The Detroit Lions (4-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) face off in the Week 6 edition of Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Chiefs are favored by -2.5 points on the spread over the Lions (Chiefs -2.5); the over/under is 52.5 points. The Chiefs are -135 moneyline favorites and the Lions are +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lions vs Chiefs predictions for Sunday Night Football on October 12.
Lions vs Chiefs Prediction
- Lions vs Chiefs pick: Chiefs -2.5
My Lions vs Chiefs best bet is the Chiefs to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Lions vs Chiefs Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Lions vs Chiefs Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: All data is via PFF unless otherwise noted.
The Lions have been absolute cover machines under head coach Dan Campbell with a 51-21-1 (71%) against the spread (ATS) mark, according to our Action Labs data, but this spot sets up as more likely to fall into the 29% bucket against a Chiefs squad that has covered 71% of the time in the Patrick Mahomes era when coming off a loss with odds of -7 or shorter, per Action Labs.
But more importantly, the Chiefs are fully healthy — sporting the rare zero DNPs at Friday practice and zero players listed on the final injury report — while the Lions had eight DNPs and have already ruled out six, with two more game-time calls. Almost all of them significant — perhaps none more so than starting left tackle Taylor Decker (out; shoulder).
Since Jared Goff joined the Lions in 2021, Decker has allowed a pressure rate of 6.0% and a sack rate of 1.0% on pass-blocking opportunities.
Decker's replacement, 2024 fourth-round pick Giovanni Manu, allowed nearly twice those rates (9.7% pressure; 1.9% sack) across 103 regular and preseason snaps this season in 2025. It's not a good sign for Goff that Detroit's starting left tackle on Sunday night will be Dan Skipper, a player who could not even beat out Manu (IR; knee), and who has allowed similarly poor rates since Goff joined the team (9.6% pressure, 1.7%).
The Chiefs are 10th in Expected Points Added per Pass (0.023), according to rbsdm.com, and 13th in pressure rate (20.2%) according to Pro-Football-Reference.
Given Goff's pressure splits, Decker's injury looks to be a significant blow for the Lions.
- Goff clean: 85.1% completion rate, 12 TDs, 1 INT, 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate, 84.3 PFF grade (13th of 38)
- Goff pressured: 52.3%, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5.2% TWP% , 40.9 PFF (34th)
Goff tends to struggle more in road games in relative terms, averaging one full passing TD per game less (1.3 vs. 2.3) and 1.1 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt less (7.6 vs. 8.7) since 2022, per PFR, but he's still better than most quarterbacks in those spots with a 13-5 ATS record (72%), per Action Labs.
He should have the benefit of a strong run game with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery against a Chiefs defense that ranks 31st in EPA per Rush (0.074), but that also depends how well Detroit's injury-ravaged defense holds up.
The Lions have an elite defense at fifth in EPA Per Play (-0.061), but we've seen how quickly that can change when they are suffering through a rash of injuries, which is again the case.
They'll be without their top two corners (Terrion Arnold, D.J. Reed), and both halves of their elite safety duo of Brian Branch (ankle) and Kerby Joseph (knee) are game-time decisions after not practicing Friday.
The Chiefs have left wins on the table against the Eagles and Jaguars this season thanks to fluky goal-line interceptions, but Patrick Mahomes has gone from completing 59.2% of passes for 6.4 YPA in Weeks 1-3 to 69.2% and 7.5, respectively, in Weeks 4-5 with Xavier Worthy back in the fold.
Worthy, Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton give Mahomes options downfield against man coverage that he hasn't had in the past, and even more key is that the offensive line has held up, allowing Mahomes to be sacked on 3.7% of dropbacks (sixth-best) and ranking second in PFF's Pass-Blocking Effiency metric.
Lions vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Lions have covered in 72% of Goff's outdoor road starts since 2022, that mark is a bit deceiving.
Detroit's average ATS differential is negative at -0.36, and its record drops to 3-3 in spots in which the Lions are underdogs by +3 or less.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (to -3)
Favorite Long-Shot Parlay: +1200 (DraftKings)
- Chiefs -2.5 (-112): The Lions' 10 losses since 2023 have come by an average of 10.2 points, with 9-of-10 by 3+.
- Jared Goff 2+ interceptions (+384): Goff has thrown multiple picks 40% of the time in losses since 2023. These odds imply 26%.
- Jared Goff 38+ pass attempts (+247): Goff is averaging 43.5 pass attempts in those losses, with 39 or more attempts 70% of the time.
For a "safer" version of the parlay, Chiefs -2.5, Goff 1+ INT and Goff 34+ pass attempts pays out at +360. Goff has thrown 1+ INT in seven of his last 10 losses and 34+ attempts in 10-of-10.
Spread
My spread pick for Sunday Night Football is the Chiefs to cover -2.5.
Moneyline
I don't mind the Chiefs moneyline at -150 or better as a hedge on the spread, but it's more profitable to bet on a larger margin if you like K.C.
Only one of the 10 Lions' losses since 2023 have come by less than three points, and 7-of-10 have been by at least six points, including four losses by 14-plus.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total.
This depends on game script, but it's worth noting trends favor unders when the Chiefs are favored at Arrowhead in the Andy Reid era (59-31-1, 66%).
