For NFL Week 16, I'm on my two favorite sides for Raiders vs Texans and Patriots vs Ravens.
I am rolling with two exciting games with playoff implications this Sunday. You can find those NFL predictions and analysis for each game below.
Let's get into my NFL Week 16 picks and predictions for Sunday, December 21.
NFL Week 16 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Raiders vs. Texans
I'm not going to waste your time trying to sell you on any matchup advantages for Las Vegas. This is purely a buy-low/sell-high spot play on a game I project under two touchdowns.
I believe we have reached the market's peak for the Texans, who have won six straight overall. As a result, we have started to see chatter pick up about Houston as a legit AFC sleeper and Super Bowl contender.
Regardless of whether or not you believe that to be true, it's usually a sign that a team may be priced at its top. Keep in mind the Texans have also benefited from some opponent injuries during their current winning streak.
- The Colts lost Daniel Jones
- The Bills had significant offensive line injuries, as did the Chiefs
- Half of the Cardinals' team didn't play
Four of those six wins came by a single possession, with only one coming against a team likely to make the postseason. While Houston's offense is certainly trending up, they still aren't a team I'm terribly afraid to fade as a large favorite, partly due to their struggles in finishing off drives with touchdowns (30th in red zone TD %).
Additionally, Houston could potentially be without some key pieces on both sides of the ball with injuries at running back and on defense, with both Derek Stingley and Azeez Al-Shaair listed as questionable. It would've been nice if Vegas got left tackle Kolton Miller back from injury, but he will not return this week.
While I think we have reached the summit on Houston's market value, this is also a prime opportunity to buy low on a Raiders team in a historically profitable spot.
Last week, Vegas got shut out 31-0 in Philadelphia and only mustered 75 total yards. Who wants to bet on a team following that performance? Not many, I'd imagine, which sometimes can create a bit of value the following week.
For what it's worth, teams off a shutout loss have gone 74-55-5 (57.4%) ATS since 2003, including 32-18-2 (64%) on the road, covering by over a field goal per game.
Road underdogs following a shutout loss have gone 26-14-2 ATS (65%) with an average cover margin north of 3.5 points.
Yes, the Raiders are an awful football team, but they are still a group of professional football players. I'd expect a fully focused effort after getting embarrassed by the Eagles last week.
That has mostly been the case for Vegas after a blowout loss this season. They have lost by 17 or more five times this season. Here are their results in the following game:
- Lost by 1 to the Bears
- Beat the Titans by 10
- Lost by 1 to the Jags
- Lost by 14 to the Browns
- Lost to the Broncos by 7
That's 4-1 ATS, and they arguably should have beaten a pair of likely playoff teams in Chicago and Jacksonville.
Lastly, this game fits one of my favorite all-time NFL trends, which just highlights a juicy buy-low opportunity:
- DD dog after failing to cover as DD dog: 50-25-1 ATS 66.7% covering by 3.5 ppg
Think about it. Who wants to back a very bad team (which you need to be to catch double digits in back-to-back weeks) against a good team after said bad team just got blown out by another good team in the prior week? Maybe just me.
Hopefully, Pete Carroll will kick the field goal down 17 in the final seconds if needed.
Patriots vs. Ravens
I'm riding with Baltimore on Sunday night in a pivotal game for the Ravens' playoff chances.
If the Ravens can pull this one out (and Pittsburgh suffers a loss at Detroit earlier in the day), next week's game at Green Bay would become completely meaningless for the Ravens, who could opt to rest Lamar Jackson and others if they so choose.
In that scenario, the division would come down to their Week 18 divisional showdown in Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, this game doesn't mean as much to New England, which can lock up the division by simply beating the Jets and Dolphins (with potentially Brady Cook and Quinn Ewers) over the final two weeks.
Does that mean the Patriots won't try here? Absolutely not. However, Mike Vrabel and company could take a more cautious approach when it comes to injuries as a result.
Speaking of which, the Patriots have had one of the healthiest rosters in the league up until recently.
That's no longer the case with left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams still on IR, which really hurts in the trenches. And now, they have additional injuries throughout the back end of their defense.
Starting linebacker Robert Spillane, who leads the team in tackles and directs the show, will miss Sunday night's game. That's a massive loss for New England's run defense, which has already cratered since losing Willliams and may also be without starting defensive lineman Christian Barmore (questionable) and starting outside linebacker Harold Landry (questionable).
Since Week 8, the Pats' defense ranks 30th in both Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA. That could spell doom against a Ravens rushing attack that is firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Over that same time period (since Week 8, when the Ravens came out of the bye healthier), Baltimore ranks 2nd in Rush EPA after ranking 22nd over the first seven weeks.
Plus, Lamar continues to improve incrementally from a health standpoint each game, and I finally saw some very encouraging signs in last week's shutout victory over Cincinnati.
There will be ample opportunities for Jackson to attack the middle of the field and exploit the Patriots' linebackers, who really struggle in coverage.
The Patriots pass defense already had flaws (26th DVOA), and now they might have to make do without a pair of starting cornerbacks in Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis, who are both listed as questionable.
The Ravens still have issues scoring in the red zone this season (second-lowest red zone TD%), which has contributed to their overall decline in offensive efficiency. However, the Patriots defense could be the perfect medicine to get back on track, as the Patriots rank dead last in red zone TD% allowed.
I project this game over a field goal, so I'm okay with a cheap 3 or a more expensive 2.5 if that pops up at some point.
I do still think the Patriots are a bit overvalued in the market after playing the league's easiest schedule to date, with seven wins against either rookie quarterbacks or ones that have been benched.
Additionally, New England has had lady luck on its side in several high-variance categories, including fumbles and fourth-downs.
- On the season, New England has converted 14 of 19 fourth downs, while its opponents have gone just 8-23
- Patriots have lost only 7 of 17 fumbles, while recovering 66.67% of their opponent's fumbles.
Don't be surprised if Baltimore gets a few bounces at the Bank.
New England's offense won't make this easy. QB Drake Maye is playing at an incredibly high level, especially when you consider some of the protection issues he's had to deal with in addition to a ground game that ranks 29th in Success Rate.
Maye has the poise of a crafty veteran and throws one of, if not the best, deep ball in the league at the moment. He's going to be a problem for years to come in the AFC.
With that said, he has gotten away with some throws this season (against some terrible defenses) and now has to deal with a much worse tackle on his blindside.
Through 15 weeks, Maye has a 23-7 TD-INT ratio despite a 23-14 BTT-TWP ratio. He should have a few more picks.
Don't expect New England to get anything going on the ground against a Baltimore defense that ranks first in Rush EPA since Week 6. With better health has come better results for Zach Orr's defense, which ranks 5th overall in both EPA and Success Rate over that stretch.
Kyle Hamilton did pop up on the injury report after getting banged up in practice on Friday. That's certainly worth monitoring, as he's their best and most versatile overall defensive player. You may think of him as a safety, but he's now more of a hybrid linebacker.
Since Week 5, he's only played traditional safety on about 3% of snaps. Instead, he's splitting time between slot, linebacker, and even just right at the line of scrimmage on a quarter of snaps.
Chidobe Awuzie has played at a very high level at corner for Baltimore this season and is listed as doubtful. That's not an insignificant loss, especially if Hamilton isn't at 100% or can't go — although I do expect him to play along with Ronnie Stanley and John Jenkins.
Overall, I do think the Ravens are in a better health spot than the Patriots.
Lastly, this is usually when Lamar Jackson shines. In his career, he's 18-8 ATS in December and has never lost a game between Weeks 15-18.
