Super Bowl DFS Breakdown, Lineups, Expert Predictions for 49ers vs Chiefs
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.
Super Bowl DFS Breakdown, Lineups, Expert Predictions for 49ers vs Chiefs
Super Bowl 58 between the 49ers and the Chiefs has arrived, and DFS expert Chris Raybon is here with his Super Bowl DFS breakdown. Read on for all of his thoughts on lineups and strategy ahead of the big game on Sunday.
Position by Position Breakdown
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($10,600 DK, $15,000 FD)
With Mecole Hardman being relegated to one snap last week, the trimming of the fat for the Chiefs' passing offense is now complete. Mahomes is averaging 7.0 yards per attempt with a 4.4% TD rate and a 2.0% interception rate, but when not targeting receivers named Hardman, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore or Justyn Ross, Mahomes shoots up to 7.5 yards per attempt with a 4.8% TD rate and a 1.2% interception rate.
While his counting stats in the AFC title game (241 yards, 1 TD) were not eye-popping, he was impressive in completing 30-of-39 passes (76.9%) and converting 8-of-18 (44.4%) third downs against the NFL’s best pass defense. He enters Super Bowl 58 having never failed to pass for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back postseason games and will face a 49ers pass defense that is good, but is a tier down from Baltimore’s, and has given up fantasy games of 20-plus to the usual suspects (Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kick Cousins).
It’s also worth noting that the 49ers have struggled against mobile quarterbacks (Josh Dobbs also put up 20-plus fantasy points against them), and Mahomes becomes a more willing scrambler in the postseason, resulting in his postseason rushing production increasing by 6.7 yards and 0.16 touchdowns per game relative to the regular season. Mahomes is a top play in all formats. If fading him in GPP lineups, Isaiah Pacheco is a must.
Brock Purdy ($10,000 DK, $14,500 FD)
The fact that the Chiefs have allowed zero 300-yard passing games and only one three-touchdown passing game along with the presence of McCaffrey gives Purdy a lower floor than is typical for players in his price range. His blowup potential likely rests with a trailing game script, and in large-field GPPs you could potentially gain a lot of leverage by playing Purdy and fading McCaffrey.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($12,000 DK, $17,500 FD)
McCaffrey has posted 20-plus DraftKings points in 14-of-18 games and 20-plus FanDuel points in 12-of-18. He’s a cash-game lock. If you fade him in tournaments, make sure you roster some combination of Purdy stacks (betting on TD variance or explosive-play variance going against McCaffrey), 49ers DST (betting on defensive or special-teams TDs removing offensive drives where McCaffrey can score), and/or Elijah Mitchell (betting on a McCaffrey in-game injury).
Isiah Pacheco ($8,000 DK, $12,500 FD)
Pacheco and fellow teammate Rashee Rice are the sweet spot for high-floor, high-ceiling value on DraftKings. I have Pacheco projected to score in the Purdy/Samuel range against a 49ers run defense that coughed up 314 yards and three scores on the ground across two postseason games. I don’t mind using him in a variety of tournament builds, but he’d provide the most leverage in lineups that fade Mahomes.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($1,200 DK, $6,500 FD)
Edwards-Helaire has assumed the role of Jerick McKinnon Lite, averaging 8.7 routes and 3.3 carries per game (though the bulk of those carries came in garbage time of the Wild Card Round). CEH has some unrealized upside in the event that Pacheco gets hurt or needs a breather in the red zone, and he could see extended action if Kansas City goes down big.
Elijah Mitchell ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD)
Mitchell vultured a touchdown after McCaffrey was hurt on a long carry that set the 49ers up with first-and-goal. Backup RBs can provide a massive edge on a one-game slate if the starter goes down, but unlike Edwards-Helaire, Mitchell is priced up seemingly in anticipation of that exact possibility. From a median projection standpoint, he projects for one carry and is one of the most overvalued players on the slate.
Kyle Juszczyk ($800 DK, $5,500 FD)
Juszczyk is a great value from a projected snaps-per-dollar perspective, but the fact he drew three targets and got a rare carry last week likely lowers his odds of popping this week, as Shanahan is too deliberate and tendency-aware for that. In four multi-game postseason stints under Shanahan, Juszczyk is yet to be targeted in back-to-back games, and he followed up his four previous 20-plus-scrimmage yard games this season with single-digit efforts in the subsequent contest.
