Dolphins-Bengals Betting Preview: A Classic Buy-Low, Sell-High Game

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Bengals -6
• Over/Under: 48.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Betting market: This game is seeing lopsided action, with 70% of bettors on the surprisingly hot Bengals at home at the time of writing (see live betting data here).

The line has been doing a bit of a limbo around -6, moving to -5.5 and -6.5, but yet to touch the key number of -7.

Though the over in Cincinnati’s games have been pretty popular as of late, getting 84% and 73% of tickets in their past two games, the market doesn’t feel the same way this weekend.

This under is one of just three this weekend getting the majority of bets, and it has also received enough money to fall from 50 to 49.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Andy Dalton is 34-21-6 against the spread (+11.8 units) in his career when the public is backing him (51% or more of the betting tickets). Only Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith have made the public more money than Dalton since he entered the league.

After a straight-up win, Dalton is 22-13-2 ATS (+8 units) when the public is backing him, making him the second-most profitable QB in that spot behind just Smith. — Evan Abrams

Buy low, sell high. Sometimes it is that easy in sports betting. Miami lost by 31 points to the Patriots in Week 4. Teams after blowout losses have historically been undervalued.

Since 2003, teams have gone 405-338-17 (55%) ATS following a loss of 20 or more points per Bet Labs. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Bengals front seven vs. the Dolphins offensive line

This game could perhaps include sloppier football than most anticipate. The matchup joins Broncos-Jets as the week's only games with a combined matchup-specific turnover rate above 10%, meaning both turnover-prone offenses will have to deal with takeaway-minded defenses the entire afternoon.

The Bengals have the edge at home, especially with the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict from a four-game suspension. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bengals

The Bengals are hoping to welcome back running back Joe Mixon (knee) Sunday, which would render the potential absence of Gio Bernard (knee) irrelevant.

The offense and defense are otherwise set up well, as center Billy Price is the only starter on either side of the ball not expected to suit up.

The Dolphins aren’t exactly a graveyard either, but receiver DeVante Parker (quad), linebacker Chase Allen (foot), tight end A.J. Derby (foot), cornerback Bobby McCain (knee) and defensive end Andre Branch (knee) are far from guaranteed to play in Week 5.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: A.J. Green has five touchdowns in four games this season and has at least eight targets in 10 of 11 games dating back to last season.

Life will continue to be good for Dalton’s receivers as long as the Red Rifle continues to average a career-high 299.3 yards per game and 7.0 TD rate.

Still, Green could see shadow coverage from ace cover man Xavien Howard, who joins Darius Slay as the league’s only cornerbacks with at least seven interceptions since 2017.

Four games isn’t a large enough sample size to anoint Howard as the next great shadow corner, but the 6-foot, 201-pound athlete offers a rare combination of size and ball skills.

Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd, who has a team-high 36 targets, is once again positioned for success against a defense’s below-average complementary corners. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Under 48.5

The biggest question mark I had coming into the season about the Bengals was their offensive line play.

While it has been better than last season, the underlying metrics suggest the unit still has major issues — especially on the right side of the line with Alex Redmond (has allowed the third-most pressures of any guard) and Bobby Hart.

The Bengals also lost rookie center Price, who looked solid in the middle of that O-line, to injury. Per PFF, the only starting Cincy offensive lineman that will have a grade of more than 55 is left guard Clint Boling.

Although its depth has taken a hit with a few injuries, Miami’s defensive line can exploit this deficiency. Expect huge days from defensive ends Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn.

Dalton should be under fire all game, and he won’t have tight end Tyler Eifert to rely on as a safety blanket — which you saw take a toll on the offense in the second half against Atlanta.

The Bengals should get out of here with a home win, but this game is setting up as a defensive grind that both defensive fronts can control. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.