Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD props for the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday, January 18.
If you plan to tail these NFL Divisional Round TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Divisional Round Sunday.
Texans vs. Patriots
Of all four games for the Divisional Round, this one has the lowest total, but some anytime touchdown odds haven’t moved enough to reflect the caliber of these defenses.
The Texans likely have the best defense left in the playoffs, and they’ve been stingy when it comes to touchdowns for pass-catchers, so I’m thinking this is a spot for Drake Maye to score a TD.
Maye hasn’t scored since Week 15, when he ran for two touchdowns vs. the Bills, but in the Wild Card game against the Chargers, we still saw him use his legs to scramble, as he finished with 10 rushing attempts and 66 rush yards.
Maye finished the season with only four rushing TDs, but he’s live to score in any given game because of his scrambling — he led all NFL quarterbacks in total scrambles and ranked second in the NFL in scrambles per game behind QB Patrick Mahomes.
The Texans defense should be able get pressure on the Patriots without blitzing, but Maye actually has a decent scramble rate against teams that don’t blitz, like the Chargers last week, who were bottom-five in blitz rate and he scrambled five times.
Texans WR Nico Collins is out this week with a concussion, which means QB C.J. Stroud’s passing options will be limited.
I’m not quite ready to write off the Texans putting up points, but Stroud’s shakiness in the pocket was a tough watch in the Wild Card Round.
While I would typically bet WR Jayden Higgins in this spot, my sights are set on WR Xavier Hutchinson at +500.
I expect Higgins to replace Collins in the WR1 role, and he’ll likely be matched up mostly with CB Christian Gonzalez, which should give Hutch some more opportunities on the other side to score.
In the two games Collins missed time, Higgins scored in both games, while Hutchinson scored once, but led the team in targets per route run in each contest.
I know WR Christian Kirk saw a usage bump last week, but I think that was a flash in the pan. With the way they’ve stacked the odds, you can likely bet half a unit on both Higgins and Hutchinson and walk away with a decent profit if either score.
I lean more to Hutchinson, as he has higher odds, but it’s hard to pass on Higgins in a WR1 role when he’s +300 or better.
Verdict: Drake Maye +380 | Jayden Higgins +350 | Xavier Hutchinson +500
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Rams vs. Bears
One of the first TD bets I locked in for the Divisional Round was Bears WR DJ Moore.
He didn’t see as many targets as rookie TE Colston Loveland, but was still the WR to run the most routes and he caught a TD vs. the Packers.
I know there’s more competition for targets with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden in the mix, but Moore is old faithful in this offense.
Over the second half of the regular season, Moore was leaned on heavily over the final eight games with Odunze out, scoring six of his seven TDs in that span, while routinely getting WR1 routes and usage.
We keep going back to Moore in this spot because his role in this offense is secure, regardless if another WR gets hot or a larger target share.
Facing a Rams defense that plays a lot like the Packers (heavy zone team, limits explosive plays), Moore could see a better matchup out of the slot as well, as he played in the slot at a 34% rate in the Wild Card game, after playing in the slot 31% of the time during the season, which is the highest rate of his career.
We also just saw another slot WR in Jalen Coker have a big game against this Rams defense and scored a TD, while seeing a career-high in receiving yards.
The Rams are difficult to pinpoint TD value on a weekly basis. There’s only so many touchdowns to go around. But I’m going to tail my colleague Sean Koerner on this one and take RB Blake Corum to score a touchdown in the Divisional Round.
Initially, I was looking at RB Kyren Williams at +125, but part of what makes me iffy is how much Corum has emerged in this offense. He saw 11 carries in the Wild Card game, and Koerner mentioned the Rams may lean on the run a bit more this week with QB Matthew Stafford dealing with a finger injury.
It's going to be freezing in Chicago, which could limit some passing upside for the Rams offense.
If Williams scores, then so be it, but at +275, I’m willing to back Corum to see more red-zone carries.
Koerner's model has Corum projected closer to +220 for his Anytime TD odds, so we love the value this week.
Verdict: DJ Moore +300 | Blake Corum +275
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