Week 5 in the NFL means it's already October.
Crisp leaves are beginning to fall, and the wheat is starting to separate from the chaff — both in the fields and in the standings.
Earlier this week, I ranked the nine teams stuck in the middle at 2-2, and there are some interesting trends on how to bet and fade those .500 teams in Week 5.
Every win still feels huge at this stage, and with the injuries beginning to pile up, some of these games could be ugly — but we don't have to enjoy the games to bet them!
Let's get to my NFL Week 5 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 5 Predictions
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Texans vs Ravens
I grabbed a much higher number earlier this week before all the Ravens injury news, so hopefully you tailed then and got this line at under 43 or 44, maybe even a 45. The total has settled at 40.5 now, and I still like the under.
There are some murmurings that Lamar Jackson is more day-to-day than week-to-week, but none of the lines budged. So, that sort of speaks for itself.
Jackson isn't healthy, and basically, neither is anyone else on this roster. It might honestly take less time to list the healthy Baltimore players at this point.
All those injuries dropped the total about four points, but the number was too low to start with, and it hasn't dropped far enough.
The Ravens defense is impacted by injuries at effectively every position and has been terrible this season at just about everything, but can Houston take advantage?
The Texans have scored six touchdowns all season. Five of those six took until the fourth quarter, and Houston started four of the six drives in opposing territory, with two of them scored on broken plays.
Offensive coordinator Nick Caley has not had any answers, nor the awful offensive line, and C.J. Stroud has regressed badly.
Houston's defense is the one great unit on the field. The Texans' pass rush should cause all sorts of problems against a Ravens offensive line that has struggled, even before missing LT Ronnie Stanley and all that Jackson scrambling ability.
Cooper Rush is decidedly not Jackson.
Rush averages just over 20 PPG in his career starts, and we're reminded here why Tyler Huntley overs were always a thing for Baltimore with Jackson out.
The splits with and without Jackson are stark. Baltimore's win rate drops from 70% with Jackson to 29% without him, going from 28.1 PPG to just 16.6.
Totals in Ravens games plummet from 49.0 with Jackson down to an ugly 35.9 without.
What a wild game this is — a week ago, the Texans were 0-3 and left for dead. Now they're road favorites, and these teams are fighting for their lives and desperately trying to find any semblance of offense.
Don't count on it.
Houston games have finished with 23, 39, 27 and 26 points this season, all four going under this 40.5 total at an average of 28.75 points.
In 13 games without Jackson since he became the full-time starter, the Ravens have seen the total stay under 40.5 in 10 of them, hitting our under in this spot. They've also stayed below 33.5 in 62% of them and under 30.5 in over half (7x, 54%).
That's why we're not fussing about the total dropping to 40.5 or lower, and it also means it's mineshaft season on this under.
Take under 40.5, and play under 37.5 at +145 (ESPN Bet), since that's the last key number for totals going down.
Place part of your bet on under 33.5 at +235 (bet365) and under 30.5 at +350 (FanDuel) too, since those are hitting in over half the non-Jackson Ravens' games.
If you want to go all the way down, under 27.5 is +560 at FanDuel. Even that has hit in three of 13 Ravens games without Jackson, and in three of Houston's four already this season.
Let's get ugly.
Pick: Under 40.5
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Colts + Cardinals 6-Point Teaser
Colts -1 / Cardinals -1.5
I was hoping to grab both the Cardinals and Colts on the right side of the key number of seven, but instead, this represents a great teaser opportunity.
Classic Stanford Wong teaser rules prefer home favorites of 7.5-to-8.5 points or road 'dogs of 1.5-to-2.5. The goal is crossing as many key numbers as possible with that six-point line move.
The Cardinals game falls perfectly in range, and the Colts are as close as you can get — and with the rule changes lately, we're seeing five and six take some of the sevens in the key number range, with one and two eating some of the threes.
Colts -7 teases to -1, so we still get to cross off seven, six, five, three and two, making this a valuable teaser play.
This is a great bounce-back spot for the Cardinals.
Arizona is playing on extended rest after a Thursday game, and the Titans remain abjectly terrible.
Tennessee ranks last by DVOA. The Titans are bottom-seven running and passing on both offense and defense. It's all bad.
The Cardinals aren't exactly good, but they're not terrible either. They're fine. They're average. In this game, at home with extra rest against a bad, poorly coached team, that should be enough.
The Colts offense is absolutely balling. Indianapolis ranks top three in EPA per play, Success Rate and Dropback Success Rate.
The Colts also rank second in series conversion rate at 77%, just behind Buffalo, consistently moving the chains and keeping a positive game script.
The Raiders defense has played a bit better than expected, but looked bottom-three on talent entering the season, especially in the secondary.
Daniel Jones will probably slow down eventually, but it probably won't be in this game.
