of rookie right tackle Josh Conerly, Jr. That's not very good, because he'll match up with Maxx Crosby, who's been the only guy getting to the quarterback this year.
The defense already looks like it's going to surpass expectations under Pete Carroll's tutelage, and on offense, there's no denying the talent.
Geno Smith may have had a bad game by the numbers against L.A., going 24-of-43 for 180 yards and three picks, but he was a machine on third down and continued to bomb the ball down the field.
Washington has been a terrible team in coverage to this point, and while they can rush the passer, the Raiders should get starter Jackson Powers-Johnson back here.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +3.5
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Falcons vs Panthers
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
The Falcons might be the new Eagles. They're far from the unequivocal top rushing team in the league, but they're running on 50% of their snaps and maintaining a solid 4.3 yards per carry despite all that volume.
This offensive line has shone in every aspect, including in pass protection, and while Michael Penix, Jr. hasn't been asked to do a lot, we know what he's capable of with this talent at his disposal.
I mean, they're not the Eagles' yet, but let's see how this season evolves. It's certainly not going to get any worse against Carolina, which ranks eighth-worst in rushing DVOA on defense and eighth-worst in coverage according to PFF.
The Panthers have also continued to allow pressures on Bryce Young, and have provided no push up front for an already suspect cast of characters, so if there were any questions about this Falcons defense — which has performed admirably to this point, there really shouldn't be.
Verdict: Bet Falcons -5.5
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Broncos vs Chargers
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 46 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 46 -110o / -110u | -155 |
I certainly don't want to be a square here, and it seems as if bettors are taking on a contrarian tone in betting this total up two points in the span of a day before it came back down to Earth a bit.
I'd like to drive this number back down, because how are either of these two teams going to throw the ball? I mean, the Broncos are actually throwing at a 56.8% clip, which is right around the league average, but they're averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt, which ranks 25th.
Bo Nix looks overwhelmed when he's asked to take the game into his hands, preferring to operate as a conservative, short-yardage passer, and the Chargers have taken away the deep ball and have forced the passer into a checkdown at the 13th-highest clip in the league.
L.A. enters as the top-graded team in coverage according to PFF, and while it's been a shaky start for Denver, we can't fault the team at all for succumbing to the red-hot Daniel Jones last week.
There's still a lot of talent here, and we saw what happened last week when Justin Herbert faced a decent, yet not great, Raiders secondary.
I expect both secondaries to show up, and with L.A. standing tall against the run, it will take away Denver's lone strength on offense.
Verdict: Bet Under 45.5
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Cowboys vs Bears
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | -110 |
This is some total to see on a game featuring two offenses that disappointed last season, but I suppose it's not that big of a surprise after both teams allowed a total of 89 points last week.
That's crazy work, and for the Cowboys in particular, it throws a bit of cold water on their Week 1 performance against Philly. That goes doubly after the Eagles looked flat on offense last week.
The Cowboys' defense might not be all that good, or maybe they played down to their lowly NFC East rivals last week. In the end, though, I continue to be a believer in Dallas' offense, which got it going on the ground last week to open things up for a 361-yard game out of Dak Prescott.
The Bears are likely going to be without Jaylon Johnson in the secondary, which is a huge blow, and they might be without starting corner Kyler Gordon as well.
Dallas should thrive on that side, and while I do like the Bears' offense long-term, it's largely predicated around the run — something the Cowboys have shut down thus far.
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Cardinals vs 49ers
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | -130 |
I don't think it's right to hop right back on the Niners' offense after one good Mac Jones game against one of the worst secondaries in football.
I especially don't feel good about that, given the Cardinals have performed exceptionally against the pass through two weeks, ranking third-best in explosive play rate through the air and grading out as the seventh-best cover unit according to PFF.
Arizona's been able to slow the run, too, so why not bet on this team against a San Francisco offense weakened by the loss of Brock Purdy and several key pass-catchers?
A terribly easy schedule to open up the season is why, but I feel like I've talked myself into the Cardinals as this blurb has gone on. It's not like the 49ers have been able to stop the run, and that's what's led Arizona to a 2-0 record.
Sure, let's do it.
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Sunday Night Football
Chiefs vs Giants
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | +230 |
Russell Wilson went to town against the Cowboys last week, but that's probably not going to happen again here against the Chiefs.
Kansas City has allowed just one completion on eight attempts 20 or more yards down the field to start the year — the third-best rate in the league — and we know Wilson is nothing without his deep ball.
The Chiefs did slow the Eagles' vaunted offense last week, but I feel as though I've spent most of this column bashing Philly.
I don't think this is the best defense in the world, but Kansas City did hold Saquon Barkley in check last week after slamming the door on the Chargers' backfield in Week 1.
Are we going to be overly critical about one tough game against Justin Herbert, who might be growing into the league's best quarterback? I don't think we are.
If they shut down the deep ball and the run just as they've been doing through two weeks, the Chiefs are going to render the Giants' offense ineffective, which should open the door for a big-time statement win.
Let's also remember New York allowed 40 points last week.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -6
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Monday Night Football
Lions vs Ravens
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Well, the Lions certainly heard all the critics after Week 1. They scored the most points in the league last Sunday, but it did come against the Chicago Bears.
The Packers' pass rush stymied Jared Goff the week prior, and now the Ravens' imposing defense is on the schedule. They pressured Joe Flacco 22 times last week, and they continue to do a good job against the run despite some missed tackles.
I am not any sweeter on this Lions offense under a new play-caller, and I'm still a little sour.
There's time for that to change, but it likely won't come this week with Baltimore shaking off a tough Week 1 showing in the secondary and standing most vulnerable against deep passes.
We know Goff won't throw many of those, so even though there are some mounting injuries on defense for Baltimore, I don't think it's enough to buy into a huge day.
It's also hard to love the Lions' defense with Lamar Jackson looking like an MVP candidate yet again, but then again, this is a Super Bowl hopeful. It's hard to lay all these points, even at home, on primetime, with a limited sample to work off with Detroit.
Verdict: Pass
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