Stuckey’s Week 14 NFL Betting Picks: Spreads & Over/Unders
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
- A Redskins-Packers spread pick. A Chiefs-Patriots side. A 49ers-Saints over/under play.
- Stuckey reveals his favorite Week 14 NFL bets, featuring spread and over/under picks for three games.
Stuckey highlights his favorite NFL picks for Week 14 below.
Let’s run through how he’s betting Redskins-Packers, Chiefs-Patriots and 49ers-Saints.
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Redskins +13.5 at Packers
In what should be a lower-scoring game — Washington is dead last in seconds per play in neutral situations while Green Bay also doesn’t play fast — catching 13.5 with a team that should be able to run the ball against a team that’s a little overvalued in the market is too good to pass up.
Anything over 10.5 is worth a stab in my opinion.
Patriots -3 vs. Chiefs
A 23-3 record against the spread.
Think about that for a minute. That’s almost a 90% clip.
That’s Tom Brady’s ATS record after a straight-up loss as either an underdog (9-0) or favorite of fewer than seven points (14-3) since 2003, the entirety of our Bet Labs database. That’s higher than a 75% return on investment, and maybe most amazingly of all: He’s covered against the closing number by an average margin of more than eight points per game over that span.
I’m not a huge trend player, but this is a spot that Bill Belichick and Brady consistently cover in, especially at Gillette, where they’re dominant ATS:
- When Brady and Edelman both play, the Patriots are 43-0 at home against AFC opponents
- The Patriots are 99-1 at home when they have a halftime lead with Brady starting (interestingly enough, the one loss came against the Chiefs a couple years ago to open the season when Alex Smith was under center)
I’ve successfully faded the Patriots over the past few weeks, primarily because of their offense, which remains broken. And while I do expect it to get better as the season progresses, it’s still a work in progress with all the moving parts they’ve had to deal with along the line and especially at receiver and tight end.
That said, I do think the Patriots offense can have success running the ball against a Chiefs defense that remains one of the NFL’s worst against the run. Brady should also have success throwing to his backs (expect a big game from James White game) and tight ends — two positions the Chiefs struggle to defend. And while Kansas City’s secondary has performed surprisingly well, especially against limiting deep passes, that’s not a part of the New England offense right now.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are not the well-oiled offensive machine we saw in 2018.
They’re still very good, but I’m not sure Patriots Mahomes is 100%, and more importantly, they’re really struggling to run the ball due to a lack of push up front. That means their production falls mainly on the shoulders of Mahomes and his weapons in the passing game. Of course that’s not the worst situation against most teams, but it plays right into the Patriots’ strength: Their secondary.
Belichick and Co. made key adjustments for the second meeting between these teams last season, putting the speedy J.C. Jackson on Tyreek Hill with safety help over top to take away the deep threat of Hill, helping them win the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead. (Hill shredded the Patriots for three touchdowns in the regular-season meeting.) The Patriots can then utilize Stephon Gilmore on Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins when necessary.
Now, the one wild card is the added speed of Mecole Hardman. But with the Chiefs’ run game struggling, the Patriots should come up with a good enough scheme with their excellent secondary to slow down Mahomes enough to pull this game out.
I’m trusting the situational spot and key matchups here. The Patriots just always find a way to win.
49ers-Saints Under 44.5
This game has massive NFC playoff implications, so these teams should play a little closer to the vest. I also think the matchups will dictate a heavy rushing attack from both.
The Saints’ offensive line is a huge asset, but they’re just not healthy up front on the left side, which spells trouble against Nick Bosa and a 49ers defensive front that can generate pressure without blitzing as well as any team. That’s partly why their secondary has performed so well — not only do they have talent and communicate extremely well, they can all sit in coverage while the defensive line generates pressure.
Robert Saleh, who comes from the Pete Carroll tree, has morphed this defense into its own identity with many more unique and disguised looks than just a Cover 3 shell. They’re running a lot more Cover 4 and just don’t allow anything deep … at all. San Fran has allowed only 19 passes of 20 or more yards on the season, the fewest in the NFL.
Don’t expect this very slow-moving Saints offense to get much down the field.
New Orleans is very efficient on offense, but I don’t expect anything explosive against this San Fran defense. And as a result of the mismatches up front, Sean Payton may have to go with heavier sets and attack San Fran with a heavier run script. That should keep the clock moving for an offense that doesn’t play fast (25th in pace in neutral situations).
On the other side of the ball, the Saints secondary can match up with the 49ers receivers on the outside. New Orleans can also generate pressure to fluster Jimmy Garoppolo and is good enough against the run (sixth in rush defense DVOA) to slow San Fran down on the ground.
In a matchup that favors both defenses, expect heavy rushing attacks and lots of short, quick passes from two quarterbacks who get rid of the ball quickly.
This line looks about right given some of the injury news.
We do talk a lot about the good fortune of the Seahawks this season, but the Saints have had some similar luck (albeit with a backup QB for a good portion of the season). They’ve recovered 68.42% of fumbles, highest in NFL, and you can’t expect that to continue forever.
The San Fran defense can shut down this New Orleans offense and do enough on offense to stay in this game to the very end. The 49ers are the best teaser piece on the board. Call it 20-17 someone.
In a matchup of top-10 defenses that can generate a lot of pressure and match up on the outside, the under is the play here. I’ll be playing the game under (anything over 43) and sprinkling some on the first-half under as well (anything over 21.5).
Stuckey is 296-234-7 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.