Before the NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with the Wild Card Round, our experts are jumping into the Super Bowl futures market and making early picks.
The playoff field this season features an intriguing mix of surprising teams (Panthers, Patriots, Jaguars, Bears and Steelers) and old stalwarts (49ers, Eagles, Bills, Packers).
Continue below to find out which teams our experts found value in for their 2025-26 Super Bowl picks.
NFL Super Bowl Futures Picks
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Jaguars (+1500)
By Billy Ward
This has been a strange NFL season in that there aren't any truly great teams, especially in the AFC, which John alluded to above.
Two former MVPs missed the playoffs, while another (Josh Allen) saw his team struggle at times, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. It makes sense to lean into that chaos for a Super Bowl future, with the idea of setting up some potential hedges if a long-shot pick can advance a round or two.
The Jaguars have close to coin-flip odds to beat the Bills at home on Saturday, which sets up a potential matchup with the Broncos or Patriots depending on how the rest of the bracket shakes out – though a Chargers upset of New England would get Jacksonville the Houston/Pittsburgh winner, which would be even better for this pick.
The only potential second-round matchup I'd be somewhat nervous about would be the Patriots. Denver's defense has been more good than great, while the offense has been wildly inconsistent — plus Jacksonville just beat them 34-20 in Denver a few weeks ago.
This means if the Jaguars can get through the Bills, we'd be in a perfect position to hedge out on a +1500 ticket as soon as next week before the Divisional Round, but ideally in the Conference Championship round depending on matchup.
The worst matchup is unfortunately the most likely — a divisional round game in Foxboro against the Patriots — but even then we could set up a slight hedge (relative to our original +1500 odds) and still be in a great position to come out ahead. That position grows even stronger if the Jaguars make it to the AFC title game, which isn't all that much of a long shot at this point.
Effectively, we can lock in a profit and have potential for a big payout as long as we can get one win from Jacksonville, which is a bet I'm willing to take.
I like the Bears in the NFC for similar reasons — their best odds are +2200 at DraftKings — though their path is slightly more difficult.
Pick: Jaguars +1500 (Caesars)
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AFC South (Jaguars/Texans) +600
By Evan Abrams
In a year of the unexpected, I land on picking the unexpected here.
Teams who enter the playoffs on long winning streaks rarely win it all — just what history tells us. In a field with quarterbacks who have limited playoff experience, and where there is experience, in Buffalo and Pittsburgh, there are a number of flaws that I believe hold those teams back.
For the Jaguars, they have been a dominant force on both sides of the ball since their bye week:
Jacksonville since its bye in Week 8:
- Offense: 7th EPA/play; 11th success rate
- Defense: 3rd EPA/play; 7th success rate
Looking at their game against the Bills, I point to Buffalo’s run defense. This season, Liam Coen and the Jaguars have faced four teams allowing 4+ yds per rush on the ground — the Jags are 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 19 PPG.
Now, the Texans. Everything is seemingly against them in Pittsburgh.
- 0-6 SU in road playoff games in franchise history.
- Dome teams are 18-26-1 ATS over the last 20 years in outdoor playoff games.
- Steelers & Aaron Rodgers dominance on MNF.
I focus more on the matchups on the field here, especially from Houston’s defense.
The Texans have allowed an average of 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Rodgers only faced one team in November or later with that mark this year — the Steelers lost 25-10 at the Chargers in Week 10.
Houston is second in EPA/play ondefense over the full season — in first are the Seahawks, who Pittsburgh lost to in Week 2 (31-17.
This season, Rodgers’ two-lowest games in pass success rate? Week 10 vs. Chargers and Week 2 vs. Seahawks.
Let’s get through Wild Card weekend and then we can reassess. In a year where “Stranger Things” was a major topic, let’s embrace the upside down.
Pick: AFC South (Jaguars/Texans) +600 (BetMGM)
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Patriots (+1000)
Every AFC team in the NFL playoffs has a major flaw that can be argued as the simple reason as to why they cannot make a Super Bowl run.
The case against the Patriots will almost certainly revolve around their soft regular season schedule. Sure, they may have an extra loss or two had they played a tougher slate of opponents, but this is still a team that has lost just once since Sept 21. That loss came at the hands of the Bills in a game in which the Patriots averaged 7.5 yards per play to Buffalo’s 5.2, a significant margin.
It is also worth noting only two teams have played easier schedules over the last 35 years, the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams – both of those teams also finished with three losses and made the Super Bowl.
New England’s rush defense has been stout this season – the Patriots are one of only four playoff teams that ranked in the top 10 in both adjusted line yards and yards per carry allowed. This will put more of the onus on quarterbacks – the likes of Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud – to consistently move the chains on third downs to sustain drives.
Justin Herbert is the most skilled signal-caller the Patriots will face on their road to the Super Bowl, but his supporting cast without Joe Alt simply does not have the personnel to keep pace with this Patriots offense. The Chargers have averaged 14.7 points per game in their four road games since the loss of Alt to injury.
I believe it’s unlikely the Patriots will see Josh Allen for a third time. I am very comfortable riding with the Drake Maye-led Patriots offense against the remaining teams in the AFC.
If the AFC title game matchup ends up being in Denver, I love the matchup for the Patriots considering Maye has dealt with pressure better than any quarterback in football. Maye leads all playoff quarterbacks in yardage gained on scrambles (462) and passer rating under pressure (90.4)
Pick: Patriots +1000 (BetMGM)
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Eagles (+950)
The reigning Super Bowl champions may have been uninspiring for most of the regular season, but the Eagles remain well equipped to repeat in 2026.
The Eagles have one of the most complete teams across the board with blue-chip players you’d want at nearly every key position. The problem hasn’t been talent, but execution — they've tended to play down to the competition and coast in games this season.
Even though the Seahawks have the NFC 1-seed, there’s zero doubt in my mind that the Eagles could go there and win. The Eagles' pass defense has been on another level — only two quarterbacks were able to top 200 pass yards on them (Dak Prescott in Week 12 and Josh Allen in Week 17).
The road through the NFC is fairly manageable from a matchup standpoint and they’d likely be favored over any AFC opponent on a neutral field for the Super Bowl.
If they play to their potential, the Eagles should win the Super Bowl comfortably like last season.
Pick: Eagles +950 (DraftKings)
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