Wide Receiver
Rashee Rice ($7,600 DK, $11,000 FD)
Fun fact: Rashee Rice has no relation to the opposition’s Hall of Fame legend Jerry Rice, but in terms of receiving production across their first three postseason games, Rashee (20/223/1) has Jerry beat by 10 receptions, 102 yards and a touchdown. I have Rice projected to score the fourth-most points on this slate, behind only McCaffrey, Mahomes and Kelce, yet he is priced eighth-highest on DraftKings. Though Steve Wilks did make the adjustment of playing more man coverage in the second half of the NFC title game against the Lions, the 49ers are typically a zone-heavy team, and Rice's 2.9 yards per route run against zone coverage ranked fifth among 93 qualified wide receivers during the regular season. Due to Rice’s low average depth of target and high target share, he is playable in tournament lineups even without Mahomes.
Deebo Samuel ($9,200 DK, $11,500 FD)
For a guy who has recorded 83 or more scrimmage yards in seven of his 10 healthy postseason games, Samuel probably has a wider range of outcomes (and lower floor) than most realize. He was held to 46 or fewer receiving yards in seven of those 10 contests, salvaging four others with rushing lines of 2/43/0, 10/39/0, 3/53/0 and 10/72/1. He has topped out at five carries for 38 yards this season and could be left on the outside looking in if he doesn’t have a big receiving game.With that said, nearly half of his touchdowns (5-of-12) have come on the ground, so he makes for a nice contrarian GPP play left unstacked from Purdy.
Brandon Aiyuk ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD)
Aiyuk has a tough matchup on paper against an elite Kansas City cornerback group that is capable of locking up in man coverage, but that also means Aiyuk will likely see lots of single coverage on the outside while McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle demand resources over the middle. While Steve Spagnuolo is liable to throw curveballs from a scheming perspective, an above-average rate of man coverage has been a staple all season for him, and Aiyuk’s 3.8 yards per route run against man ranked fifth-best among 93 qualified wide receivers during the regular season. Aiyuk is not as sexy as McCaffrey or Samuel and not as cheap as Kittle, so it’s possible he carries the lowest ownership percentage among San Francisco’s top-four skill players, making him the team’s ideal GPP play and stacking partner with Purdy.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
Having earned back the trust of Mahomes, MVS was deployed on a season-high 96% of team pass routes last week. That gives him the upside to best his season-high receiving yardage mark of 84. Only 32% of his targets have come with the Chiefs ahead, so he is best in lineups that feature Mahomes and fade Pacheco.
Justin Watson ($2,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
Watson typically runs a route on 40-60% of the dropbacks as Kansas City’s WR3, but unlike most WR3s, most of his targets come downfield instead of underneath in the slot. He is a nice lower-cost/fade-recency-bias pivot play off of MVS, as the two project similarly despite MVS’s increased snap rate. Watson does have an 11-target game to his name back on Nov. 20 against the Eagles.
Jauan Jennings ($3,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
Jennings will be the fifth read in Purdy’s progression on nearly every play unless Kittle or McCaffrey stays in to block. Thanks to his run-blocking prowess, he is a lot more valuable in real football than he is in fantasy/DFS. I have his anytime TD probability projected at 9% and wouldn’t go much higher than that in terms of exposure.
Richie James Jr. ($400 DK, $5,500 FD)
He is averaging a 20% route participation rate this postseason and played 17 snaps and ran eight routes (17%) last week as the clear No. 4 wide receiver. In last year’s Super Bowl, Reid schemed up a 5-yard TD to Toney and a 4-yard TD to Moore (his first of the year and only Super Bowl catch). That could be James this year. He also figures to get a few extra cracks at a touchdown as the team’s main return man, making him stackable with the Chiefs DST on DraftKings.
Mecole Hardman Jr. ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD)
Hardman Jr.’s snaps went from 27 to 19 to 1 over the past three weeks. His two fumbles in the Divisional Round likely sealed his fate, but even if Reid plans to deploy Hardman for only one offensive snap yet again, I wouldn’t put it past Reid to have a gadget/trick play for Hardman on the playsheet. His chances of playing meaningful snaps decreased when Moore was activated off Injured Reserve.
Skyy Moore ($2,000 DK, $5,000 FD)
Moore was activated off Injured Reserve but hasn’t played since Week 15. He was down to a 20% route participation rate over his two most recent games, so he is unlikely to play a major role if he’s active. It’s possible he slots in as the WR4 over James, giving him some appeal in large-field GPPs.
Ray-Ray McCloud ($200 DK, $5,500 FD)
McCloud has been leapfrogged by Chris Conley, who out-snapped him 8-3 last week and 25-8 in the Divisional Round. McCloud would likely need an injury to Samuel, Aiyuk or Jennings to have any chance at producing value.
