Pennsylvania Pressure: Steelers, Eagles Failing to Meet Early Vegas Expectations

Oct 05, 2018 2:51 PM EDT
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles have started the 2018 regular season 1-3 against the spread.
  • Since 2003, teams with a preseason Vegas win total of higher than 10 that are under .500 ATS through four games finish the regular season with a 60.3% ATS win pct.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles entered the 2018 season on a short list of three teams with a win total higher than 10 (New England Patriots).

Through a quarter of the season, the Eagles and Steelers are both 1-3 against the spread and letting down bettors who backed them early in the year.

Can the Eagles and Steelers Get Back on Track?

Since 2003, 18 different teams entered a season with a preseason win total higher than 10 and an ATS record below .500 through their first four games. Those 18 teams combined to finish with an ATS win percentage of 60.3% for the remainder of the regular season.

Those teams combined for a straight-up record of 184-104 (63.90%) and an ATS of 126-83-7 (60.3%) in their final 12 games, profiting bettors a total of $3,801 if you had wagered $100 on each of those 200-plus games.

Here are a few facts and trends about the 18 different teams, before the Steelers and Eagles this season, to start under .500 against the spread:

  • Seventeen of the 18 teams finished the regular season with a SU record of .500 or better.
  • Twelve of the 18 teams netted out a profit over their final 12 regular-season games.
  • Eleven of the 18 teams ended up making the playoffs.
  • Two made the Super Bowl and only one of the 18 teams ended up winning it all: 2014 New England Patriots.

What to Expect From Here on Out

In the preseason, CG Technology released point spreads for the first 16 weeks of the NFL regular season.

From Week 5 to Week 16, the Steelers were projected to be favored in eight of 10 games, with only their Week 16 game in New Orleans being a spot where they were listed as an underdog (+1).

The Eagles were projected to be favored in six of 10 games from Weeks 5 to 16, with Week 11 in New Orleans (+2) and Week 15 in Los Angeles against the Rams (+1) their two games in which they were projected to be listed as underdogs over that stretch.

Entering the regular season, the Eagles and Steelers both had almost a 75% chance to make the playoffs, according to the implied probability odds. Now, four games into the season, the Eagles are down to a 53% chance to reach them, while the Steelers are down to just 30% to clinch a berth.

The question remains, it is time to back the “Pennsylvania Powers” from the AFC and NFC?

Follow Evan Abrams on Twitter
@EvanHAbrams
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