The Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) and Washington Commanders (4-10) face off in NFL Week 16 on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 5:00 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Eagles are 7-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread (Eagles -7), with the over/under set at 44.5 points. Philadelphia is a -330 favorite on the moneyline, while Washington is +265 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 16 preview and Eagles vs Commanders prediction for Saturday night.
Eagles vs Commanders Prediction
- Eagles vs Commanders pick: Commanders +7; bet to +6.5 (-110)
My Eagles vs Commanders best bet is on Washington to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Eagles vs Commanders Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
Eagles vs Commanders NFL Week 16 Preview
The Eagles dismantled the Raiders by the score of 31-0 last week. Now that we truly know how bad the Raiders are, I'm not so sure how much credit we should give Philadelphia for that win.
I think the market is a little too confident in the Eagles right now.
This is a divisional game against the Commanders, and the Eagles are hitting the road on a short week, which could impact an injury report that is already a bit concerning.
OT Lane Johnson is still out for Philly, and he did not practice early in the week. It looks like DT Jalen Carter will miss another game as well. So, the Eagles are already missing two of their most important players in the trenches, and now, G Landon Dickerson and OT Fred Johnson have joined them on the injury report.
The Eagles' offensive line situation is not great, plus one of their blocking tight ends (Cameron Latu) has a neck issue and backup RB Tank Bigsby has an illness. Who knows what that running back room will look like beyond Saquon Barkley.
All of that is concerning. Notably, the Eagles are 5-8 straight up (SU) and 4-8-1 against the spread (ATS) without Johnson.
Jalen Hurts is still going to struggle against zone coverages. The Eagles have pulled some nice tricks in the run game for a couple of weeks in a row, but they won’t be able to do that every week. You could do that against the Raiders, not so much against more formidable opponents.
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has seen this team a bunch, even going back to his days with the Cowboys.
According to Evan Abrams, Quinn has been listed as a home underdog 11 times as a head coach — his teams are 7-4 ATS in those spots, and 3-1 ATS as a home underdog within his own division.
I think that Hurts is in for a letdown here, especially with the offensive line banged up — that's really the key for this Eagles team.
The Commanders defense is not good, but Hurts is still going to take too much time going through his progressions.
Washington's offense is doing slightly better with Marcus Mariota at quarterback over Jayden Daniels, at least by most efficiency metrics — EPA, YPA, Success Rate, you name it.
The Commanders are deep on the offensive line, even if OT Laremy Tunsil is not playing. More importantly, they get WR Terry McLaurin back, and he looked good last week.
With McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back, I think that makes up for the absence of Zach Ertz. Plus, the team has depth at tight end.
Eagles vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
With Philly’s banged-up offensive line, I'm going to take the Commanders +6.5 all day. In my opinion, it wouldn't even be surprising to see Washington win outright.
The Eagles are not suddenly fixed just because they blew out the hapless Raiders. Last week, they were double-digit favorites. Jalen Hurts is just 3-6 ATS the week after being a double-digit favorite.
One last important note is that Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has been missing some field goals in outdoor environments as well, which may cost them a few points.
Pick: Commanders +6.5 (-110)
Spread
My Commanders vs Eagles betting prediction is on Washington to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on either moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this game.
Eagles vs Commanders Betting Trends
