Pennsylvania Pressure: Steelers, Eagles Failing to Meet Early Vegas Expectations
- The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles have started the 2018 regular season 1-3 against the spread.
- Since 2003, teams with a preseason Vegas win total of higher than 10 that are under .500 ATS through four games finish the regular season with a 60.3% ATS win pct.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles entered the 2018 season on a short list of three teams with a win total higher than 10 (New England Patriots).
Through a quarter of the season, the Eagles and Steelers are both 1-3 against the spread and letting down bettors who backed them early in the year.
Can the Eagles and Steelers Get Back on Track?
Since 2003, 18 different teams entered a season with a preseason win total higher than 10 and an ATS record below .500 through their first four games. Those 18 teams combined to finish with an ATS win percentage of 60.3% for the remainder of the regular season.
Those teams combined for a straight-up record of 184-104 (63.90%) and an ATS of 126-83-7 (60.3%) in their final 12 games, profiting bettors a total of $3,801 if you had wagered $100 on each of those 200-plus games.
Here are a few facts and trends about the 18 different teams, before the Steelers and Eagles this season, to start under .500 against the spread:
- Seventeen of the 18 teams finished the regular season with a SU record of .500 or better.
- Twelve of the 18 teams netted out a profit over their final 12 regular-season games.
- Eleven of the 18 teams ended up making the playoffs.
- Two made the Super Bowl and only one of the 18 teams ended up winning it all: 2014 New England Patriots.
What to Expect From Here on Out
From Week 5 to Week 16, the Steelers were projected to be favored in eight of 10 games, with only their Week 16 game in New Orleans being a spot where they were listed as an underdog (+1).
The Eagles were projected to be favored in six of 10 games from Weeks 5 to 16, with Week 11 in New Orleans (+2) and Week 15 in Los Angeles against the Rams (+1) their two games in which they were projected to be listed as underdogs over that stretch.
Entering the regular season, the Eagles and Steelers both had almost a 75% chance to make the playoffs, according to the implied probability odds. Now, four games into the season, the Eagles are down to a 53% chance to reach them, while the Steelers are down to just 30% to clinch a berth.
The question remains, it is time to back the “Pennsylvania Powers” from the AFC and NFC?