The Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears are set to face off in the NFL Divisional Round on Sunday, January 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Rams are favored by -4.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 48.5 points. The Rams are -198 favorites on the moneyline, while the Bears are +164 home underdogs.
Let's get into my Divisional Round preview, which includes my Rams vs Bears predictions for tonight's game.
Rams vs Bears Prediction
- Rams vs Bears pick: Rams Team Total Over 26.5 (up to 27)
My Rams vs Bears best bet is the over on the Rams' Team Total. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Rams vs Bears Odds
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -102 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -118 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
Rams vs Bears Divisional Round Preview
Bears Betting Preview
The Bears' magical season continued for at least one more week after a thrilling comeback victory over the Packers in a game the Bears trailed 21-3 at the half and then again by 11 with six minutes to go.
Without an insane throw by Caleb Williams on 4th and 8 down 27-16 with 5:37 remaining, we are likely talking about Green Bay traveling to Seattle and the Rams hosting the 49ers. But the cardiac kids did it again (with help from kicker Brandon McManus), notching their NFL record seventh victory when trailing with under two minutes left in regulation.
- Raiders by 1
- Commanders by 1
- Bengals by 4
- Giants by 4
- Vikings by 2
- Packers by 6
- Packers by 4
Amazingly, all of those wild wins came against the Packers and five non-playoff teams. The Bears were certainly lucky to finish with an 11-6 record and easily could have only won eight or so games if a few bounces didn't go their way.
Speaking of which, Chicago certainly benefited from turnover luck with a league-leading +22 turnover margin during the regular season — five more than the next-highest team (Houston), thanks in large part due to an NFL-leading 33 takeaways, including 23 interceptions.
It also didn't hurt that the Bears only lost four of 15 fumbles (26.6%), while recovering 10 of their opponents' 17 (58.8%). Williams also got pretty fortunate to only throw seven interceptions despite 19 turnover-worthy plays (per PFF) in the regular season.
That's just not a sustainable way to make a living in the NFL, but anything can happen in a one-game scenario with an oblong ball.
Can Chicago continue its remarkable run for one more week against a Rams team that has shown a few more cracks over the past month? Let's dive in.
Rams Betting Preview
The Rams are the rightful favorites here, but will have to deal with the bitter cold and a raucous Chicago home crowd that should have Soldier Field shaking throughout.
I actually don't think the Los Angeles offense will have many issues dealing with the elements against an overmatched Chicago defense that can't stop a nose bleed without taking the ball away.
Look no further than last year's game in snowy Philadelphia against the eventual Super Bowl champs. Los Angeles had a chance to win that game and Matthew Stafford looked spectacular throughout. Plus, the Ram's running backs and receivers have played in plenty of cold-weather games in the past.
On the season, the Bears defense ranks 28th DVOA, 26th in Success Rate and 30th in EPA per Play without turnovers. That could spell doom against the best offense in the NFL that ranks first in all three respective categories.
If we remove the four games the Rams played against the elite defenses of Seattle, Philadelphia, and Houston, they averaged 32.4 points per game, getting to at least 27 points in 11 of those 14. Keep in mind they also scored in the high-30's against the Seahawks in one of their two meetings and easily should've got there against the Eagles if not for kicking woes (which they have since addressed with the addition of Harrison Mevis).
Yes, Stafford's finger and Adams' hamstring are worth mentioning (especially in the cold), but I think Los Angeles will get to at least 27 against a putrid Chicago stop unit that ranks 23rd in points allowed despite all of that aforementioned turnover luck.
For what it's worth, including last week's Wild Card round, Chicago allowed at least 27 points in four of the six games it played against playoff teams (and two of those matchups came against the anemic Philadelphia and Pittsburgh offenses).
When the temperatures are this frigid, offenses are certainly impacted, but I think this total has come down too far.
Even if head coach Sean McVay decides to go more run-heavy, the Rams should feast on the ground against a Bears defense that finished the regular season as one of only four that allowed at least five yards per carry. Plus, they will be shorthanded at linebacker and will especially miss TJ Edwards. Without him on the field, Chicago allowed a whopping 5.7 yards per rush attempt.
