Titans-Chargers Betting Preview: Does Tennessee Have Value in Bounce-Back Spot?

Titans-Chargers Betting Preview: Does Tennessee Have Value in Bounce-Back Spot? article feature image

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8).

Betting odds: Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (in London)

  • Spread: Chargers -6.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: The Chargers are getting 78% of bets, but have essentially remained at -6.5 across the market throughout the majority of the week (find updated odds here).

The Titans have been hit-or-miss this season, but are apparently good enough that books don’t want to give them a touchdown at a neutral location. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, teams coming off a win of 20 points or more (Chargers won by 24 in Week 6) have gone 353-386-25 (47.8%) against the spread in their next game, according to Bet Labs data.

Over that same span, teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points (Titans lost by 21 in Week 6) have gone 408-340-17 (55%) ATS in their next game.

One would think that if two such teams were to play each other the team coming off the blowout loss would offer value.

Indeed, from 2003-11, teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points playing an opponent that won their past game by 20 or more points went 31-20 (60.8%) ATS. But in the past six years these teams are just 13-17-2 (43.3%) ATS. John Ewing

The Titans were shut out at home against the Ravens last week. Since 2003, teams to get shut out and then be listed as underdogs the following week are 33-21-3 ATS (61.1%). When that team was shut out at home, the underdog is 16-7-2 ATS (69.6%). — Evan Abrams

Did you know? Big favorites tend to cover in London. There have been 10 teams favorites by four points or more. All 10 won straight up and nine of them covered, beating the spread by 11.9 ppg. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Chargers cornerback Desmond King vs. Titans wide receiver Taywan Taylor

Over the past three weeks, Taylor is second on the Titans with 20% of their target share, but he’s on an offense that’s averaging just 27.5 pass attempts per game, which doesn’t equate into many targets. He’ll also draw a matchup while in the slot against King, PFF’s No. 4 overall corner. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Titans

The Chargers will be without Joey Bosa (foot). They’re banged up elsewhere, as well: Kicker Caleb Sturgis (quad), tight end Virgil Green (ribs), center Mike Pouncey (knee) and wide receiver Travis Benjamin (foot) are also less than 100%.

Meanwhile, the Titans could be without linebackers Derrick Morgan (shoulder) and Will Compton (hamstring) in addition to left guard Quinton Spain (shoulder), but they’re relatively healthy otherwise.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Chargers have deployed Casey Hayward, PFF’s No. 1 cornerback of 2017, in shadow coverage against the opposition’s No. 1 outside receiver in each of the past two weeks, and both Amari Cooper (1-10-0) and Antonio Callaway (2-9-0) were promptly shut down.

Up next is Corey Davis, who ranks among the league’s top six receivers in target share (30%), air yard market share (39%) and targets inside the 10-yard line (5).

The good news for Davis is that he should escape Hayward’s shadow for a decent portion of the afternoon.

Overall, Davis has lined up in the slot on 21% of his snaps this season compared to just 2% for Hayward. He has a strong +2.6 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at just $5,100. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Titans +6.5

The Titans scored zero points last week, which is really saying something in a season where teams are averaging 24.1 points per game — on pace for an NFL record.

Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 394-337-15 (54%) ATS in their next game.

If those same teams, coming off a bad offensive game, are getting little public support it has been even more profitable to buy low on them, as the spreads are likely inflated.

Currently, less than 30% of spread tickets are on Marcus Mariota & Co. — Ewing

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.