NFL Week 3 Player Props: Kirk Cousins Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns?
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins
- Using FantasyLabs' Player Props Tool, we analyze five of the best player prop bets for NFL Week 3.
- Kirk Cousins' over/under for touchdown passes against the Bills is 1.5. Our tool believes this is arguably the best prop bet of the week.
Player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so it’s not as imperative for the sportsbooks to hang accurate lines.
This is where the FantasyLabs’ Player Props tool comes in handy.
We take each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverage them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a grade, with 10 being the absolute best.
Our Props tool has been killing it to start the season, with props graded a 10 covering at a 60.9% clip (39-25) against the closing number.
>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see the 20 bets rated a 10 out of 10 or better for Sunday’s NFL slate. All lines are as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
The pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-165)
A blowout is certainly a concern as the Bills opened as historically large September underdogs, but over 1.5 passing touchdowns seems likely for Cousins.
We currently project the Vikings offense for 68.6 plays, the third-most on the main slate, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Cousins to get his before Minnesota turns to a likely run-heavy game script.
Buffalo is tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed (four) in the NFL through two weeks, but they’ve still been giving it up through the air, with the second-most passing touchdowns allowed over that same span (six).
Jaguars WR Keelan Cole
The pick: Over 3.5 receptions (-115)
Leonard Fournette is not expected to play Sunday, and last week Cole was one of the primary beneficiaries of an increase in pass attempts for Blake Bortles. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most receptions to wide receivers to start the year and Cole is averaging five receptions per game through two weeks.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley
The pick: Under 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
He’s locked into a solid role in the passing game, but this line is probably skewed by Barkley’s 16 targets in Week 2 where he went nuts for 80 yards receiving.
The Cowboys’ zone looks took away the short-intermediate game for the Giants wide receivers last week, which opened the door for a big game from Barkley through the air out of the backfield.
Houston, however, plays a ton of man coverage which favors Odell Beckham building on his already massive 29.6% target share.
Bills WR Zay Jones
The pick: Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
Insert wide receiver not facing Xavier Rhodes here. Jones will benefit from a negative game script most of this game and naturally draws a more favorable matchup in the slot against the Vikings’ Mike Hughes.
Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill
The pick: Under 18.5 rushing yards (-150)
Tannehill has rushed for 19 or more yards in 22 of his 81 career games (27.2%), but he has done so in only eight of 31 (25.8%) since 2015. That doesn’t sound too bad.
However, his average over that same span is merely 11.4 yards and Oakland has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks though two weeks (7.5 yards per game).