It's fair to not be sold on the Colts after blowout wins against the Dolphins and Titans, but this game shapes up similarly.
If you can't tease at your book, just a moneyline parlay will do. If you're playing in a Survivor league, these are your picks this week.
I don't want the bloated spreads, but I trust the Cardinals and Colts to get the job done.
Pick: Colts -1 / Cardinals -1.5
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Dolphins vs Panthers
Dolphins-Panthers looks like an easy cross-off between two bad teams at first, but I'm wondering if the Dolphins may be able to score here.
Miami is somehow favored for a third time in four games — and even crazier, that's probably right.
Mike McDaniel's offense is still pretty good at moving the ball and scoring points, especially against bad defenses — and that's still what the Panthers are.
Carolina had a goofy shutout win against Atlanta, but the Panthers have allowed at least 22 points in all but two games since the start of last season. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins to at least 23 points in nine of his last 13 starts.
That all tempted me toward a Dolphins team total over 22.5, but I don't need it. It's a short week for Miami adjusting to life without Tyreek Hill and all that lost gravity. Plus, Tagovailoa has been poor against the zone, which Carolina plays heavy amounts of.
But if we're right about Miami scoring, when the Dolphins do play well, they typically score in droves.
Miami has scored at least 22 points in 16-of-18 wins since the start of 2023 — but the Dolphins are also averaging 32.4 PPG in those wins. And in all those Carolina games allowing at least 22 points since the start of last season, the Panthers are giving up an average of 32.2 PPG.
Forget the median outcome; the Dolphins might just no show. If Miami does score, I think they score a bunch.
Let's take a ride on Dolphins over 32.5 points at +455 (DraftKings), right at those two stats we just noted.
And if Miami does score, how about a first career touchdown for tight end Julian Hill?
The Panthers allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends last season, most of any team, and they've already allowed TDs to Hunter Long and Hunter Henry this season.
What's really interesting is the list of guys scoring on Carolina — guys like Foster Moreau (twice), Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins, Noah Gray (twice), Payne Durham and Hunter Long.
These aren't star tight ends, nor even TE1s always. These are blocking tight ends stealing unexpected scores.
Darren Waller is the story right now after making his Miami debut with two TDs on Monday night, but he played only 16 snaps and he'll have the defense's attention now.
Julian Hill played 41-of-58 snaps, and he's the blocking tight end. Miami needs him out there with this offensive line.
Hill has only 20 career receptions, including only two in four games this season.
We're probably going to get one shot at this, if that! But that's why it's +950 at DraftKings. Let's have some fun!
Picks: Dolphins Team Total Over 32.5 (+455); Julian Hill Anytime TD (+950)
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Cowboys vs Jets
I looked pretty hard at Cowboys -2.5 in this one.
I've got eight trends popping for Dallas, none for New York.
Road favorites in Weeks 5 and 6 are 35-15 ATS (70%) since 2021, and Dak Prescott is usually great as a favorite and against sub-.500 teams (63% ATS), while Justin Fields is bad as an underdog and against sub-.500 teams (29% ATS).
These Jets may be a bit underrated, though. They rank top-seven in Success Rate on both offense and defense, undone by turnovers on both sides of the ball, but the Jets may actually have some answers in this one if they can stop fumbling every play.
Dallas is last defensively by DVOA and 31st in Success Rate, and that's against the third-softest schedule so far.
The Jets prefer to run the ball and may be able to control the game, keep the offense on the field, and move the chains.
Dallas also plays a fast tempo offensively, so that could mean a heap of Jets plays on this beleaguered defense.
Braelon Allen hit the IR this week after suffering an injury on Monday — that should open up touches for the other Jets running backs.
Expect a big game from Breece Hall.
Hall has at least 30 yards receiving in three of four games this season; Dallas has allowed at least 24 receiving yards to a back in every game this year — two against Green Bay.
I'm backing Breece Hall to go over 20.5 receiving yards (-115, Fanatics) and will put part of the bet on 30+ yards at +170 (FanDuel) since he's done that in all but one game.
I considered Hall for touchdown in what should be a fast, high-scoring game. Dallas has allowed an RB touchdown in three of four games.
Only three of Hall's 52 carries (6%) this season have come in the red zone, though. Compare that to six of 18 for Allen (33%).
Allen was the clear short-yardage guy, and I'm not convinced Hall will take on that role. I think it could be second-year RB Isaiah Davis, who saw 21 snaps with Allen hurt on Monday night.
Davis is a physical, bulldozing RB who is great between the tackles, and he had double-digit TDs in each of his two final seasons with South Dakota State. Could he be the new red-zone runner for New York?
Let's find out at +700 (Hard Rock).
