Stuckey’s Favorite Week 15 NFL Betting Picks: Spreads & Over/Unders
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30).
- Dolphins at Giants. Buccaneers at Lions. Rams at Cowboys.
- Stuckey reveals how he's betting all three of those Week 15 NFL spreads below.
Stuckey highlights his favorite NFL picks for Week 15 below.
Let’s run through how he’s betting Dolphins-Giants, Buccaneers-Lions and Rams-Cowboys.
Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Giants -3.5 vs. Dolphins
I just don’t think this Dolphins roster is anywhere close to as talented as the Giants, and think this line should be closer to 6.
The Dolphins own the league’s worst defense — a unit that can’t generate pressure and is completely decimated on the back-end. I expect a Giants team that should get healthier on offense with the return of Golden Tate (and potentially Engram) to move the ball with relative ease against a Dolphins defense that’s allowing 6.2 yards per play.
It looks like Eli Manning will get the nod under center, and he looked serviceable enough in his first start back. I trust him here against a much easier defense that should also allow the Giants to get going on the ground. Plus, he likely won’t be as charitable with the ball as Daniel Jones has been.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants defensive line should dominate the line of scrimmage against an inferior Miami offensive line. The Dolphins’ offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards in addition to most advanced metrics. New York’s defense excels at stopping the run which it will have no issue doing against Miami’s historically bad rushing attack that’s averaging a league-low 3.3 yards per carry.
Now, the Giants secondary has played pretty poorly this year and I have to give credit to Ryan Fitzpatrick for his production on such a bad team. However, he has no running game to speak of and a banged up receiving corps that may now be without its top wideout DeVante Parker, who is currently in concussion protocol. I think this secondary can do just enough in tangent with the defensive line production to get the necessary stops.
Before I hit either, I will wait to see if the market drives the Giants down to 3 at some point but do like both at their current levels. I also think throwing the Giants into a ML parlay with say the Patriots isn’t a bad option.
The Dolphins will fight but the Giants should win this game by 6+ more times than not.
Lions +3.5 vs. Buccaneers
This comes down to a numbers play for me. I have this Bucs team as about a field goal better than this Lions team on a neutral field, so this line should be right around a pick. That means I would gladly take +3 with the home dog Lions and especially +3.5.
Neither team will likely have much success running the ball, so it will come down to which team can move the ball more efficiently through the air. Well, each team lost a key cog of their respective passing attacks last week as Detroit won’t have the services of Marvin Jones and Tampa lost Mike Evans. For Tampa, that leaves pretty much just Chris Godwin while Detroit at least has a viable slot option in Danny Amendola to pair with Kenny Golladay on the outside.
I’d actually give the edge to the Lions here as Detroit has a more talented secondary with Darius Slay on the outside and Justin Coleman in the slot in addition to the emerging rookie Amani Oruwariye. Plus, this unit really only has to worry about one major threat in Godwin. The loss of Evans crushes the Tampa offense, which has arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league when Evans and Chris Godwin are on the field at the same time.
Tampa obviously has the better overall quarterback, but Jameis Winston is dealing with a fractured right thumb in his throwing hand. For someone that is already prone to turnovers, this could turn into a disaster in the dome.
David Blough was pretty horrid in his last start at Minnesota but that was his first career road start in a hostile environment against a solid defense. He showed me enough in his first start in Detroit on Thanksgiving against the Bears to trust him back at home.
After three straight wins, the Bucs are overvalued in the market right now relative to a Lions team that hasn’t won a game since October. But Detroit has played a relatively tough schedule over that span and has been in almost every single game this year; all 11 of their games against teams other than the Vikings have been decided by one possession.
Plus, I’m getting to fade Winston as a favorite, which is always the preference when betting on a game involving the former Florida State product. He can beat anybody just as easily as he can lose to anybody. Winston is just 6-13-1 ATS as a favorite in his career, failing to cover by an average margin of about a field goal per game. (Only Philip Rivers is less profitable as a favorite among active starting QBs).
Hold your nose and side with the value home dog.
Cowboys +1.5 vs. Rams
Now, while I think the Rams have the edge in a lot of the little things — which I covered in depth in our game guide — I have to play the Cowboys here.
First, I know that, in a way, this game (somehow) means nothing to the Cowboys — they can beat the Eagles then the Redskins over the next two weeks to win the division. But on the flip side, this game is almost essential to the playoff chances for the Rams, who are fighting for the last wild-card spot in the deep NFC.
But at the end of the day, I play numbers, not teams.
When this line opened around Cowboys -3, it looked reasonable to me since I have these teams rated very similarly. Even when it ticked down a bit, I had no interest in Dallas for fear of the reasons I outlined above. However, I cannot pass up +1.5, which is where this line currently sits after everyone and their brother, sister and cousin has decided to play the Rams — that’s just too much value on the home team (with extra prep following a Thursday game) in a fairly even matchup, per my numbers.
This game also fits one of my primary principles — buy low, sell high — when betting the NFL, which sees more overreactions on a week-to-week basis than any other sport.
Last week, everybody wanted to back the Cowboys on the road in Chicago and fade the Rams at home against Seattle. Well, after passing on Dallas last week and betting the Rams, the tides have shifted too much with this number.
I’ll be out on an island by myself late Sunday afternoon with a Cowboys ticket, hoping Jason Garrett doesn’t do something like punt on fourth-and-1 from the Rams’ 30-yard line. And hey, at least Brett Maher is no longer kicking in Big D!