The Atlanta Falcons (2-2) host the Buffalo Bills (4-1) in the first game of our Monday Night Football doubleheader on October 13. Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Bills are 3.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Bills -3.5), with the over/under set at 50 total points. Buffalo is a -210 favorite to win outright on the moneyline while Atlanta is +170 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Bills vs Falcons picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total and two player props.
Bills vs Falcons Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Monday Night Football Odds
- Bills vs Falcons Moneyline: Bills -3.5 (-115), Falcons +3.5 (-105)
- Bills vs Falcons Spread: Bills -210, Falcons +170
- Bills vs Falcons Total: 50
Bills vs Falcons odds via bet365
Bills vs Falcons Spread Prediction
I never considered the Bills a Super Bowl contender heading into 2025 because their defense can't get stops when they are counted upon.
The Patriots averaged six yards per play against the Bills on Sunday Night Football, which led to the upset, and prior to that, the Bills struggled to win with margin against the Saints and Dolphins.
With the Falcons coming off a bye, I expect a well-prepared team that will lean heavily on Bijan Robinson.
Buffalo is 30th in rush defense DVOA, with more than 20% of all runs against them going for 10+ yards — the highest rate in the league.
You always hear the talking point of a team potentially controlling the clock and limiting possessions, but the Falcons can actually accomplish it tonight, in addition to using the running game to create explosive plays.
The Falcons have outgained their opponents in every game this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see their offense generate more yards than the Bills in this spot.
On the surface, it's pretty simple to see, the home team is catching points while boasting the third-ranked defense in terms of yards per play allowed. The Bills rank 17th in that same category, defensively.
I am thrilled to get more than 4 points with Atlanta and I’d play this down to +4.
Pick: Falcons +4.5 (-112); Bet to +4
Bills vs Falcons Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Falcons have one of the most underrated defenses in the league. They rank 16th in points per game allowed, but they are first in overall DVOA, led by a defensive line that ranks third in adjusted sack rate.
That should be enough to at least slow, if not stop entirely, the Bills offense.
Buffalo has the ability to put up big scoring totals when needed, but it has largely been content to play ball-control football when possible, ranking 30th in overall pace and pace of play when the game is within one score.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta ranks 30th in PROE on offense, and Buffalo ranks 32nd in PROE on defense – meaning teams choose to run the ball more, adjusted for the score of the game, against Buffalo than any other team.
Those factors should combine to limit the number of possessions in this one, and both defenses should be able to find the occasional stop.
With the total creeping all the way up to 50, I’m pivoting and taking the under.
Pick: Under 50 (-110)
Bills vs Falcons Player Props: Bijan Robinson
By Derek Carty
There is value on Bijan Robinson's rush attempts prop tonight.
THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 14.63 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 18.65. The model believes there is a 69% chance he records fewer than 16.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +106.
This play is good to at least -152.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Bijan Robinson Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (+106)
Bills vs Falcons Player Props: Drake London
Drake London has been a bit of a disappointment this season with just one touchdown thus far after having nine last season.
The Falcons have been running the ball at one of the highest clips in the league this season and they will likely rely heavily on the ground game again tonight — still, the odds are a bit too high for London here.
London gets a favorable matchup against the Bills, who have struggled with WR1s this season.
London is far too talented for the Falcons not to give him more work in the red zone.
I have the true odds around +120, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+160)