If you like both RB props, you can parlay Hall over 20.5 receiving yards with a Davis TD, and then add in the negatively-correlated Cowboys -2.5 cover as a +2500 same-game parlay for a fun nibble (Hard Rock).
Picks: Breece Hall Over 20.5 Receiving Yards; Isaiah Davis Anytime TD (+700)
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Buccaneers vs Seahawks
Seattle is my favorite side of the week.
I liked Seahawks -2.5 on Sunday night when the line reopened. That disappeared quickly as this line is -3 and even -3.5 at most books, but I still like Seattle at the best number you can get.
It sucks to lose the key number, but in this case, the line move is because the Bucs have a barrage of injuries — and that only makes me like Seattle more.
Mike Evans is out and Chris Godwin is still rounding back into form off his long injury. The right side of the Bucs' offensive line remains out too, with LT Tristan Wirfs still ramping back up. The secondary enters the week banged up so that means cluster injuries at the three toughest positions.
It looks increasingly likely that dynamic RB Bucky Irving is limited or out as well. Even Baker Mayfield is playing hurt.
Seattle, on the other hand, is playing on extended rest after a Thursday game. The Seahawks have the better defense, the better offense (so far), better coaching, and the far healthier team.
The Seahawks defense leads the league in DVOA, and ranks top-three against both the run and the pass.
Mike Macdonald's unit should get after Mayfield with all those Bucs O-line injuries, and Tampa has struggled to run the ball this season and may be without Irving.
Tampa's run defense has been terrific, but the Bucs are beatable against the pass with little pass rush and injuries in the secondary. And don't look now, but Seattle has the No. 2 passing offense by DVOA.
Sam Darnold has been outstanding to start the season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a breakout star.
The Seahawks also have about as big a special teams advantage as you can have in this one, first in DVOA by a wide margin, while the Bucs have arguably the league's worst special teams unit, losing to Philly with a blocked-punt TD and being hurt repeatedly in this overlooked area.
I really think folks are sleeping on Seattle right now — my No. 6 power rated team — and I think it could even win by double digits.
Six of Macdonald's 13 wins so far have been by double digits with Seattle, with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points.
Mayfield is 17-26-1 ATS against teams over .500 (32%).
Give me Seattle -3, and I'll place a portion of the bet on Seahawks -9.5 at +215 too (FanDuel).
I also love investing in the Seahawks to make the playoffs (-115, ESPN Bet).
This is the second-highest leverage game of the week, per PFF, with Seattle 39% to make the playoffs with a loss here but 66% with a win.
FTN already has Seattle at -200, so if you like the Seahawks in this game, you should grab a playoff ticket.
Pick: Seahawks -3
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Lions vs Bengals
We already bet a couple ugly low unders.
This one will feel ugly for the opposite reason — because our instincts expect points here, and because it's never really fun to bet an under.
I probably don't need to convince you to bet against the Bengals' offense.
Cincinnati has 13 points combined the last two weeks with Jake Browning at quarterback and is struggling to move the ball in a bad way, with an offensive line that can't block anyone.
Of course, the Bengals also gave up 76 points in those two games with a defense that can't stop a nose bleed, so wouldn't we also expect the Lions to put up a big number on Cincinnati?
I don't really have an answer to that other than that sports are weird and the trends point otherwise — one trend in particular.
Jared Goff isn't as good outdoors or on the road, and this is an obvious lookahead spot for Detroit with a trip to Kansas City on the schedule next week.
The truth is that the trends are begging us to invest in what surely must be the low point for Cincinnati at +10.5, but I just can't bring myself to invest, nor to bet against Detroit with all its great ATS trends.
Which trends?
There are trends backing teams bouncing back after an awful margin of victory stretch, trends for home 10-to-14-point underdogs, trends backing teams off a big loss against those off a big win. There are a couple positive 2-2 trends that would support the Bengals, too — yes, this team is somehow 2-2.
If the Bengals are going to cover, though, they probably don't want to get into a shootout. A game close enough to cover probably goes under, with the Lions just sort of going through the motions and getting the win, even if it's not pretty.
Since 2013, games featuring a home underdog of at least seven points with a total over 45 are going under 67% of the time by more than a field goal. This game fits even better.
If you bump that trend to 48+ points and limit it to 'dogs of just 7-to-12 points, those games are an incredible 49-16-1 to the under, going under 75% of the time by 4.0 PPG.
I don't feel great about it either, but that trend is really strong and works in conjunction with all the trends backing the Bengals. So, we'll just trust the number and play it — but you may want to wait til closer to kickoff as this total continues to tick upward.
The Lions did play in games with 68 and 73 points, but they also played games with 40 and 44.
Let's hope for the latter and go under 49.5.