With the return of Kevin Dotson (who PFF ranks as the third-best run-blocking offensive linemen in the league), the Rams should get whatever they want with Blake Corum and Kyren Williams, which should set up an abundance of easy play-action shots downfield for Stafford, who won't have to worry too much about pressure in the pocket against an anemic pass rush.
A rational fear with clearing a team total of 26.5 would be the Rams jump out to an early lead and then sit on it. However, I don't envision that happening here, especially since they know how feisty this Bears team can be playing from behind in the fourth quarter. After all, they scored 25 fourth-quarter points just last week!
Plus, I do believe the Bears will have success on offense and put up enough points to force Los Angeles to keep its foot on the gas throughout.
Williams still struggles with accuracy on a down-to-down basis, but he has continued to improve in Ben Johnsons' offense with each passing week. He'll also get to face what I consider an overrated Rams defense that has cratered over the past two months.
Over the first 12 weeks of the season, L.A.'s defense ranked No. 1 in EPA per Play. However, there was a lot of fools gold in those numbers due to some extremely favorable opponent matchups.
The Rams faced the Ravens with Cooper Rush and the Bucs with Teddy Bridgewater for most of the game, in addition to the Saints with Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward in his second start, and the Texans in the season opener after Houston had to shuffle its offensive line right before kick.
Well, over their past seven contests, the Rams defense has come crashing back down to earth, ranking 20th in EPA per Play despite facing the Panthers and Cardinals in four of those seven games. Los Angeles' opponents have averaged over 28 points per game over that stretch, getting to at least 27 in five of the seven (and 31-plus in four).
A major contributing problem has been a major uptick in explosive plays allowed, which is very concerning against a Chicago offense that ranks in the top-6 in both explosive runs and passes.
Explosive plays are an over bettor's best friend and there should be no shortage of those in this particular matchup of two offensive masterminds in McVay and Johnson, who have combined to draw up over 140 explosive pass plays this year.
Chicago's defense ranks dead last in pass explosiveness, which spells trouble against a Rams offense that ranks No. 1 in that department.
Additionally, I expect both coaches to be ultra-aggressive on fourth downs.
Rams vs Bears Prediction, Betting Analysis
At the current prices, my numbers do like the Rams and the over a bit, so I decided to combine those two leans and roll with the Rams team total over.
As a result, I don't have to worry about any late game Chicago shenanigans and am most confident in the biggest mismatch being the Los Angeles offense against the Chicago defense.
Pick: Rams Team Total Over 26.5; bet to 27
Rams vs Bears Player Props
Blake Corum Anytime Touchdown; Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards
From a prop perspective, I like Blake Corum for an anytime TD and his longest rush over 11.5 yards. Corum (who should be more than comfortable in these conditions after playing at Michigan) should benefit immensely from the return of Dotson based on his specific run types.
Corum's explosive run rate was significantly higher with Dotson in the lineup and he will face a Bears run defense that ranks 28th DVOA and 27th in Success Rate.
Chicago also allows explosive runs at an alarming rate with non-QBs (doesn't include long rushes by Geno Smith, Shedeur Sanders and Malik Willis) getting at least one rush for 12-plus yards in 15-of-18 games. In total, 23 non-QBs had a run of at least 12 yards across those 18 contests with multiple players eclipsing that mark seven times within the same game.
McVay may also opt to go more run-heavy with extremely heavy personnel in these conditions against a bad run defense. Plus, you never know when Kyren William's past fumble issues creep back up. Knowing the Bears prowess for punching at the ball and their turnover luck, it wouldn't surprise me to see Williams put the pill on the ground. The Rams are also favored in this game, so more likely to have a lead late in which they would go even more run-heavy.
If you're wondering, Corum had 23 rushes of 10-plus yards during the regular season and had at least one of 12 or more yards in 10 of 16 regular-season contests if you remove the opener when he only had one carry. Keep in mind he didn't really start to see workload increase until around Week 7 to boot.
I expect Corum to hit at least one long run in this game, likely on an outside zone carry to the right side (he averages one yard more per carry than Williams on those run types for what it's worth) against a Bears defense that ranks 30th against outside zone.
Spread
I lean Rams on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no bet for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
My lean for this total is the over, but ultimately I'm backing the Rams' team total specifically.
