NFL Super Bowl Futures with Value: Time to Buy Low on the Patriots?

NFL Super Bowl Futures with Value: Time to Buy Low on the Patriots? article feature image

Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12).

  • The Patriots suffered their first loss of the season in Week 9, and saw their Super Bowl chances decrease a bit as a result.
  • After running 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, we've determined if there's any value in taking the Pats to win Super Bowl 54 at the current number.

The New England Patriots’ undefeated season came to an end after a 37-20 loss to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Lamar Jackson had his way against what many considered to be the best defense in the league.

Baltimore’s quarterback went 17 for 23 for 163 passing yards and a touchdown, while adding 61 yards on the ground and two scores. Mark Ingram also punished the Pats’ run defense, accumulating 115 yards.

New England’s defense had allowed only 7.6 points per game before facing the Ravens and hadn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season. It wasn’t just the defense that struggled.

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Tom Brady threw an interception in the fourth quarter, the Pats had a fumble returned for a touchdown and the team was penalized seven times for 48 yards. Then there were some questionable decisions made by Bill Belichick, who chose to punt on fourth down in Ravens territory and kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the one.

It was a bad performance all around for Brady & Co. While it is easy to talk about how the Ravens exposed the Patriots on Sunday night, it is important not to overreact to one game.

There were elements of New England’s performance that are unlikely to repeat, such as a fumble being returned for a touchdown. The Patriots have committed only 13 turnovers that resulted in the opposing defense returning the ball for a touchdown since 2010.

New England is not done. The Patriots are still the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, though bookmakers did adjust the Pats’ odds. At PointsBet, the Patriots’ championship odds moved from +250 to +280.

We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule to determine the most likely Super Bowl champions. According to our model, the Patriots have a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs, a 49.5% chance to reach Super Bowl 54 and a 27.6% chance to win it all — the best marks in football.

At +280 odds, the implied probability of another Patriots Super Bowl is 26.3%. With our simulations projecting a New England championship 27.6% of the time, there is value in placing a wager at +280 odds.

The Patriots suffered their first loss, but the shift in their Super Bowl odds is an overreaction to one bad game. Smart gamblers can find value by buying low on New England.

There is even more value to be had in another Super Bowl contender according to our projections.

San Francisco 49ers to Win Super Bowl

  • Current odds: +700, Implied Probability: 12.5%
  • 49ers win championship 16.6% of the time

At the midpoint of the NFL season the 49ers are the last undefeated team. San Francisco ranks third in the league in points scored per game (29.4) and second in points allowed (12.8). It is not just traditional metrics that are high on the Niners. Per Football Outsiders, Jimmy Garoppolo is leading the No. 1 team by DVOA in the NFL.

Kyle Shanahan’s team is accomplishing all of this while missing key contributors. The Niners should start to get a few of these starters back over the next few weeks including left and right tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon.

All the numbers say the 49ers are the best team in the league, except one. Bookmakers list the Patriots (+280) and Saints (+450) as more likely Super Bowl champions. That is fine with us because we are getting value on the Niners. With a 16.6% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy the team’s odds should be closer to +500, not +700.

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