Pick: Under 49.5
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Patriots vs Bills
The Bills are one of two 4-0 squads, and it feels like that unbeaten record and the No. 1 spot in every power rankings is giving this team an overpriced bump.
The Bills are undefeated, but what have they proven? They played the Jets, Dolphins and Saints the last three games — winners of one game combined in September, against each other.
The only win against a real team was Week 1 against the now 1-3 Ravens, which looks far less impressive in hindsight, especially since Buffalo was getting dominated for most of that game.
Josh Allen is 7-6 against the Patriots, by far his toughest division opponent and most losses against any team, and four straight Bills-Patriots games have finished within one score.
The Patriots might be better than you think.
The offense is ahead of expectations, above average by DVOA and top quartile of the league passing, and that's almost entirely because of the development of Drake Maye.
He looks like a star in the making and this could be a Sunday night coming out party, especially as Stefon Diggs continues to ramp up and looks to show out against his old team.
New England's offense is ahead of schedule. This was supposed to be a defense-forward team, and the run defense has ranked top-10 by DVOA, but the pass defense is bottom-five.
But now star young CB Christian Gonzalez is back — one player doesn't fix everything, but his presence bumps Carlton Davis back to CB2 and gives this secondary an entirely different look.
It's not like the Bills defense has been that good. They're below average in many metrics, and the Pats will also have a pretty big special teams advantage with the way they've been returning kicks this season.
A handful of trends — some 2-2 ones, some division underdogs — support the Patriots here, but I don't necessarily love the way New England matches up with Buffalo's pass defense shell. Can the Pats run the ball well enough to shorten the game and keep it close?
Maybe, but if they're going to really contend, it has to be a bet on Maye — and if I'm betting on Maye, I'm going all-in.
Mike Vrabel has covered 64% of his games as an underdog of at least three points, but here's the crazy part: he has a winning record in those games at 21-20 SU, with a 59% ROI on the moneyline.
When he's at least a six-point 'dog, he's still coaching .500 ball at 7-7, with a remarkable 102% ROI on the moneyline.
Heavy favorites are dominating this weekend, but that might be buying us some value.
Let's take a shot on the New England moneyline at +360 (BetMGM) and hope for a Sunday night shocker.
I'm also investing in a +172 ticket for the Patriots to make the playoffs (FanDuel).
Only nine AFC teams are 2-2 or better right now (like New England), and one of those is the fake Bengals. That might mean only eight teams for seven spots in the AFC, maybe the winner of the Ravens-Texans game, and that's only if the 3-1 Steelers, Colts, and Jaguars all stay in the picture, too.
Normally, we'd wait and invest in the Patriots after such a big underdog spot, but if New England wins this game, we're never seeing +172 again.
This is the highest leverage game on the schedule this week, but the leverage is all upset for us as Patriots bettors.
New England drops from 36% to 31% to make the playoffs with a loss, per PFF — hardly any movement — but jumps all the way to 60% with a win.
If the Pats do get to 3-2, check out the schedule after Buffalo: Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Bucs, Jets, Bengals and Giants into the bye.
That's a bunch of winnable games on the schedule, and if New England starts with a win in Buffalo, there may be no turning back.
Picks: Patriots ML (+360); Patriots to Make the Playoffs (+172)
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Eagles vs Giants (Week 6 Lookahead Pick)
This is one of the easier lookahead picks of the year if you can get Eagles -7 or anything below the key number — there's -6.5 at BetMGM.
This is a division rivalry, but is it really a rivalry?
Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight meetings, and the Eagles sat their starters in the one loss in Week 18. Philly won all of the other seven games by at least six points, with an average margin of victory of 18.4 points! These games aren't even watchable.
And then there's the Saquon Barkley angle.
It's a homecoming and revenge game for Barkley; he dominated in his return to New York last year, which was a 28-3 Eagles win.
Even in a historic season, Barkley had his best YPC versus any opponent against these Giants at 10.4. This year's Giants rank dead last against the run by DVOA, so it could be a big night.
It may also be a tough night for Jaxson Dart, who is making his third career start on a short week of prep against this great Vic Fangio secondary — and without Malik Nabers.
Thursday night favorites of seven or more points are 44-30 ATS (60%).
This is Philly all the way, and there's no way we'll get this one below the starter next week.
Set it and forget it — and make alternate Thursday night plans.
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Brandon's Week 5 Betting Card
- Texans-Ravens Under 40.5
- Colts + Cardinals 6-Point Teaser
- Dolphins Team Total Over 32.5 (+455)
- Julian Hill Anytime TD (+950)
- Breece Hall Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
- Isaiah Davis Anytime TD (+700)
- Seahawks -3
- Lions-Bengals Under 49.5
- Patriots ML (+360)
- Patriots to Make the Playoffs (+172)
Brandon's Week 6 Lookahead Pick
- Eagles -6.5
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