NFL Week 3 Survivor & Pick’em Advice: Popular Picks vs. Contrarian Angles

NFL Week 3 is here, and it marks some interesting strategic choices when it comes to NFL Survivor picks.

On the surface, the Bills check in as a heavy favorite, but they also have a ton of future value. Meanwhile, NFL pick’em players are looking for leverage spots where public perception doesn’t match the true win odds.

Below, we’ll break down the Week 3 landscape and highlight some of the smartest angles when it comes to NFL Survivor Picks and Game Winner Pick’em Pools.

NFL Week 3 Survivor & Pick’em Picks

The best choice isn’t always the obvious one; it depends on your pool’s size, rules, and format. That’s exactly what the PoolGenius tools are built to solve, giving you fully customized recommendations for Survivor and Pick’em pools.

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NFL Survivor Picks Week 3: Take the Bills on Thursday?

Buffalo enters Week 3 as the slate’s only double-digit favorite, checking in as an 11.5-point home favorite on Thursday Night Football against the winless Dolphins.

Miami has been a mess so far, getting blown out in Week 1 at Indianapolis before dropping a wild game to New England in Week 2. Now the Dolphins are on a short week, heading into one of the toughest road environments in the NFL.

It shouldn’t surprise people that the Bills will likely be one of the most popular NFL Survivor picks of the week, but the real decision comes down to timing.

Buffalo is projected to be a strong play in multiple future weeks. PoolGenius gives them a predicted 89% win probability in Week 4 against New Orleans and at least five more games with projected win odds above 77%.

With several teams favored by a touchdown or more this week, saving Buffalo for later could give you more flexibility when the slate thins out.

Other NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

As we alluded to above, several other NFL Survivor Picks for Week 3 have reasonable win odds. Here are the pros and cons of each:

Seattle Seahawks (vs. New Orleans Saints)

The Seahawks host the 0-2 Saints in what sets up as possibly their best NFL Survivor Pick opportunity of the season.

The Seahawks’ win odds sit around 75% (according to PoolGenius), which is their highest projection all year. For context, Seattle’s only other week above 60% comes in Week 12 at Tennessee.

That lack of future value makes Seattle an obvious play this week, although it will likely be extremely popular (something to keep in mind when you have a portfolio or are looking for leverage in large contests).

Green Bay Packers (at Cleveland Browns)

Green Bay has started 2-0 with unflinching wins over Detroit and Washington. The Packers are on the road in Cleveland this week, and the Browns looked somewhat uninspired in a blowout loss at Baltimore last week.

The Packers have multiple future spots with equal or better win odds (Week 6 vs. Cincinnati without Burrow, Week 9 vs. Carolina, Week 14 vs. Chicago), so deciding whether to play them now or later depends heavily on your pool’s size and how much faith you have in the alternatives this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NY Jets)

The Bucs have staged two dramatic comebacks on the road to start 2-0, and now return home to face a Jets team that could be without Justin Fields. If veteran Tyrod Taylor gets the nod, Tampa Bay’s 75% win odds could look even stronger.

While some future value is still on the table (Weeks 8 and 14 vs. New Orleans, Week 10 vs. New England), this game is also a perfectly reasonable spot to deploy them.

Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers)

Atlanta is more of a contrarian play for larger pools.

Coming off a solid road win in Minnesota, the Falcons face Carolina on the road with around 67% win odds. That’s not elite, but the low pick popularity creates leverage. At PoolGenius, we are projecting them to be picked by just 5% of entries.

The Falcons do have stronger opportunities later in the season, but in pools where you need to differentiate, this is a sneaky way to pivot from the chalk.

Which NFL Survivor Pick Works Best For Your Pool?

The best NFL Week 3 Survivor pick depends on your pool’s size and format. A 50-entry office pool is a completely different challenge than Circa Survivor with 18,000+ entries and holiday twists.

So how do you know which team to take?

Use the PoolGenius NFL Survivor Tool to get fully customized recommendations tailored to your exact pool size and settings.

NFL Pick’em Advice for Week 3: Value in Chicago?

Game-winner pools bring a different type of challenge, where it pays off to find the spots where public perception doesn’t match the actual probabilities. Week 3 offers one clear example:

Chicago Bears (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

• Spread: Pick’em
• CHI Win Odds: 48.0%
• CHI Pick Popularity: 24.0%

Chicago has been ugly through two weeks, giving up 52 points to Detroit after blowing its opener against Minnesota. That’s pushed the public away, while Dallas (who barely survived overtime against the Giants) is still drawing heavy backing. In what’s essentially a coin-flip matchup at home, the Bears are being overlooked, and that creates value in pick’em pools.

It won’t feel great to click Chicago before they show signs of life, but the win-probability vs. pick-popularity gap makes sense if you want to gain leverage.

We also flagged three other value opportunities for Pick’em pools, and our Data Grid breaks down exactly where the public is leaning, along with the best spots to get contrarian.

It’s like a cheat sheet for finding edges before you lock in your picks.

Get Your NFL Survivor and Pick’em Edges

NFL Survivor and Pick’em pools both involve finding value that the public misses. That could mean fading a popular favorite in NFL Survivor or grabbing a smart leverage play in Pick’em.

Use the PoolGenius tools to see exactly where the edges are for Week 3 — and get recommendations 100% tailored to your pool rules.