Eagles-Titans Betting Preview: Value on Marcus Mariota as Home Underdog?

Eagles-Titans Betting Preview: Value on Marcus Mariota as Home Underdog? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) walks on the field after the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field.

Betting odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

  • Spread: Eagles -3
  • Over/Under: 41 
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Marcus Mariota is back under center for Tennessee — not sure if that is a good thing — but just 32% of bettors are on the Titans at the time of writing (you can find updated data here).

This is becoming a usual thing, however, as the Titans have received 20% and 30% of bets the past two weeks, respectively. Of course, they won and covered each time.

Some sharp bets came in on the Titans at +4, pushing the line down to +3 (+105) on Thursday afternoon. — Mark Gallant


Trends to know: Since being drafted No. 2 overall in 2015, Marcus Mariota is 18-25-2 against the spread (-8.3 units) as a starter for the Titans, according to our Bet Labs data.

No active quarterback has been less profitable than Mariota, with only the recently retired Carson Palmer losing more money for bettors over that span (-10.5 units). — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The Eagles added starting safety Rodney McLeod (knee) to their growing injured reserve list, and Darren Sproles (hamstring) seems poised to miss at least another week.

Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) was cleared for contact and practiced in full Wednesday, but missed Thursday’s practice with an illness. The offense should welcome back Jay Ajayi (back), who practiced in full Thursday, despite acknowledging he’s playing through a back fracture.

Mariota (elbow) will start Sunday with Blaine Gabbert (concussion) sidelined. He’s expected to be joined by starting right tackle Jack Conklin (knee) for the first time this season, but slot receiver Rishard Matthews (personal) seemingly left the team and isn’t expected to suit up against the Eagles.

The defense expects to have safety Kendrick Lewis (foot) and cornerback Adoree Jackson (concussion), while kicker Ryan Succop (knee) should also be good to go come Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. Ian Hartitz


>> Check out Sports Insights’ Bet Signals to track sharp action for the NFL’s entire Week 4 slate.


DFS Edge: The Titans own the eighth-highest pass-rush grade through three weeks (PFF), which should be somewhat neutralized by the Eagles’ top-three pass-blocking grade.

Getting all-world left tackle Jason Peters (quad) back is so massive for this offense as is the return of Carson Wentz, who could be an intriguing tournament option at only $5,700 with a 70% leverage score in the FantasyLabs Models. — Joe Holka

Bet To Watch: Titans +4

While the consensus line is down to Eagles -3 (-130) at the time of writing (find updated odds here), there are still a few +4s out there (always shop for the best number).

The Titans are not a sexy pick, but you’ve got to give Mike Vrabel’s team credit for overcoming early obstacles this season.

Tennessee won two games with Gabbert starting — despite playing without their starting offensive tackles and their most consistent offensive weapon, Delanie Walker.

The Titans are getting little public support after scoring nine points a week ago, and facing the defending Super Bowl champions isn’t helping.

However, teams in a game after a poor offensive game are undervalued, having gone 389-336-15 (54%) ATS since 2003, according to our Bet Labs data. Home underdogs in this situation are 113-88-5 (56%) ATS in that time.

The Action Network model lists the Titans as 1-point underdogs. Bettors willing to take the Titans are getting a field goal worth of value on the home team. — John Ewing

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.