Stuckey’s Week 6 NFL Teaser Betting Guide: Ranking the Best Options for Sunday
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel.
- Week 6 of the NFL season offers a few different viable teaser betting options.
- Stuckey reviews his teaser rules of thumbs and shares his favorite teaser he bet this week.
It’s time for our weekly NFL teaser talk.
Each week, I look at the NFL betting board and identify which teams fit my teaser criteria. From there, I select which ones I like for potential teasers based on matchups and other factors (for example, as explained in this article, teasers have more value in games with lower totals).
As a reminder, I have five rules of thumb to keep in mind before ever betting an NFL teaser, which should really be the only sport you consider teasers as serious investments.
- Cross At Least Two Key Numbers
- Don’t Ever Cross Zero
- Don’t Tease Totals
- Price Matters
- Know Your Book
Everything I’m saying applies only to two-team teasers. If you’re a recreational bettor just looking for entertainment value and want to throw in a sweetheart teaser to liven up your Sunday for a few dollars, I’m not here to judge.
Crossing two key numbers is the bare minimum. I personally almost exclusively bet a teaser if both sides cross at least three key numbers (3, 4 and 6, for example). And ideally, I’m crossing both the 3 and 7 to cross four key numbers, which gives me an edge over books in a vacuum.
Revisiting the Math
In order to break even on a six-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4% chance of covering after being teased. If we look back in our Bet Labs database, all NFL regular-season spreads since 2003 covered only 69% of the time if teased six points. Nice, but not nice enough.
The story changes if we filter for all teases that would’ve captured both the 3 and 7.
NFL regular-season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 and favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have covered 74.9% of the time, which clears the aforementioned 72.4% hurdle rate.
But some books have smartened up and are no longer offering six-point NFL teasers at -110 (they used to be offered at even money). So, if you can only bet a six-point teaser with -120 odds, do you still have an edge teasing through the 3 and 7 on both sides of an NFL teaser?
Assuming the past is a fair indicator of future results, the answer is yes.
In order to break even on a two-team, six-point teaser at -120 odds, you need to clear a hurdle rate of 73.9%. And as I showed above, we’re at 74.9% dating back to 2003.
It’s not the greatest edge, but it is even larger if you go back further in time — although then you run into potential non-stationary issues since the game has changed so much.
And remember, you can increase that edge by including other factors I mentioned before.
Regardless, try to find a book with the best possible odds for your six-point teasers; -120 is the maximum you should ever consider. For example, if you only had the option of betting a two-team teaser at -130 odds, it wouldn’t make sense, as the hurdle rate with those odds is 75.2%.
Now, let’s take a look at the best teaser options for Week 6.
My Week 6 Top Teaser Options
In my opinion, there are better teaser options this week than last — although all five options did come through last week.
Here’s my top-six teaser options for this week based on currently available lines:
- Bucs +2.5 to +8.5
- Titans +2.5 to +8.5
- Eagles +3 to +9
- Cowboys -7 to -1
- Cardinals +2.5 to +8.5
- Saints +2.5 to +8.5
Teaser Options YTD: 23-6 (79.3%)
As I say every week, if you can’t tease through 3 and 7, the next best option is teasing a 3-point underdog up or a 7-point favorite down. That makes both the Eagles and Cowboys possibilities this week.
That said, Philly’s dire situation at corner does scare me a bit on the road against Minnesota’s dynamic duo at receiver. Although the Eagles do have enough talent along the defensive line to cause copious amounts of havoc against Minnesota’s weak offensive line. It should be an interesting chess match from a scheme perspective.
After an embarrassing home loss against the Packers, you’d think the Cowboys could pull out a straight up win in New York against the winless Jets.
However, the Jets do get some pieces back on Sunday, most importantly the enormous upgrade from Luke Falk to Sam Darnold at quarterback — which says more about Falk’s futility than anything else.
Plus, Dallas could be without both starting offensive tackles, which could really cripple its offense on the road. This could end up being trickier than many think, which is why I played the Jets at +7.5.
In regards to the Cardinals, they’re only on this list because they fit the ideal criteria, as you can tease them up from +2.5 through 3, 4, 6 and 7 to +8.5. But I really just want no part of that game, it should be higher scoring with an over/under currently sitting at 51.5. That makes the potential tease piece a little less valuable.
The same can be said for the Saints after moving from +1 to +2.5. However, I played the Jaguars at -1 earlier in the week, so New Orleans doesn’t get any teaser consideration from me.
Since I use consensus lines at the time of writing, I didn’t include the Browns, who have moved to a +1 home underdog. However, if that line ticks back up to +1.5, they would be my third-favorite teaser piece for Week 6. Especially after the recent announcement that the Seahawks will likely be without three starting offensive linemen.
My Favorite Week 6 Teaser
Bucs +8.5/Titans +8.5
Two ideal tease pieces here.
I think it’s a good time to buy the Bucs as we may have reached the end of the Kyle Allen value road. However, since the Bucs have had an absolutely brutal travel schedule of late, I feel much more comfortable teasing them up from under a field goal to over a touchdown.
Despite this technically being a “home game,” it will mark the third straight week Tampa is on the road. It’s gone from Los Angeles to New Orleans to now London. That’s vicious. The next two road games for the Bucs are also on the road (Tennessee, Seattle) but at least they get a much needed bye next week.
The Titans are the best teaser piece on the board in my opinion. You’re not only teasing a +2.5 to +8.5 but you’re also doing so in a game with a low total where points should come at a premium. It’s pretty much that simple.
For a game between two evenly matched teams that I essentially make a coin flip, getting +8.5 is extremely valuable in a game with a total of 41. You just have to hope new Titans kicker Cody Parkey doesn’t go 0-for-4 on field goal attempts as the man he replaced did last week in Tennessee.