Following a win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, the New England Patriots are set to take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The Patriots forced five turnovers — including four interceptions against C.J. Stroud — en route to a convincing victory. The Broncos, meanwhile, outlasted the Buffalo Bills in overtime but lost Bo Nix for the season.
Here are the opening Patriots vs Broncos odds for the AFC Championship Game.
Patriots vs Broncos Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -215 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Patriots Preview
Potential NFL MVP Drake Maye leads the Patriots back into the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2018.
New England’s downfield passing attack has been a revelation, leading the league in explosive pass rate at nearly one every five attempts. The rushing attack has been inconsistent, but explosive with rookie TreVeyon Henderson doing his part.
New England has benefited from one of the softest schedules in recent history, easiest against both offenses and defenses by DVOA, and the Patriots were just 1-2 in the regular season against .500 teams. It’s been injury luck in the playoffs now too, but you can only beat the teams in front of you.
This Patriots' run defense was terrible down the stretch but has gotten a huge boost with the return of Milton Williams. New England absolutely stifled Woody Mark and the rest of the Texans' RBs in the Divisional Round.
Still, this is Maye’s team, and the Patriots will go as far as their MVP takes them — and now they’re one win away from another Super Bowl.
Broncos Preview
The Broncos started the season 1-2 but have lost only once since, and now the AFC road to the Super Bowl ends in Denver.
But who will play quarterback?
It was a cruel twist of fate for the Broncos, who won their playoff opener in overtime against the Bills but lost Bo Nix in the final minutes, leaving unheralded backup QB Jarrett Stidham in line to start the AFC Championship Game.
Denver’s identity starts with Vance Joseph’s defense, which leads most league metrics in pressures and does an excellent job limiting explosive plays. But that defense ranked near the bottom of the league in takeaways before recording five against Buffalo, and it’s faded from great to good, even average over the back half of the season, especially against the pass.
Denver’s offense has risen, though, right as the defense has faded, with a strong second half of the season by Nix. Sean Payton’s offense actually ranked in the top quarter of the league by DVOA over the final third of the season, both rushing and passing, and Denver had become a much more balanced team.
Is that still a winning formula for the Broncos with a KC out? That remains to be seen.
It’s Stidham’s offense now. How will Payton protect his veteran journeyman signal-caller? Can elite defense and home-field advantage get the Broncos back to the Super Bowl?
