Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 18 picks I made — for Chargers vs Broncos, Dolphins vs Patriots, Titans vs Jaguars, Colts vs Texans and Ravens vs Steelers — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 18 Picks & Predictions
Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Texans Moneyline Parlay
This four-leg moneyline parlay is built entirely around motivation, seeding, and home-field edges.
The Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed with a home win against the Chargers. Los Angeles is effectively locked into the No. 7 seed unless it wins and Houston loses, which opens the door for the Chargers to rest key players. Denver, meanwhile, has everything to play for at home.
The Patriots can clinch the No. 2 seed with a home win over Miami and still has a path to the No. 1 seed, so there’s no reason to take their foot off the gas. This is a must-push spot for the Pats.
The Jaguars clinch the division and a home playoff game with a home win over the Titans. A loss could drop the Jaguars all the way to the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, so the stakes couldn’t be higher. This is a clear play-for-everything scenario.
The Texans can lock up either the No. 5 or No. 3 seed with a home win against the Colts led by Riley Leonard. Both outcomes are extremely valuable. The No. 5 seed is often the most coveted wild card spot, while the No. 3 seed brings home-field advantage. Either way, Houston has every incentive to go all out.
All four teams in this parlay need a win, are playing at home, and are facing opponents with far less to gain. That combination is rare late in the season, making +108 at Caesars more than fair.
Picks: Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Texans Moneyline Parlay (+108, Caesars)
Ravens vs Steelers Spread and Over/Under Predictions
The Steelers blew a golden opportunity against the Browns last week, which turns this matchup into a playoff game.
This is a classic “play the hits” spot: an under and an underdog in a Mike Tomlin vs. Jim Harbaugh matchup.
The under is 43.5 at BetRivers (already down to 42.5 at most books) and will likely only move lower. While the last three meetings have produced 42 or more points, the past 11 matchups averaged 34.5 points per game.
Both defenses are trending up, and both offenses remain unreliable. Pittsburgh’s defense has been elite at home, ranking top five in DVOA, compared to bottom five on the road, making home field a massive factor. Add in winter conditions and two teams that want to lean on the run, and this sets up as a low-scoring, close game.
As for the side, Steelers +3.5 is simply too good to pass up in this rivalry. Ten of the last 12 meetings have been decided by one score, and Pittsburgh has won nine of those 12 outright.
This also checks every box for a classic rah-rah Tomlin underdog spot: better team at home, divisional game, coming off a loss, and catching seven points or fewer.
Since Week 5, Tomlin is 68% against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, including an absurd 19-6-1 ATS (76%) as a home 'dog of seven points or fewer. He’s also hitting at a 74% rate as a divisional 'dog.
The most compelling trend might be underdogs in Tomlin vs. Harbaugh matchups, which are 25-7-3 ATS (78%). When the underdog is catching three or more points, that record jumps to a nearly untouchable 20-3-3 ATS (87%).
There are additional supporting trends as well, including AFC North underdogs hitting at 60% since Week 14, and teams with 17 or more wins cashing at a 36% ATS rate as 'dogs of seven or fewer since 2010.
I actually like Baltimore slightly more on paper, especially if Lamar Jackson is rested and healthy. But the numbers make this game close to a coin flip.
With a key number on the board, you have to take Steelers +3.5 while it’s still available. This line feels like it should already be below the key number.
Picks: Steelers +3.5 (-115, Caesars) / Under 43.5 (-110, Betrivers)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 18 Bets
- Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Texans ML Parlay (+108, Caesars)
- Steelers +3.5 (-115, Caesars) / Under 43.5 (-110, Betrivers)
