Best Eagles-Saints Divisional Round Props: Michael Thomas Over/Under 88.5 Receiving Yards?
Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas.
- There are two player props offering betting value in the late game on Sunday's Divisional Round slate.
- This piece will focus on Saints wide receivers Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn.
There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Eagles-Saints matchup on Sunday night, which kicks off at 4:40 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.
So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 10 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Saints WR Micheal Thomas
Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)
Thomas’ numbers this season were much better without Mark Ingram, averaging 11 targets and 111.3 receiving yards per game without him. Still, his 80 yards receiving and 8.6 targets per game are still quite good.
While his average receiving yards fall slightly below his prop, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be relied on in a playoff game of this magnitude.
He’ll also be in a favorable spot against an Eagles defense that has allowed 192.63 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers this year, the third-highest mark in the league, per Sports Info Solutions.
With the exception of Rasul Douglas (No. 31), the Eagles’ corner backs rank 53rd or worse in Pro Football Focus’ grades. But, as Ian Hartitz points out, Douglas has allowed team-worst marks in catch rate, yards allowed and yards after the catch.
Saints WR Tedd Ginn
Under 3.5 receptions (-114 at BetOnline)
Outside of keying in on Thomas’ 30% target share, Drew Brees typically spreads the ball around. Ginn has never been a volume receiver in his career: In his two seasons with Saints, he’s averaging just 5.4 targets and 3.9 receptions per game.
Along with the low volume, Ginn also sees targets that have a low percentage of being caught as he owns a massive average depth of target (aDOT) of 16.6 this season.
Overall, the Eagles have been about average on defending passes 15-plus yards downfield, surrendering a completion rate of 44.36% on such passes, which ranks 16th in the league.