Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 16.
NFL Interception Props for Week 16
- Josh Allen to Throw an Interception (+125; bet365)
- Aaron Rodgers to Throw an Interception (+110; bet365)
Josh Allen to Throw an Interception (+125)
Bills QB Josh Allen might be coming off the best win of the season following a remarkable comeback against the Patriots.
This week against the Browns, though, I think Allen and the Bills may have some turnover issues.
Outside of last year’s MVP run, Allen has been an interception moneymaker for me throughout his career. He has 10 this year and has had 10 or more in seven of nine seasons.
Going to Cleveland, this isn’t a great matchup for him to throw all over this defense, as the Browns rank top-five in pressure rate and blitz rate. Allen’s turnover-worthy-play rates both go up against pressure and blitz, with seven of his 10 picks coming when seeing pressure.
The Browns defense hasn’t forced a ton of interceptions this season. However, because of their ability to get pressure and being stronger against the run, I expect Allen’s pass attempts to pick up in this one.
Even with potential wind, I had expected odds closer to a coin flip, so if I can get +125 in this spot, I’ll take the value every time for a QB to throw a pick in a difficult defensive road matchup.
Aaron Rodgers to Throw an Interception (+110)
The Lions defense has had some ups and downs this year, but I think in Week 16, they could rebound with some turnovers vs the Steelers.
QB Aaron Rodgers only has seven interceptions this season, although this is a great spot to grab his interception prop on the road vs the Lions at +120.
The Lions have been one of the best teams this year at causing turnovers, and part of that is their relentless defensive pressure.
Detroit is top-10 in both pressure rate per dropback and blitzes at an above-average rate, which means they can get to Rodgers and force him into potentially bad throws.
Looking at Rodgers’ turnover-worthy plays in 2025, nearly 50% of them come when he’s being pressured. Nevertheless, because of some positive luck on his side, his 12 TWPs have only yielded seven interceptions, and I think that luck turns in this matchup.
Of Rodgers’ seven interceptions this season, five have come in road games, and he’s now going to Detroit as a seven-point 'dog.
The Steelers have been able to rely on their run game the last couple of times on the field, but with the Lions being much stronger at defending the run and their ability to score quickly, I expect Rodgers' pass attempts to trend upward, making an interception more likely.
