Best Super Bowl 54 Squares: Results, The Numbers You Want for Chiefs vs. 49ers Boxes
Action Network Super Bowl squares sheet
- Sean Koerner simulated Chiefs vs. 49ers to determine the numbers you want in your Super Bowl 54 squares pool.
- Typical football numbers like 0, 7, 4 and 3 are ideal, but variance increases as the game goes on and unique NFL scores have increased since the league moved the extra point back four years ago.
- We're also tracking the results for Super Bowl squares at the top of this story.
UPDATE: Here are the results for Super Bowl 54 squares. We’ve still got the probabilities for every score in every quarter below.
- First Quarter: Chiefs 7, 49ers 3
- Second Quarter: Chiefs 0, 49ers 0
- Third Quarter: Chiefs 0, 49ers 0
- Final Score: Chiefs 1, 49ers 0
You’ve got your Super Bowl squares in hand. You’re ready for the game to begin. But how likely are you to actually win, and how screwed are you with 2-2?
The goal of Super Bowl squares is to land the correct final digit of each team’s score at the end of each quarter.
Last year, anyone with Patriots 3, Rams 3 took home the final score prize when the game finished 13-3.
Football lends itself to certain final digits based on how points are scored, so some boxes will give you a much better chance of winning. That’s why squares pools are randomized and there’s no selection process.
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, simulated Super Bowl 54 using his models to determine the likelihood of each square winning in each quarter.
Best Super Bowl Squares
The best Super Bowl squares are exactly what you’d expect: 7-0, 0-0, 7-7, 3-0 — aka any numbers that are easy fits with touchdowns and field goals.
Koerner simulated each quarter (which we’ll touch on below) and added the probabilities up to determine that these are the best overall numbers:
What If I Have Weird, Terrible, Non-Football Numbers?
Anyone with 5-2 or 2-2 isn’t dead yet. Unique game scores are at an all-time high since the NFL pushed the extra point back in 2015, which caused more misses and trickled down to more 2-point conversions.
Traditional football numbers like 0, 1, 4 and 7 aren’t occurring at the same rates that they were between 1966 and 2014 — those numbers are collectively down about 8% over the past five seasons.
Does It Matter Which Team I Have For Each Number?
In some cases, yes. There are more likely finishing scores for winning teams than losing teams.
Since the betting market has the Chiefs and 49ers almost dead-even, it shouldn’t matter much. Our projections reflect that.
Best First Quarter Numbers
Variance increases as a game progresses, so probabilities for the first quarter are different than for the final score.