Dolphins-Bengals Betting Preview: A Classic Buy-Low, Sell-High Game


USA Today Sports.

Oct 07, 2018, 11:50 PM EDT

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Spread: Bengals -6
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: This game is seeing lopsided action, with 70% of bettors on the surprisingly hot Bengals at home at the time of writing (see live betting data here).

The line has been doing a bit of a limbo around -6, moving to -5.5 and -6.5, but yet to touch the key number of -7.

Though the over in Cincinnati’s games have been pretty popular as of late, getting 84% and 73% of tickets in their past two games, the market doesn’t feel the same way this weekend.

This under is one of just three this weekend getting the majority of bets, and it has also received enough money to fall from 50 to 49.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Andy Dalton is 34-21-6 against the spread (+11.8 units) in his career when the public is backing him (51% or more of the betting tickets). Only Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith have made the public more money than Dalton since he entered the league.

After a straight-up win, Dalton is 22-13-2 ATS (+8 units) when the public is backing him, making him the second-most profitable QB in that spot behind just Smith. — Evan Abrams

Buy low, sell high. Sometimes it is that easy in sports betting. Miami lost by 31 points to the Patriots in Week 4. Teams after blowout losses have historically been undervalued.

Since 2003, teams have gone 405-338-17 (55%) ATS following a loss of 20 or more points per Bet Labs. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Bengals front seven vs. the Dolphins offensive line

This game could perhaps include sloppier football than most anticipate. The matchup joins Broncos-Jets as the week’s only games with a combined matchup-specific turnover rate above 10%, meaning both turnover-prone offenses will have to deal with takeaway-minded defenses the entire afternoon.

The Bengals have the edge at home, especially with the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict from a four-game suspension. — Ian Hartitz 



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