The Los Angeles Rams (11-4) and Atlanta Falcons (6-9) wrap up NFL Week 17 on Monday Night Football on December 29. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Rams are favored by -7 on the spread, with the over/under set at 49.5 points. The Rams are -355 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Falcons are +295 underdogs.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Rams vs Falcons prediction.
Rams vs Falcons Prediction
- Rams vs Falcons pick: Falcons +7.5 or better
My Rams vs Falcons best bet is Falcons +7.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Rams vs Falcons Odds
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -118 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | -355 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -102 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | +295 |
Rams vs Falcons Monday Night Football Preview
The Falcons have been eliminated from NFL playoff contention for weeks, but they can still somehow finish tied for first place in NFC South.
Why does that matter? Well, if the Falcons win out, the Panthers clinch the division regardless of the Week 18 result against the Buccaneers on Saturday.
Oddly enough, the same holds true for the Rams, who can still finish tied atop the NFC West if they win out to finish 13-4 (and the 49ers win). However, L.A. can't win the division due to tiebreakers, so the No. 5 seed is the best it can do.
Historically, Rams head coach Sean McVay has elected to rest his key starters late in the season over fighting for basic seeding differences, as he seems to value health over potential opponents. It will be interesting to see how he handles Week 18.
What does that mean for tonight? Maybe not much other than he may err on the side of caution when it comes to putting anybody back in the game who gets banged up.
This season has been about missed opportunities for the Falcons, who have a handful of heartbreaking, close losses.
- by 1 at New England (missed XP)
- in OT vs. Indianapolis
- in OT vs. Carolina
- by 3 to Tampa Bay (late blown lead)
- by 3 to New York in a game, it statistically dominated
Flip one of those results in their favor, and Atlanta would still be in the playoff discussion.
The same can be said of the Rams, who had control of the No. 1 seed before blowing a 16-point lead in their most recent game against the Seahawks. The Rams also had an inexplicable loss against the Eagles after leading by 19 in the second half. Their other two losses came against the 49ers in OT and the Panthers by three — games L.A. statistically dominated. Four losses by a combined 14 points, with two coming in OT.
At this moment, like many, I have the Rams power rated as the best team in the league. When firing on all cylinders, their offense is close to unstoppable, and the defensive line can really impact the game.
While the secondary still does have some holes and the special teams play leaves a lot to be desired, McVay's bunch is the most complete team in a wide-open NFL.
Rams vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
With that said, I do think this spread is a bit too high.
The Falcons have a very dangerous offense that I believe can take advantage of a few matchup edges against the Rams. The Falcons' offensive line can neutralize L.A.'s front, and their extremely underrated defense can get after opposing quarterbacks.
Atlanta's special teams unit is an absolute mess (and the coaching leaves a lot to be desired), but this is still a respectable team that has every incentive to keep winning (no first-round draft pick as it actually traded it to the Rams with a coach and quarterback still auditioning).
Additionally, the Rams aren't at full strength on offense.
Not only will they be without Davante Adams, but they will be shorthanded along the offensive line, which we saw had a negative impact in the second half against Seattle. I'm a bit worried about Atlanta blitzing too frequently against Matthew Stafford, which can be a death sentence. Still, this version of the Falcons defense can generate enough pressure to kill a few Los Angeles drives.
With Drake London looking like a full go in his second game back, where he should look much crisper after shaking off the cobwebs last week, the Falcons can do enough offensively to stay within this number against a defense that has benefited from facing several backup quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins gives the Falcons offense a much higher floor than the inconsistent Michael Penix Jr., so there's less risk of the offense completely falling flat on its face.
The Rams are the best team in the NFL for my money, but this number is simply too high, in my humble opinion. Give me the home pup at anything over a touchdown.
Pick: Falcons +7.5
