The Buffalo Bills (4-1) and Atlanta Falcons (2-2) meet in the first game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader on October 13. Kickoff is set for in 7:15 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Bills are favored by -4 on the spread over the Falcons (Bills -4); the over/under is set at 50 total points. The Bills are -210 moneyline favorites and the Falcons are +170 underdogs.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Bills vs Falcons prediction.
Bills vs Falcons Prediction
- Bills vs Falcons pick: Falcons +4.5
My Bills vs Falcons best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best Monday Night Football odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Falcons Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 50 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 50 -110o / -110u | +170 |
Bills vs Falcons Monday Night Football Preview
Following an upset loss to the rival Patriots on Sunday Night Football, the Bills travel south to take on the Falcons on Monday Night Football.
The Bills are probably salty after that defeat, but I'm rolling with the home underdog Falcons.
While bye weeks tend to get overrated under new NFL rules, it should help Atlanta get healthier in this case — specifically at cornerback with the return of No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell, who should provide a major boost for a corner group without great depth. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney, however, still isn't ready to return from a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 4 and has been ruled out.
Not only do I see value in the spread for the Falcons in this spot, but I also don't mind the matchup against a Bills team that hasn't quite lived up to their rating over the past few weeks.
Following an improbable comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1, the Bills destroyed the Jets. But since that 2-0 start, they found themselves in wars at home against the Dolphins and Saints. Buffalo then lost outright at home to the Patriots as a favorite of over a touchdown.
A 4-1 record is nice, but the Bills team aren't playing elite football despite facing one of the league's easiest schedules thus far, with four of their first five games at Highmark Stadium.
So, what has been the main culprit for the Bills?
It's the defense, specifically against the run — though the secondary has also struggled at times. On the season, the Bills rank 28th in Rush EPA and 22nd in Rush Success Rate, which could spell trouble against a run-heavy Falcons offense led by stud Bijan Robinson.
Michael Penix Jr. should be in position to hit easy throws off play-action against the Bills' struggling secondary.
Bills vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. does a fantastic job of evading pressure behind a solid Falcons offensive line. That should negate the one primary strength of the Bills defense, which is getting to opposing quarterbacks. If all goes according to plan, the Falcons can control the clock and minimize how much Josh Allen is on the field.
When the Bills have the ball, Allen will certainly have success, but this is an improved Falcons defense that can generate pressure.
There's no way to shut down Allen completely, but Atlanta's defense frequently uses a high rate of zone coverage and blitz, which has historically been the best approach to slowing down No. 17.
Still need convincing? Our Director of Research Evan Abrams has some trends supporting the Falcons spread in this spot:
- Since 2021, the Bills have played consecutive night games nine times. In that second night game, they are 2-7 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
- When the second game is on the road, the Bills as a franchise are 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in since division realignment in 2002.
Pick: Falcons +4.5
Spread
My pick for Bills-Falcons is Atlanta to cover the spread.
Moneyline
While I like Atlanta to cover, I am shying away from their moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total .
