Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.
- There are 36 potential Super Bowl 53 matchups, but many of them do not offer betting value per The Action Network's NFL simulations.
- Several matchups involving the Texans and Seahawks have value, including Saints-Texans.
- Several sportsbooks are offering lines for these so be sure to shop for the best odds available.
With the NFL playoffs kicking off Saturday, there are 12 teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy. I’m no mathematician, but I believe there are 36 possible Super Bowl 53 matchups that can occur.
Some are about as likely as me winning Super Bowl MVP, but they are all technically possible.
Several sportsbooks have odds posted for every one of these matchups. Luckily, our Bet Labs simulations pop out the implied odds for each possible combination, which we can use to compare to market odds to find value.
The majority of the value comes from Texans and Seahawks matchups. Clearly, our simulations like those teams more than the oddsmakers do, especially in Houston’s case.
The only matchups that have value at all three books I used are Saints-Texans and Seahawks-Texans. We project the former will occur 4.5% of the time, while the latter takes place just 0.6% of the time.
They’re not exactly bets that you can count on hitting, but that’s why the payouts are huge.
The only spots that have value that do not include either the Texans or Seahawks both involve the Rams — Chiefs-Rams and Ravens-Rams.
I reckon Chiefs-Rams is a matchup plenty of folks can get behind given its likelihood. It’s probably not as likely as many people think — occurring just 11.1% of the time per our simulations — but implied probability has it happening just 10.7% of the time.
Some other matchups that don’t quite have value but are pretty darn close are Pats-Rams, Chiefs-Bears and Pats-Bears.