NFL Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting Broncos vs. Chargers
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers
- Professional bettors have made their picks for Week 5, including taking a stance on Broncos vs. Chargers at 4:05 p.m. ET.
- Using The Action Network's suite of tools, let's analyze how sharps they're moving the betting odds.
It’s an unbalanced schedule in Week 5 with 10 games on the 1 p.m. slate and just two starting after 4 p.m. Here is how sharp bettors are playing Week 5.
Odds as of Saturday night. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
1 p.m. ET | FOX
The Bucs’ performance in L.A. caused some serious market adjustments. Lookahead lines from before Week 4’s action had New Orleans favored by 6.5 points. If the Bucs struggled in L.A., we could be looking at NO -7 right now.
Instead, the line has settled in on the other key number.
After the line re-opened at NO -4.5 this week, tons of money went toward Tampa. Early in the week, more than 70% of the cash came in on the Bucs, moving them from +4.5 down to +3. Since then, percentages have leveled off (TB with 44% of bets, 52% of dollars), but there hasn’t been enough buyback on New Orleans to move the line back to 3.5.
Sharp Angle: Bucs (moved from +4.5 to +3)
Jaguars @ Panthers
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Who would’ve thought that a Gardner Minshew vs. Kyle Allen showdown would become one of the best games on the 1 p.m. slate? It’s a bizarre NFL world we live in these days.
Not surprisingly, Minshew’s Jags are getting a bit of public love as the dog. I’m more interested in the over/under, though, which has dropped to an even 40 thanks to the sharps.
The total opened at 41 and sat there for several days before a steam move caused it to fall to 40 on Friday. Currently, 60% of the public is on the over, but 60% of the money is on the under.
Sharps liked the under in last week’s windy Jags-Broncos game, too, but Minshew proved to be too much … nothing can stop him! Will the sharps get vengeance this week or will the mustachioed rookie send this game over the total again?
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 41 to 40)
Patriots @ Redskins
1 p.m. ET | CBS
University of Texas fans probably thought Colt McCoy would have eclipsed Tom Brady as the NFL’s best quarterback by about 2013. Instead, McCoy is starting his third game since 2015 and is over a two-touchdown underdog at home.
There is some uncertainty surrounding the Patriots’ offense after it scored just 16 points against Buffalo, but there’s no uncertainty about their defensive prowess. Add these two things together and you get a game that could be pretty low-scoring.
Last week, lookahead lines had this total at 47.5. I feel bad for anyone who took that over. This week, it opened at 45.5 and has continued to drop.
Two steam moves have hit the under since then — one at 45.5 and one at 42.5. This isn’t a sharp vs. square affair, either, as two thirds of the bets and more than 90% of the loot is on the under.
All of these factors explain why the line is down to just 42.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 45.5 to 42)
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
This is one of the two games in the 4 p.m. window. Great planning, NFL schedulers!
The winless Broncos head to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, who are feeling nice and warm inside after cruising to a win in Miami. The Broncos may be winless, but they’re certainly not as bad as the Dolphins.
The line and line movement reflects that sportsbooks don’t think the Broncos are anything like the Dolphins, either. The Chargers were favored by 15 points on the road in Miami, but are just -6 at home vs. Denver.
Given their records and reputations, one may have imagined that the Chargers would’ve moved from -6.5 to -7 or -7.5 after opening. Instead, they’re down to -6 thanks to big money on the Broncos. Denver’s getting 45% of bets, but 70% of dollars. Perhaps they won’t get their first win of the season, but big bettors expect them to keep it close.
Sharp Angle: Broncos (moved from +6.5 to +6)