Thursday NFL Prop Pick: Bet On Gardner Minshew’s Under For Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop for every primetime game throughout the 2020 season — he’s 4-3 so far and has a 220-158-4 (58.2%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Thursday Night Football below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bet: Dolphins vs. Jaguars

• The Pick: Gardner Minshew Under 268.5 Pass Yards (-110)
• Bet Now: BetMGM

Over 33.5 receiving yards for Laviska Shenault was my favorite prop for this game — he’s been able to fly under the radar through two games, which should change on Thursday night as many NFL fans watch him play for the first time.

The best way to describe Shenault would be a cross between Alvin Kamara and A.J. Brown. While that might sound like a Madden create-a-player cheat code, I’m not implying Shenault is quite as talented as either player, and his ceiling is relatively limited in this offense. But not only will he continue to improve as the season progresses, but offensive coordinator Jay Gruden will find more ways to get the ball into Shenault’s hands.

Unfortunately, the Jaguars ruled out D.J. Chark just as I was about to publish that Shenault pick, and his line skyrocketed up to as high as 42.5 at some sportsbooks — right in line with my updated projection for him.

But while sportsbooks have adjusted their receiving yardage props for Jaguars’ pass-catches, they’re behind on Gardner Minshew’s passing prop.

As the Jaguars’ most explosive threat, Chark was likely to take advantage of the Byron Jones-less Dolphins secondary. Minshew had the No. 1 success rate in pass plays of 20 or more yards when throwing to Chark last season. Chark’s presence also opens things up more for their secondary WRs.

But without Chark, I expect the Jags to operate a more run-heavy, conservative offense as the favorites on Thursday night. I still expect Minshew to be very efficient against a terrible defense, but as we saw in their Week 1 win over the Colts, he passed for only 173 yards. Then when the Jags were trailing the Titans by 14 points at halftime of Week 2, he threw for 339 yards.

I think the market is overweighting his latest performance.

Let’s compare his actual completion rate vs. expected completion rate (per Next Gen Stats) between last season and this season:

• 2019: 60.6% completion rate vs. 65.8% expected
• 2020: 75.4% completion rate vs. 66% expected

Minshew has made an enormous leap in completion rate. In fact, it’s fair to say he’s much better than we expected him to be in 2020, but he should come back down to Earth.

All of these factors create value on the under 268.5 passing yards.

After re-simulating this game 10,000 times after Chark was ruled out, my median projection for Minshew is now 253.5 passing yards.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the market sends this number closer to 260.5 by kickoff, though. I would bet this down to only 262.5, but here are my projected chances of him going over or under various lines so you can compare them to your sportsbook:

[Bet now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]