Updated NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Overtakes Rodgers, Brees and Brady

Sep 26, 2018 3:31 PM EDT
  • Patrick Mahomes (+300) is the new MVP favorite following yet another great game in Week 3.
  • Drew Brees' odds have also improved after his clutch performance in Atlanta in which he ended the game in overtime with his second rushing touchdown.
  • Aaron Rodgers took the biggest hit of the week, as he fell from +350 to +600 after a loss to the Redskins.

The NFL’s top tier of quarterbacks has included Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees for quite some time now, meaning they’re typically at the top of the MVP race, just as they were before the 2018 season.

Last week, they were the three players in the NFL with shorter than 10-1 MVP odds, as they can always be counted on for top-notch play regardless of what happens in the first few weeks of the season.

Welp, somebody has played so well that he can’t help but be ignored anymore. You know who I’m talking about …

Here are the updated odds from Bovada:

Risers

Patrick Mahomes: +1200 to +300 (+17.3% Implied Probability)

You know you’re off to a hot start when “Will Patrick Mahomes break the passing touchdown record” prop bets are appearing after just three weeks of action.

Mahomes is indeed on pace to surpass Peyton Manning’s record of 55, as he has thrown for 13 scores so far. Although it’s unlikely to happen, the 23-year-old quarterback has already established a big edge in the MVP race.

He’s yet to throw an interception and has a passer rating just below 140 while leading his Chiefs to a 3-0 record. Even if he averages just two passing touchdowns per game the rest of the way, he will end up with 39 on the year.

With the weapons Mahomes has on his side, 40+ is certainly in play. Even though the number has moved a ton since the start of the season, I expect folks to continue to bet on him at +300.

Drew Brees: +700 to +500 (+4.2% IP)

Brees had a monster game against the Falcons, throwing for nearly 400 yards, three touchdown passes, zero picks and he added two rushing touchdowns, too.

Brees is having a ridiculous season statistically: 80.6% completion percentage, 359 passing yards per game, eight TD passes and zero interceptions. If the youngster in Kansas City falters, this wily veteran will be waiting to take over the top spot.

Cam Newton and Alvin Kamara: +2500 to +1600 (+2.1% IP)

Newton being so high surprised me, but I suppose it’s understandable. Last week, he accounted for all four Carolina TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing) and leads the league in quarterback rushing yards at 136.

His passing numbers don’t compare to some of those by other top gunslingers in the league, but that’s never really been his game.

Then you have Kamara, who has been a nightmare for opposing teams in the passing game. He has 30 catches and nearly 300 yards receiving to go along with 141 rushing yards and three scores overall.

Fallers

Aaron Rodgers: +350 to +600 (-7.9% IP)

A hobbled Rodgers and the Packers could have taken advantage of Minnesota’s brutal loss, but were never really in the game against the Redskins.

Rodgers ended up having a decent game numbers-wise and is still having a fine season. However, considering Mahomes’ and Brees’ starts, somebody’s odds are going to have to take a hit. In this case, it’s Rodgers.

Philip Rivers: +1400 to +2500 (-2.9% IP)

From an individual standpoint, Rivers is off to a fine start. Eight TDs to just one pick to go along with more than 300 passing yards per game. The Chargers, however, now sit a couple games behind the red-hot Chiefs in the AFC West.

If you’re a believer in Rivers/the Chargers or a doubter of Mahomes/the Chiefs, now might be a good time to hop on the Rivers train.

The Chargers should have an easy game against C.J. Beathard and the 49ers this weekend, so a solid game and convincing win could push Rivers back to the +1600 territory.

Julio Jones: +4000 to Off the Board (-2.4% IP)

Julio Jones. The best non-touchdown-catching wide receiver to ever grace this earth. Considering there’s never been a wide receiver MVP to begin with, it’ll be especially tough for Jones to win it if he can’t score a touchdown.

Credit:

Sep 9, 2018; Carson, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) smiles before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at StubHub Center. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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