Titans-Jaguars Betting Preview: How to View the Over/Under

Sep 21, 2018 04:00 AM EDT
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles

Betting odds: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Spread: Jaguars -6.5
  • Over/Under: 39.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Most books have held off as the status of Marcus Mariota’s elbow remains murky. Keep an eye on our NFL live odds page for updates as the game gets closer.

Weather report: With their win over the Patriots last week, the Jaguars are now just 8-21 against the spread at home in games in at least 80-degree heat, according to our Bet Labs tools.

All three Florida teams have fared poorly against the spread in hot home games, failing to take advantage of visiting teams that aren’t used to playing in similar conditions.

Temps in Jacksonville are expected to be in the mid 80s this weekend. Mark Gallant 

Trends to know: Over the past three seasons, Blake Bortles and the Jags are 11-6-1 ATS vs. division rivals — including 6-2 ATS as a favorite — covering by an average of 10.1 points. John Ewing

Whether it’s Mariota or Blaine Gabbert under center, history is not on the Titans’ side.

Gabbert is 0-8-1 ATS after he manufactures a straight-up win in his previous game, failing to cover by more than a touchdown per game.

Since Gabbert’s first start in 2011, he’s the only NFL QB (minimum three starts) who has never covered following a SU win.

But it doesn’t get much better for Mariota.

Since he was taken second overall in the 2015 NFL draft, Mariota is 17-24-2 ATS (-8.2 units) and is the second-least profitable QB in the league behind only the retired Carson Palmer. Evan Abrams

Injury watch: Mariota (elbow) reportedly had his best practice on Thursday in terms of velocity on his throws, but he was still listed as a limited participant.

The status on running back Derrick Henry (back) remains unclear, as well, although he has at least practiced in a limited fashion all week.

The Titans offense is hoping to welcome back left tackle Taylor Lewan (concussion) and right tackle Jack Conklin (knee) against the Jaguars’ fearsome front seven.

Leonard Fournette (hamstring) is on track to return after getting in limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. The status of T.J. Yeldon (ankle) appears less certain after he opened the week with a DNP before returning to practice on Thursday.

The good news for the Jaguars is that right guard A.J. Cann (triceps), tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (core), right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee) and center Brandon Linder (knee) don’t appear to be in danger of missing any game time.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Under 40(ish)

The Titans could once again be without Conklin and Lewan along the O-line, and one of their first backups (Dennis Kelly) is also questionable.

That’s a problem for most teams. That’s an even bigger problem for the Titans, who have no depth at tackle, and it’s a potential disaster against a vicious Jacksonville defensive line.

So what does that mean? Don’t expect Tennessee to get anything through the air with its subpar receivers against the best coverage corners in football — especially with tight end Delanie Walker out.

Regardless of who is under center, the Titans will have to run the ball up the gut a lot, which is a relative weakness of the elite Jags defense. Jacksonville knows this, but I’m not sure Tennessee has any other choice.

The Titans defense played very well against the Jags last year, holding them to 16 and 10 points. I expect another inspired effort in what should be a classic low-scoring divisional slugfest.

The Jaguars could also come out flat after getting their long-awaited revenge against the Patriots last week.

Look for a number of 40 or higher once this opens across the market. Stuckey

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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