The Minnesota Vikings (2-2) and Cleveland Browns (1-3) face off in London for NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for in 9:30 a.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. The game will broadcast on NFL Network.
The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (Vikings -3.5), with the over/under set at 36. Minnesota is a -205 moneyline favorite to win outright; Cleveland is +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my NFL London preview, which includes my Vikings vs Browns prediction for Week 5.
My Vikings vs Browns Prediction
- Vikings vs Browns pick: Under 36.5 (-115) + Mineshaft Unders
My Browns vs. Vikings best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Vikings vs Browns Odds
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 36 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 36 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Vikings vs Browns NFL Week 5 Preview
It's a second straight Sunday morning overseas for the Vikings, and you're forgiven if you're not exactly setting your alarm for this one. But football doesn't have to exciting to be worth betting on.
So, what is it that makes this game look so dreadful? The bad offenses and the elite defenses — which means this looks under all the way.
This was the first bet I made last Sunday at under 37.5, expecting the total to drop, and it's now down to as low as 35.5 at some books. I still like the under even there — and much further too, as you're about to see.
Would anyone even bat an eye if this game finished 9-6?
Everybody already knows both defenses are far better than anything either offense can offer.
The Browns rank second in Defensive DVOA, having effectively shut down Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love. They rank second against the run, too, and should be able to limit Jordan Mason, especially with the Vikings expected to be without three offensive line starters to injury, with LT Christian Darrisaw still somewhat limited in his return.
The Vikings have allowed 27 sacks in their last five games including the postseason, at least three in each.
Vikings QB Carson Wentz does not have an internal clock and should be under constant pressure from Myles Garrett, Maliek Collins, and a ferocious Browns defensive front.
We know what to expect on the other side of the ball, too.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will bring pressure all game with Minnesota's No. 1 pass defense by DVOA, and that means a lot of heat for Dillon Gabriel in his debut at quarterback.
It could be a rough go for Gabriel with the Browns missing both offensive tackles against all this pressure from the Vikings.
Cleveland ranks last in offensive Success Rate thus far despite the second-softest schedule, and the Browns have scored 18 or fewer points in 17 straight games not featuring Jameis Winston.
This Browns offense is beyond dead — so dead the Browns had to bench veteran Joe Flacco for a rookie QB making his debut against this defense overseas in London — not exactly a welcome scenario.
If you're looking for a side, I lean Vikings.
Minnesota has a huge rest and travel advantage — already overseas with last week's game in Ireland — especially with Gabriel also making his debut.
It's a tiny sample, but so far, NFL teams playing a second straight game overseas are 2-0 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
A number of other trends support the Vikings — international favorites not featuring the regularly overseas Jaguars are 26-12 ATS (68%).
Flores is 9-1 SU against rookie quarterbacks since becoming a head coach in 2019, including 6-2-2 ATS (75%), and he's limited opposing offenses to 16.3 PPG and an awful -0.16 EPA per dropback.
The problem is that this is on the wrong side of the key number, and with a total well below 40 and dropping, those 3.5 points are going to feel like 10 points on Sunday morning.
That's why this remains an under all the way.
Typically, we want overs in international games with low totals, with such games under 42 going 9-3 to the over historically. But the lowest international total ever is 38, so this game is in an entirely other category.
This looks like a windy game as well, and games in those conditions are 62% to the under the last four years.
Outdoor totals at 38 or below that dropped more than four points from open are 59% to the under. And since 2012, NFL totals below 36 are an incredible 16-5 to the under, a 76% hit rate by over four points a game.
Vikings vs Browns Prediction, Betting Analysis
Find the best number you can and grab the under — that's under 36.5 at bet365 as of writing — but don't stop there. When totals start to drop this low, history says books simply can't set the line low enough.
Since November 2019, games with a total at 37 or below are 40-20-1 to the under (67%). But those 61 games finished at 30 or fewer points in over half of them (32 times). So, it's time to take the mineshaft and play the under 30.5 at +190 (FanDuel).
But why stop there? Those games finished at 27 or below 43% of the time.
Let's play under 27.5 at +290 (FanDuel). And they stop at 23 or below almost a quarter of the time. So, nibble that at +520 too.
Want to really get wild?
We know all about key numbers, but in games with totals this low, I noticed that an outsize number of them seem to finish in the 25-to-27-point range, with 11 of 61 such games (18%) falling in that range.
It sounds crazy, but that means almost double the value on a same game parlay of under 27.5 & over 24.5 at +900 (Hard Rock).
If we're gonna watch this garbage Sunday morning overseas game, we may as well have a little fun with it.
Browns-Vikings under at the best number you can find, and mineshaft unders all the way down!
Pick: Under 36.5 (-115) + Mineshaft Unders
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this matchup.
Moneyline
I'm also steering clear of the moneyline market.
Over/Under
My Browns vs. Vikings betting prediction is on the under at 36.5 total points.
