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Vikings vs Browns Anytime Touchdown Picks: Justin Jefferson, Quinshon Judkins

Vikings vs Browns Anytime Touchdown Picks: Justin Jefferson, Quinshon Judkins article feature image
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Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images. Pictured: Justin Jefferson.

The Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns clash on Sunday, October 5, in the NFL London game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Kickoff is set for at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network.

For my Vikings vs Browns anytime touchdown picks, I'm targeting one player from each side: Justin Jefferson and Quinshon Judkins. I also provide one long-shot touchdown pick.

Continue below for my Vikings-Browns anytime touchdown preview for Sunday morning in London.

Playbook

Editor's Note: An anytime touchdown parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These touchdown picks have value as straight bets.

Vikings vs Browns Anytime Touchdown Props

  • Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+175; bet365)
  • Quinshon Judkins Anytime Touchdown (+140; bet365)


Vikings vs Browns Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks

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Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+170)

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Looking at final scores, you’d think the Browns defense is hit-or-miss, but once you dig into the details, they are a wall of terror for certain offenses.

Even though Lions RB Jahymr Gibbs scored last week, it wasn’t easy — the Browns have only allowed two touchdowns total to opposing running backs in four games. That’s partially why I want nothing to do with Vikings RB Jordan Mason this week and will be looking at the Minnesota pass game instead, especially receivers that thrive against man coverage.

Fair warning: the total in this game is dropping fast and the Vikings will be missing key offensive linemen to stop the Browns' pass rush.

Last week against the Steelers, I went with Vikings WR Justin Jefferson at +165 because he checked all the boxes. The one part I may have not weighed hard enough was QB Carson Wentz, who got exposed by Pittsburgh.

The Browns defense compares similarly to the Steelers in that Cleveland plays a lot of man coverage (at a top-six rate), while also playing a lot of single-high safety.

If we can stomach Wentz and his mistakes, then I think we need to go back to Jefferson since his target rate against man coverage has routinely been at the top for the Vikings; we're also getting a great price at +170.

If you want to take WR Jordan Addison at +275, I certainly wouldn’t blame you as he’s a gamebreaker. But in his time in the NFL, his target rate against man coverage is pitiful compared to zone.

If Addison gets over +300, that’s when you can start to consider him a value bet.

Pick: Justin Jefferson +170


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Quinshon Judkins Anytime Touchdown (+170)

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For the Browns, we keep it simple and take the rookie running back in Quinshon Judkins.

Last week against the Lions, the Browns did everything they could to get him in the end zone; he now has seven red-zone carries in three games with two rushing TDs.

We just watched the Steelers and Kenneth Gainwell get two rushing TDs last week on this Vikings defense, and with rookie QB Dillon Gabriel expected to start, I expect Cleveland to be handing the ball off as much as possible unless forced to pass downfield on the Vikings' pesky secondary.

If you’re looking at a long-shot pick, sprinkle on Gabriel to sneak one in (+700) since he did have some rushing TD upside in college, and the Brian Flores blitz may make his scramble rate go off the charts.

Pick: Quinshon Judkins +170
Long-shot pick: Dillon Gabriel +700

Author Profile
About the Author

Gilles Gallant is a sports betting expert at the Action Network, specializing in NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. A regular contributor to The Action Network Podcast and YouTube shows like Action Island and Bet What Happens Live, Gilles has been betting on the NFL since 2012 and honed his profitable strategy in 2018. With a background at Odds Shark and FTN Network, he’s known for his expertise in NFL and other sports markets like NBA and MLB. Gilles holds a degree in broadcast journalism from Nova Scotia Community College and is a Certified Sales Professional.​

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