Week 5 NFL Bets: 5 Props Offering Value for Sunday’s Slate
Photo credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Williams
- Mike Randle breaks down his five favorite NFL prop bets for Sunday's main slate.
- See how to bet reception over/unders for Mike Williams, DaeSean Hamilton and more.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
My Sunday bets have hit at a 65% (13-7) rate this season. Here are five props with a Bet Quality of at least 9 for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 152-86-1 (63.3% win rate).
Chargers WR Mike Williams
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Receptions (+115)
Bet Quality: 10/10
Los Angeles wideout Mike Williams returns after missing last week’s game at Miami with a back injury. The timing is right for the Chargers receiving group: Travis Benjamin is questionable after also missing last week’s game, and Dontrelle Inman was placed on injured reserve.
Denver’s defense has struggled in all phases under first-year head coach Vic Fangio. The Broncos rank 27th overall in defensive DVOA, including 28th against the pass.
While Denver CB Chris Harris Jr. has seen limited time in the slot, look for him to focus his attention on Chargers star WR Keenan Allen, who ranks first at the position in targets, receptions and receiving yards. That leaves opportunities for Williams, who has pulled in three or more receptions in seven of his last nine games.
The +115 juice makes this 10-rated prop even more enticing. This season, 10-rated props are hitting at a 61% (73-45-1) rate.
Broncos WR DaeSean Hamilton
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Receptions (-148)
Bet Quality: 10/10
Fantasy owners have been patiently waiting for the former Penn State star to take a more prominent role in the Denver offense. After his last two games, it appears that time is now.
Hamilton has 11 targets and five receptions over Denver’s last two contests. He ranks ninth among all wide receivers in target separation (per PlayerProfiler) despite dealing with a hamstring injury this year.
The Chargers secondary has greatly suffered in the absence of safety Derwin James. Los Angeles currently is 30th in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Hamilton will likely draw Chargers CB Desmond King, who ranks a mediocre 32nd in coverage rating.
The Broncos will need to continue their short-area passing attack at Los Angeles, and Hamilton will serve as a safety valve for mistake-prone quarterback Joe Flacco.
Our FantasyLabs props tool projects Hamilton at 2.6 receptions, 53% over his implied total.
Bears QB Chase Daniel
THE PICK: Under 23.5 Passing Completions (-103)
Bet Quality: 9/10
The Bears travel to London to face an Oakland Raiders team playing its third consecutive road game. Chicago defensive end Khalil Mack has already stated the personal importance of this game after being traded from Oakland prior to last season.
This game features two of the top-10 slowest-paced teams in the NFL: The Bears ranks ninth, while the Raiders are last with an average of 30.6 seconds between plays. While the Raiders feature the ninth-best run defense DVOA, they will be missing a key piece with linebacker Vontaze Burfict suspended for the season.
The Bears totaled 33 rushing attempts in their 16-6 win last week and will likely profile run-heavy again with a backup quarterback making his first start of the season. Rookie RB David Montgomery has seen touch counts of 19, 16 and 24 in the past three weeks and should again be heavily involved on Sunday.
The low over/under in this game indicates a possible slow-paced, methodical match. We project Daniel at 19.9 completions — 17% below his implied total (23.8).
Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Receptions (+148)
Bet Quality: 10/10
Let’s stay in London for a moment.
The Bears defense is stout, ranking third in the league. However, they have allowed opposing wide receivers to still salvage quality fantasy weeks: Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs, Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders, and Washington’s Paul Richardson all totaled 15.8 PPR fantasy points or more.
Both Raiders starting wide receivers, Tyrell Williams and J.J. Nelson, are listed as questionable for this game, leaving Renfrow as potentially the healthiest wide receiving option.
While Oakland’s Darren Waller leads all tight ends with 33 receptions, Renfrow will have an advantage on Chicago CB Buster Skrine, who ranks 74th at his position by Pro Football Focus.
Oakland QB Derek Carr has averaged over 34 pass attempts over the last three games. I expect Renfrow to exceed the 2.5 reception total with Carr’s preferred short-to-intermediate route tree.
This 10-rated prop is returning favorable juice at +148. I would bet this down to +110.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-134)
Bet Quality: 9/10
Through the first four weeks, passing TD over props at a quality of 9 or higher have hit at a 71.4% (15-6) rate.
The Cardinals have struggled all season to stop opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 24.3 fantasy points per game. They are also one of only three teams that have allowed 10 or more passing touchdowns through the first four weeks. That is an average of 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Both teams have a projected total of 22 points or more, hinting at a likely shootout between two bad defenses.
In his last seven home games, Dalton has averaged 1.86 passing touchdowns and just 0.71 interceptions. Despite playing without injured wide receivers A.J. Green and John Ross, Dalton still has weapons in Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Tyler Eifert and more.
Dalton has struggled this year but could rebound in a big way against the generous Arizona defense. We project Dalton at 1.9 passing touchdowns, 20% over the implied total of 1.6. I would bet this prop up to -150.