Our football staff has locked in picks for both of Sunday's playoff games for our NFL predictions for the Divisional Round on January 18.
First, we'll target Texans vs. Patriots in the early window, followed by our best bets for Rams vs. Bears later in the evening.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for Sunday of the Divisional Round.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Divisional Round Sunday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs Patriots Spread Prediction
The Texans defense can take control of a game at a moment's notice.
We saw the havoc the Texans' defensive unit can create on display against the Steelers on Monday night, when the Houston defense scored two touchdowns late to pull away in the fourth quarter.
The chaos this unit can cause is unprecedented. Pair this with the Patriots' inflated statistics thanks to their weak strength of schedule metrics, and the pick for this matchup is easy.
The Texans beat the Steelers despite C.J. Stroud turning the ball over three times last week. This is not likely to be replicable.
The Texans will learn from their mistakes, scheme up mistake-free football, and let their defense take control of this game.
Pick: Texans +3 (+100)
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Texans vs Patriots Over/Under Pick
The Texans have the best defense in the league, but they might have the worst offense left in the NFL playoffs.
Certainly, the Patriots offense should have more success than a team like the Steelers, but this is going to be tough sledding.
On the flip side, we saw the Patriots flummox Justin Herbert with pressure, and CJ Stroud can be limited in a very similar fashion.
Add in the fact that Houston lost their one big time playmaker (Nico Collins) to a concussion against the Steelers, and we should have an old fashioned slugfest in this one.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110)
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Rams vs Bears Team Total Bet
By Stuckey
I think the Rams get to at least 27 points in this game.
I don't want to mess around with the Bears' voodoo. The Bears have gone down multiple scores in several games; they have seven wins when trailing with under two minutes to go, which is an NFL record.
Meanwhile, I think we'll see the Rams do whatever they want on offense in this game. They could line up and run the ball as they please here.
The Bears' defense ranks 28th in overall DVOA, 26th in success rate, and 30th in EPA per play, sans turnovers.
Chicago is first in turnover margin and takeaways, and that's not going to last forever. The Bears' run defense is 28th in DVOA and 27th in rush success rate.
So, let's isolate the Rams team total over in this spot.
Pick: Rams Team Total Over 26.5 (-115)
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Rams vs Bears Spread Pick
By Dylan Wilkerson
The Rams are the unluckiest team remaining in the playoffs, according to Action Network's luck rankings. This is an indication that positive regression is due.
On the flip side, the Bears rank as the 2nd-luckiest team in the NFL. This is an indication that regression to the mean may also be due for the Bears.
The Bears rank 1st in turnover differential, 27th in total penalties, and 18th in red-zone touchdown conversion rate.
The Rams are more disciplined, more efficient, and more experienced. I think we'll see them dismantle the Bears in this matchup and punch their ticket to the NFC Championship Game.
Pick: Rams -4 (-110)
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