Multiple Angles Pointing Toward Jaguars vs. Texans Betting Value
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.
- The Houston Texans are 8.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday's (1 p.m. ET, CBS) NFL Week 2 matchup.
- The Jaguars vs. Texans over/under currently sits at 43.5.
- Using The Action Network's suite of betting tools, including historical betting data and Sean Koerner's power ratings, we examine where the value lies in this matchup.
Sometimes an NFL line immediately jumps off the page as one offering value. And sometimes a game quietly separates itself from the rest as more data, betting trends, angles, etc. update throughout the week.
That’s exactly what has happened with Sunday’s Jaguars vs. Texans NFL Week 2 matchup.
At first, this game did little to catch my eye. But with our Bet Labs software firing on all cylinders and NFL power ratings updated for Week 2, both agree that this AFC South showdown is one savvy bettors should be targeting.
Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Short Week Fatigue
Professional football is a physical game, and teams on short weeks get less time to rest, recover, heal and gameplan for their upcoming opponent than those on traditional rest.
According to Bet Labs, teams that played their previous game on Monday Night Football, meaning they have just six days between games as opposed to the normal seven, are 226-258-12 (46.7%) against the spread (ATS).
If that team was also the visitor on Monday Night Football, meaning it had to spend some of the short week traveling back home, the ATS record falls to 102-135-8 (43.3%).
The Texans played in New Orleans on Monday Night Football in Week 1.
Early Season Perception
As I wrote last week, casual bettors undervalue the previous season’s worst teams in NFL Week 1.
This makes sense because with no recent on-field action to lean on, the majority of bettors spend the entire offseason placing wagers based on team records from the previous season.
This betting tendency also bleeds into Week 2, as teams that won six or fewer games the year prior are 106-91-3 (53.8%) ATS through the first two weeks of the following season.
When those teams are also underdogs, like the Jaguars, that record jumps to 120-84-5 (58.8%) ATS since 2003.
NFL Power Ratings
Not only are there historical systems that support taking the Jags in this matchup, but The Action Network’s power ratings make this spread Texans -7.5, indicating there is line value with the Jaguars.
While it’s not a huge difference considering the difference in our power ratings and that the current line falls in the 7.5 to 9.5 key number “dead zone,” it’s another indicator pointing toward Jacksonville.
The key to successful long term betting is being able to put emotions aside and sift through the data to find whatever edges you can, especially in a razor-thin market like the NFL.
And when doing that this week, there appears to be enough value to support a wager on “The Minshow” (trademark pending) and Jacksonville to keep this game within eight points.