Monday Night Football in Week 17 features a high-profile matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Rams vs. Falcons preview, which includes Stuckey's spread pick for MNF.
For my top Rams vs. Falcons NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I'm highlighting Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Charlie Woerner.
Matthew Stafford
Less Than 270.5 Passing Yards
At this point in the season, motivation is a big factor, and the Rams have nothing to play for as of Sunday night. The 49ers' victory over the Bears locked the Rams into their current playoff position, and they no longer have a path to the NFC West title or the top seed in the conference.
With this being the case, we should see the Rams dial it back a bit, especially if they pull ahead in the second half. Los Angeles has a clear path to dominate this game by keeping the ball on the ground against a Falcons defense that is 25th in yards per rush allowed.
Teams have been run-heavy against Atlanta this season, and the Rams should continue that trend. Expect methodical drives that don't have many big plays through the air, and a possible early departure from Stafford in an attempt to keep him healthy for the postseason.
Puka Nacua
Less Than 111.5 Receiving Yards
In line with what we went over above, the Rams' leading receiver is also in for a quieter night with the Rams taking their foot off the gas offensively.
Puka Nacua has been on an other-worldly run the last few weeks as he has had 573 yards receiving total over his last three games.
If Stafford is expected to stay under this yardage total, it is a tall task for Nacua to account for nearly half of Stafford's expected passing yardage. Especially when it's likely that the Falcons will make someone else beat them, given the run that Nacua has been on.
Nacua's yardage total is overinflated from his recent performances. His median yardage of 96 is elite, but still shows that there's plenty of room for this under to cash without situational circumstances factored in.
Charlie Woerner
More Than 0.5 Receiving Yards
On the other side of this matchup, there is value to be had with the Falcons backup tight end Charlie Woerner. Over the last two weeks, we've seen him garner three targets and haul in all three of them.
Tonight, he will be overlooked again as Kyle Pitts' ascension and Drake London on the outside will be the primary focus of the Rams' secondary when Kirk Cousins drops back to pass.
A potential trailing gamescript only helps this, as Atlanta's passing volume will be high, and Woerner played 74 percent of the snaps last week. He is around -128 to catch a pass tonight, so the odds of his gaining at least one yard through the air are a value to capitalize on.
