I went 2-1 on props in NFL Week 15 and am now 32-14 for the season, so let's keep rolling! I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 16.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 16, including picks for Buccaneers vs Panthers, Jets vs Saints, Chiefs vs Titans, and Steelers vs Lions.
NFL Player Props — Week 16
- Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175, FanDuel)
- Tyler Shough Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Chimere Dike Over 3.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365, +118 at DraftKings)
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (+105 at BetMGM, +104 at DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs Panthers Player Props: Mike Evans TD Prop
This line is wild to me. Evans has scored at least one touchdown in 21-of-39 games (including playoffs) with Baker Mayfield as his QB.
Evans came back from injury with a vengeance last week, posting a 6-catch, 132-yard performance on 12 targets.
The Panthers have been a bit stingy against the WR position, but most of that is against the slot where they've allowed just 3 TDs all year to slot-aligned players, but 10 to players lined up out wide. Evans isn't going to drift into the slot all that much, especially with Chris Godwin healthy, so there shouldn't be a strong downgrade on the matchup here.
I'd play this down to +135.
Pick: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175, FanDuel)
Jets vs Saints Player Props: Tyler Shough Rushing Yards
I lost on Shough under 22.5 last week; this time, I'm switching it up and going to the over well.
If he can put up 28 yards on a Panthers defense that's stingy against QB scrambles, then we should love him here against the Jets, who allow a top-three QB adjusted scramble rate.
Shough is averaging 22.5 rushing yards per 100% of game snaps, which I'd only make higher in this particular matchup.
The Jets have allowed 21 scramble yards per game, despite facing Mall Santas like Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa (x2). Outside of those five games, the Jets have allowed 30.6 scramble yards per game..
Picks: Tyler Shough Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Chiefs vs Titans Player Props: Chimere Dike Receptions
Dike gets a great matchup here — the Titans' slot WR should face plenty of Chiefs nickelback Chamarri Conner, who allows a team-worst 84.3% catch rate and has allowed at least three receptions in eight of 14 games.
Dike doesn't see an appreciable drop in target rate against two-high safety looks, which the Chiefs use at the fourth-highest rate, but he does see a nice spike in targets against man coverage, of which the Chiefs also use at a top-10 rate, including a top-eight rate in the second half of the season, and the most in the NFL over the last two weeks without CB Trent McDuffie.
Dike also gets targeted on a higher percentage of routes against the blitz, which Kansas City uses at a top-five rate.
And when the Chiefs are lying back in two-high zone coverage, Dike will get plenty of short looks over the middle with a high completion rate, with Kansas City allowing the sixth-highest completion percentage and third-lowest average depth of target.
I'd much prefer the volume angle than the yards, given the Chiefs' two-high shell. If Dike is going to clear his 28.5 line, he'll likely need four receptions, so I'd rather take some nice plus money on it than lay -110 to clear the yardage..
Pick: Chimere Dike Over 3.5 Receptions (+130 at B365, +118 at DK)
Steelers vs Lions Player Props: Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Attempts
In six games with Dan Campbell calling the plays for Detroit, Gibbs has had a median of 14 carries per game, clearing this line just once. However, in those six games the Lions have run more than double the amount of plays trailing in the second half than with the lead.
As 7-point favorites, that heavily favors a better game script for Gibbs to rack up more rushing attempts. When leading, the Lions run 36% more than when they trail, which represents the largest discrepancy in the NFL for teams with at least 50 plays in both scenarios.
The Steelers are also slightly worse against the run than the pass, so ideally, you'd want to attack them on the ground when possible.
The other sneaky angle here is that in those six games where Gibbs had a median of 14 carries, they came against teams that allow around league-average total plays allowed. The Steelers rank No. 1 in the NFL in total plays faced, meaning there should be more overall play volume, which can only benefit Gibbs clearing this line.
I like taking this at any plus odds.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (+105 at BetMGM, +104 at DraftKings)
Dr Nick's Week 16 Prop Bets
- Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175, FanDuel)
- Tyler Shough Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Chimere Dike Over 3.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365, +118 at DraftKings)
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (+105 at BetMGM, +104 at DraftKings)
