NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Patriots-Bears, Two Other Week 7 Games
Credit:
Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10).
- Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by New England Patriots-Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET). The game is listed at Patriots -2.5 with an over/under of 48.5
- Sharps are also getting down on Tennessee Titans-Los Angeles Chargers (9:30 a.m. ET) and New Orleans Saints-Baltimore Ravens (4:05 p.m. ET).
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL Week 7 game.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Now let’s get to the games!
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (in London)
- Sharp angle: Titans (+7 to +6.5)
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
Sharps and squares are on opposite sides of this early-morning showdown across the pond (Wembley Stadium, London).
The Titans (3-3) have lost two in a row, including an embarrassing 21-0 shutout loss against the Ravens last week. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2) have won three straight.
Easy Chargers cover, right?
Not so fast, say the sharps. Despite receiving 72% of spread bets, Los Angeles has fallen from -7 to -6.5. This reverse line movement was caused by an overload of smart money on Tennessee +7 from professional players.
Reading between the lines, the pros are telling you that the key number of +7 was crucial for Tennessee. However, if you missed the +7 it might come back, as the LAC -6.5 is being juiced up to -115.
The Titans are only getting 28% of bets but a slightly higher share of dollars (36%), further indication of wiseguys grabbing the points. Tennessee also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Against the Public After Bad Offensive Game (61.6% ATS, +46.37 units, 19.2% ROI since 2005).
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
- Sharp angle: Bears (+3.5 to +2.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots (4-2) are the exception to every betting rule. They’re almost always a favorite getting overwhelming public support, and yet they still cover. Since 2003, the Pats are 163-109 against the spread (59.9%). However, they are only 3-3 ATS so far this season.
Once again, the public is pounding Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. But the sharps are buying low on Mitchell Trubisky’s Bears (3-2) at home.
New England opened as a three-point favorite. Heavy Pats betting (77%) pushed this line off the key number of three and up to 3.5. That’s when wiseguys hammered the Bears with the hook (+3.5).
Pros got down hard on Chicago, triggering eight separate steam and reverse line moves. Six of the moves came on CHI +3.5 and two at CHI +3.
This heavy sharp action dropped the Bears to +2.5. We haven’t seen any moves on Bears +2.5, so this means sharps only like Bears at +3 or more.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
- Sharp angle: Ravens (-2.5)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
The public sees Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints (4-1) getting points and can’t lay off. But the Goodfellas are fading the trendy dog in this one.
Baltimore opened as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Despite 55% of spread bets taking the Saints plus the points, the line has remained frozen at Baltimore -2.5. In fact, the juice has moved further in Baltimore’s favor (-2.5, -125). Some books have even moved to Baltimore -3.
The wiseguys grabbed the -2.5 early before it moved to the key number of 3.
The Ravens also enjoy a valuable bets vs. dollars discrepancy– they’re only getting 45% of bets but 70% of dollars, another sign of big respected wagers laying the points, not grabbing them.
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