Chris Conley ($200 DK, $5,000 FD)
Conley has jumped McCloud in the wide receiver pecking order due to his blocking prowess. He will likely see a few snaps in the normal flow of the game, but his best bet at value is an injury. Even if the 49ers fall behind, the presence of McCaffrey and Kittle makes it tough for Shanahan to justify using many 4WR sets.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($10,200, $13,000 FD)
He has scored in eight of his last nine postseason games and 13-of-17 postseason games with Mahomes, catching 18 touchdowns in total. While the 49ers finished No. 4 in DVOA against tight ends during the regular season, they allowed 17 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown to tight ends in the playoffs and have struggled against the few high-quality tight ends they’ve faced, allowing T.J. Hockenson to catch 11-of-12 targets for 86 yards in Week 7, Trey McBride to catch 10-of-11 targets for 102 in Week 15 and Sam LaPorta to catch 9-of-13 targets for 97 in the Conference Championship. Due to Kelce’s high target share, he is playable in tournament lineups unstacked with Mahomes.
George Kittle ($6,400 DK, $10,000 FD)
As the only viable option priced between $5,200 and $7,600 on DraftKings, Kittle is the lynchpin of DraftKings roster construction. He has become more boom-bust than ever as the fourth option in the passing game. He’ll have a big game if the Chiefs’ elite cornerback corps can make Purdy come off Samuel and Aiyuk enough times, but there is probably more leverage to be gained by fading him, as he is going to be an easy plug-and-play as by far the cheapest stud-caliber player. He is best served in tournament builds that fade both of Samuel and Aiyuk, as the masses likely sprinkle him in liberally across all different types of builds.
Noah Gray ($1,800 DK, $5,500 FD)
Grey is usually good for a couple of catches as a high-volume TE2. He is averaging 1.7 receptions for 17.7 yards and 0.11 touchdowns in games Kelce has been active this season, making him a solid cash-game punt play and tournament dart throw.
Blake Bell ($200 DK, $5,000 FD)
Bell is averaging a 10% route participation rate over the past few weeks as Kansas City leans into more heavy, three tight end personnel. His best bet for value is a cheap, play-action TD around the goal line – or a tush push, since Andy Reid refuses to sneak Mahomes and Bell (a former college quarterback) has four carries in his career with the Chiefs.
Charlie Woerner ($200 DK, $5,000 FD)
Woerner was called upon to run a route on 10-20% of dropbacks over the second half of the season, but the presence of Juszczyk leaves Woerner on the outside looking in in terms of meaningful postseason passing snaps.
Brayden Willis ($200 DK, $5,000 FD)
He has played four postseason snaps, all in the run game.
Kicker
Harrison Butker ($5,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
I have Butker projected more than a point ahead of Moody. If you’re creating a build around the prospect of a defensive slugfest with a lot of stalled red-zone drives, Butker has some utility. He already has a four-field goal game under his belt this postseason and has posted double-digit fantasy points in four of his last 12 playoff contests.
Jake Moody ($5,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Kickers are like defenses with only half of the upside. It’s not impossible for them to land in the optimal lineup, but it’s highly unlikely given the plethora of viable skill player options under $4,000. I also have Moody projected to get handily outscored by Butker. Moody’s five misses under 50 might nudge Shanahan to eschew mid-range attempts in favor of going for it, which is not an issue with Butker/Reid.
Defense/Special Teams
49ers ($4,400)
I have the 49ers DST projected virtually identically to the Chiefs DST, so I won’t be playing the San Francisco DST much. It works best in lineups stacked with McCaffrey that fade Purdy and the 49ers passing game in anticipation of them getting a lead early.
Chiefs ($3,400)
I project the Chiefs as the better value of the two DSTs. They work best stacked with Pacheco and fading Mahomes in anticipation of the Chiefs getting a lead early.
DraftKings Cash Game Lineup
RB Christian McCaffrey (CAP) $18,000
QB Patrick Mahomes $10,600
QB Brock Purdy $10,200
RB Isiah Pacheco $8,000
TE Noah Gray $1,800
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire $1,200
The objective in cash games is to maximize your floor by gaining exposure to as many potential TDs as possible by way of rostering each team’s QB and RB1. That’s easy enough to do on DraftKings, with enough salary to also roster Noah Gray, the top projected value under $3,000, and Edwards-Helaire, who provides Pacheco-insurance in the event of an injury or negative game script.
FanDuel Cash Game Lineup
RB Christian McCaffrey (MVP) $17,500
QB Patrick Mahomes $15,000
QB Brock Purdy $14,500
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling $7,500
TE Noah Gray $5,500
FanDuel’s pricing doesn’t make it possible to roster all four of McCaffrey, Mahomes, Purdy and Pacheco, leaving Pacheco as the odd man out. Pacheco has the lowest projection of the four and is the most game-script dependent. Valdes-Scantling and Gray project as the optimal way to use the remaining $13,000 in salary. Pairing Edwards-Helaire ($6,500) and Justin Watson ($6,500) is another option for the final two slots, but Edwards-Helaire is not as valuable on FanDuel’s half-PPR format as he is on DraftKings’ full PPR.
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