Week 7 didn't see any big upsets. The Philadelphia Eagles made it really close on Thursday Night Football and the Buffalo Bills were unable to score a touchdown, but at the end of the day all of the favorites made it through.
This week, once again, pools are gravitating towards two teams from New York and looking to bet against them. Is there a hidden option on the board worth taking? Should the Kansas City Chiefs be saved for later in the season?
Here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season to help us answer these questions.
Here are the top options for this week with the projected pick percentage and expected value.
| Team | Pick % | Model | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 31.8% | 94.3% | 1.31 |
| Buccaneers | 36.5% | 71.8% | 0.93 |
| Eagles | 7.5% | 66.7% | 0.93 |
| Ravens | 0.1% | 64.8% | 0.99 |
| Browns | 0.1% | 62.0% | 0.92 |
| Packers | 8.2% | 61.4% | 0.86 |
The Chiefs are the biggest favorites of the season. But the majority of users are actually picking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the NY Giants instead. Because of that, K.C. is offering a ton of expected value.
So the question becomes whether or not the Chiefs' future value outweighs their present value. You don't have to look too far ahead to see that the Chiefs are projected to be the biggest favorite next week when they host the Panthers.
The issue I have with saving the Chiefs is there isn't a great fallback option. I don't really want to follow the masses and swap to the Buccaneers if I have that option and the difference in win percentage is too much of a gap to switch to someone else.
My Pick: Chiefs over Jets
Sometimes you just have to take the value when it presents itself. When you get a chance to take the biggest favorite of the week and get a ton of expected value at the same time, you just have to do it.
