NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Patriots-Bears, Two Other Week 7 Games
Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10).
- Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by New England Patriots-Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET). The game is listed at Patriots -2.5 with an over/under of 48.5
- Sharps are also getting down on Tennessee Titans-Los Angeles Chargers (9:30 a.m. ET) and New Orleans Saints-Baltimore Ravens (4:05 p.m. ET).
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Now let’s get to the games!
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (in London)
- Sharp angle: Titans (+7 to +6.5)
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
Sharps and squares are on opposite sides of this early-morning showdown across the pond (Wembley Stadium, London).
The Titans (3-3) have lost two in a row, including an embarrassing 21-0 shutout loss against the Ravens last week. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2) have won three straight.
Easy Chargers cover, right?
Not so fast, say the sharps. Despite receiving 72% of spread bets, Los Angeles has fallen from -7 to -6.5. This reverse line movement was caused by an overload of smart money on Tennessee +7 from professional players.
Reading between the lines, the pros are telling you that the key number of +7 was crucial for Tennessee. However, if you missed the +7 it might come back, as the LAC -6.5 is being juiced up to -115.
The Titans are only getting 28% of bets but a slightly higher share of dollars (36%), further indication of wiseguys grabbing the points. Tennessee also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Against the Public After Bad Offensive Game (61.6% ATS, +46.37 units, 19.2% ROI since 2005).
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
- Sharp angle: Bears (+3.5 to +2.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots (4-2) are the exception to every betting rule. They’re almost always a favorite getting overwhelming public support, and yet they still cover. Since 2003, the Pats are 163-109 against the spread (59.9%). However, they are only 3-3 ATS so far this season.
Once again, the public is pounding Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. But the sharps are buying low on Mitchell Trubisky’s Bears (3-2) at home.
New England opened as a three-point favorite. Heavy Pats betting (77%) pushed this line off the key number of three and up to 3.5. That’s when wiseguys hammered the Bears with the hook (+3.5).
Pros got down hard on Chicago, triggering eight separate steam and reverse line moves. Six of the moves came on CHI +3.5 and two at CHI +3.
This heavy sharp action dropped the Bears to +2.5. We haven’t seen any moves on Bears +2.5, so this means sharps only like Bears at +3 or more.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
- Sharp angle: Ravens (-2.5)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
The public sees Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints (4-1) getting points and can’t lay off. But the Goodfellas are fading the trendy dog in this one.
Baltimore opened as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Despite 55% of spread bets taking the Saints plus the points, the line has remained frozen at Baltimore -2.5. In fact, the juice has moved further in Baltimore’s favor (-2.5, -125). Some books have even moved to Baltimore -3.
The wiseguys grabbed the -2.5 early before it moved to the key number of 3.
The Ravens also enjoy a valuable bets vs. dollars discrepancy– they’re only getting 45% of bets but 70% of dollars, another sign of big respected wagers laying the points, not grabbing them.