Week 5 NFL Betting Market: Big Line Movement in Raiders-Chargers Matchup

Oct 02, 2018 4:10 PM EDT
  • The Raiders, Broncos and Cardinals are among the biggest early movers of the week, with the line moving at least one point in their favor.
  • A few games have lines on the key numbers of 3 and 7, which bettors will want to monitor.
  • The Falcons-Steelers game has the highest over/under of the season at 57.5, while the Titans-Bills game has one of the lowest at just 39.

The odds are out there — bettors have been betting and oddsmakers are adjusting. Week 5 is shaping up to have some classic sharp vs. square showdowns and a handful of lines bouncing on and off key numbers.

Here’s what’s gone down since lines opened Sunday night, as well as how they compare to Westgate’s lookahead lines from last week.

Big Moves

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The only really “big” move so far this week has been on the Raiders, moving through the key number of 7 all the way down to +5.5.

Oakland was available at +7.5 and +7 for only about 30 minutes after opening at BookMaker, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from continuing to get down.

Why, pray tell? Well, the 1-3 (nearly 0-4) Raiders obviously haven’t impressed so far, but neither have the Chargers. LA needed a late interception from C.J. Beathard to secure its win over the 49ers.

The Chargers have just one cover this season and clearly haven’t done enough for bettors to back them as touchdown favorites.

Denver Broncos (+1) at New York Jets

This line has moved considerably this morning as books were clearly taking too much Denver action as the Broncos are currently getting more than 70% of bets as road dogs.

Will Denver close as the favorite? If this activity keeps up, it’s certainly possible.

 Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Beathard as a 5.5-point favorite? I don’t think so. It looks like a mess as both public and sharp bettors have taken Arizona in the early going.

Josh Rosen wasn’t terrific in his first start against Seattle, but he was certainly competent enough to deserve a little more respect against a 49ers team that has already caught the injury bug big-time.

Key Numbers

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens just took care of business against Big Ben and the Steelers, while the Browns, although markedly better this season, are still the Browns in the eyes of bettors.

That is why more than 70% of bets are on Baltimore, but the line has remained on the key number of three. In fact, the juice is -116 on the Cleveland side, suggesting that a move to 2.5 could be coming.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7)

With the Panthers coming off a bye, more than 70% of spread bets have come in on Carolina. Early on, the Panthers actually fell from -6.5 to -6 but received enough of a push to move to -7 around noon on Monday.

Since then, the line has remained at 7, but with a bit of sharp action sprinkled in on the Giants at +7.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Vikings have received more than half of spread bets in this NFC Championship Game rematch, but Philly has had the slight edge in terms of sharp action.

With the Eagles are getting 41% of bets, but 52% of dollars, the juice on Philly -3 has moved from the standard -110 to -120 since opening. The only question now is whether or not the books will give bettors the chance to take Minnesota plus the hook.

Over/Unders

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (57.5)

The highest total of the year! Oddsmakers are definitely expecting a shootout, and the defenses may be more to blame than the offenses.

Atlanta has allowed the third-most points per game with Pittsburgh at #7, whereas their offenses have scored the sixth- and 10th-most points per game, respectively.

These teams have a combined over record of 6-2, and although just 43% of bettors are taking the over, the total has actually risen one-half point since opening.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (50.5)

This total is one that everyone is in agreement on: pound the over! After opening at 48, a combination of 80% of bets and 90% of money has pushed the total up 2.5 points.

The Rams’ 35 points per game are second only to the Chiefs and folks clearly don’t expect the former Legion of Boom to stop them Sunday.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (39)

On the low end of the spectrum, we have this game up in Buffalo that only a bettor would watch. This is the week’s only sub-40 total right now, and 64% of bets are on the under.

Historically, unders lower than 40 getting at least 60% of bets have gone just 42-46.

Credit:

Aug 10, 2018; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) smiles during warm ups before a game against the Detroit Lions at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money
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