The Chicago Bears (11-4) and San Francisco 49ers (11-4) meet for Week 17 Sunday Night Football on December 28. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The 49ers are favored by -3.5 on the spread (49ers -3.5; -110), with the over/under set at 52.5 points. San Francisco is a -185 favorite on the moneyline, and Chicago is a +160 underdog.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Bears vs 49ers predictions.
Bears vs 49ers Prediction
- Bears vs 49ers pick: Bears +3.5 (-110 | Play to +3)
My Bears vs 49ers best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bears vs 49ers Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
Bears vs 49ers Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: Turnover-worthy throw data is from PFF. All other data is from FTN unless otherwise noted.
The 49ers have been rolling since QB Brock Purdy returned in Week 11, going 5-0 straight up (SU) and 5-0 against the spread (ATS) while posting 34.4 points per game and a +16.4 point differential. The 49ers led the NFL in offensive Expected Points Added per play over that span (0.175).
Despite an injury-ravaged defense that ranks 27th in Weighted DVOA, the 49ers easily beat up on the Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals, Bryce Young-led Panthers, Shedeur Sanders-led Browns, Cam Ward-led Titans, and Philip Rivers-led Colts.
What makes the Bears a threat isn't just the obvious — that Caleb Williams doesn't have a .100 winning percentage, and isn't tiny, and isn't a third-stringer who fell 140+ slots past his projected draft slot, and isn't a No. 1 overall pick who casually plays just as awful as the aforementioned third-stringer, and isn't 45 years old — it's that Williams has learned how to take care of the football under first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
Williams is third in interception rate (1.2%) and has lost only three fumbles all season.
Thanks to Williams' ball security, which has led to an NFL-low 10 giveaways, combined with an opportunistic defense that has produced an NFL-high 31 takeaways, the Bears rank No. 1 in the NFL in turnover margin (+21).
Did I mention the only teams to have beaten the 49ers this season rank in the top six in turnover margin?
In those losses, San Francisco committed nine turnovers and forced just one. They've committed multiple turnovers in all but one of their losses, and Purdy has the fourth-highest interception rate (3.6%) among 33 qualifiers.
The defense has the NFL's second-lowest interception rate (1.2%). However, during Purdy's five-game winning streak, four of his five opponents committed multiple turnovers — nine in total.
There's some luck involved with turnovers, but Williams has a better turnover-worthy play rate (2.7%, T-13th) than Purdy (3.4%, T-27th)
And the Bears have been trending up on both sides of the ball over the second half of the season.
- Pass Offense DVOA: 14th in Weeks 1-9, 8th since
- Rush Offense DVOA: 5th in Weeks 1-9, 2nd since
- Pass Defense DVOA: 27th in Weeks 1-9, 11th since
- Rush Defense DVOA: 26th in Weeks 1-9, 24th since
Ben Johnson has done an excellent job making adjustments in-game and in-season to maximize his team's talent in Year 1.
With Johnson on the opposite sideline, and having had an extra two days to prepare for a 49ers team on short rest, San Francisco won't enjoy as much of a coaching edge as they typically do under Shanahan.
The 49ers are also dealing with injuries to George Kittle (Q-ankle) and Ricky Pearsall (Q-knee).
Kittle didn't practice all week, and Pearsall was limited after missing his seventh game of the season last week. There's a chance both are held out or become less impactful than usual if they suit up.
The Bears have been strong in the red zone (54.2% conversion rate, 9th), so Kittle would be a big loss.
Bears vs 49ers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Per our Action Labs data, those trends signal a prime spot for a 49ers letdown after five straight SU/ATS wins.
- Teams coming off five straight ATS wins have gone just 40-55-3 (42.1%) ATS at home since 2004, including 12-24-2 (33.3%) in December.
- Teams averaging a point differential above 16 over their last five games have gone just 45-61-4 (42.5%) ATS since 2004 in non-Divisional matchups.
- Home favorites on short rest have gone just 27-51-3 (35.0%) ATS since 2004 in Primetime.
Pick: Bears +3.5 (-110, bet365)
Spread
As mentioned, I'm backing the Bears +3.5
Moneyline
I'm going with Chicago as well. The team that wins the turnover battle has won the game 79.3% of the time this season (146-38-1)
Over/Under
I have no play for the total.
