NFL Super Bowl Odds & Betting Picks: Patriots Slipping, New Team Emerges as Best Value Bet

NFL Super Bowl Odds & Betting Picks: Patriots Slipping, New Team Emerges as Best Value Bet article feature image

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

  • The Ravens (+240), Patriots (+500), Saints (+500) and 49ers (+750) are favored to win the Super Bowl.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the NFL season to determine which team is offering value to win the championship.

The Patriots have dominated the NFL for two decades. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick win with such consistency that it is shocking when New England isn’t victorious.

Sunday’s 28-22 loss to the Texans was the team’s second defeat in four games. Brady was a pedestrian 9-of-25 for 90 yards with an interception before leading late scoring drives. It was another disappointing performance for an offense that has been struggling.

At the start of the season, the Patriots and Brady were on fire, wining their first three games by a combined score of 106-17. TB12 averaged over 300 passing yards and threw seven touchdowns with no interceptions.

It has been a different story since Week 4. The team is averaging just 1.69 points per possession — 24th in the NFL during that time. Brady is completing only 59.2% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and six picks.

It is not all Brady’s fault. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries and the team’s receivers have not been getting open. The defense remains elite, ranking No. 1 in DVOA, but with Brady slipping it has not been enough to overcome the offense’s shortcomings.

People have been predicting the end of the Patriots dynasty for years only for Brady and Belichick to defy the odds. We aren’t saying the Pats are done and neither are the bookmakers.

New England is currently +500 ($100 to win $500) to win Super Bowl 54 at PointsBet. The Patriots trail only the Ravens (+240) as most likely champions according to the oddsmakers.

Odds as of Wednesday at 10:45 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule to determine the most likely Super Bowl champions. According to our model, the Patriots have a 100.0% chance to make playoffs, 34.2% chance to reach the Super Bowl and 17.7% chance to win it all.

Two losses in four weeks and New England is still one of the most likely champions. Most fanbases would love to be in the Patriots position. Though it is important to note that New England’s Super Bowl probability has declined from 27.6% a month ago when it was the most likely team to win it all.

At +500 odds, the implied probability of another Patriots Super Bowl is 16.7%. With our simulations projecting a New England championship 17.7% of the time, there is only a smidge of value in placing a wager at the current number.

There is, however, another team in the betting market that’s being much more significantly undervalued to win the Super Bowl according to our projections.

San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl

  • Current odds: +750, Implied Probability: 11.8%
  • 49ers win championship 18.1% of the time

Entering the stretch run of the season, the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league. San Francisco ranks second in the league in points scored per game (29.1) and second in points allowed (15.3). It is not just traditional metrics that are high on the Niners. Per Football Outsiders, Kyle Shanahan’s team is one of three squads that ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA.

Like the Patriots, the 49ers lost on Sunday and it was the team’s second defeat in four weeks. On paper that looks bad, but combined the losses were by six points and came against the Seahawks and Ravens — two of the best teams in the league.

The team’s recent swoon may be depressing their Super Bowl odds. At +750 odds, the 49ers are the fourth favorite behind the Ravens, Patriots and Saints (+500).

With a 18.1% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy the team’s odds should be closer to +450, not +750.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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