Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly. So, it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 7 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 7 Picks
Panthers vs Jets Moneyline Pick
The Jets are the last winless team in the NFL at 0-6. They tallied -10 passing yards in an ugly loss to the Broncos and they are traveling back home from London ahead of this week's game with no extra rest … and the Jets are favored?!
We have to take this one simply based on principle.
According to our Bet Labs database, winless teams have only been favored five times in Week 7 or later since 2013.
That tells us that this current line of Jets -120 likely won't last.
So, let's assume this line flips and the Panthers become short favorites by the end of the week. Winless underdogs of a field goal or less in Week 7 or later are 4-9 straight up (SU) in the last 13 instances.
The Panthers' defense is finally starting to come together, and they've vastly improved against the run, which was the primary problem for them in recent years.
Tetairoa McMillan finally asserted himself as a dangerous red-zone weapon for Carolina's offense, snagging two touchdowns in a win over the Cowboys.
McMillan could be in for another big game this week, going up against a Jets defense that ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA against the pass.
Pick: Panthers Moneyline (+100)
Buccaneers vs Lions Spread Pick
The Lions are simply the much better team and this line should be wider than a TD.
The Buccaneers are still dealing with a bunch of key injuries on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Their cornerbacks and running backs are also banged up entering this one. And following Sunday's game, star rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is now dealing with a hamstring issue.
So, the Buccaneers may be without all three of their top wide receivers in this spot, which would certainly help offset the absence of Detroit's top corners.
The Lions are getting healthier in the trenches. There's a chance they could get back LT Taylor Decker and DT Alim McNeil.
The Lions entered this past weekend ranked top five in DVOA against the run and pass on both sides of the ball, plus special teams.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers still have some flaws in their game. Tampa Bay ranks bottom five in the league in rushing offense, and they rank in the bottom-quarter in pass defense.
The Bucs just aren't quite as complete of a team as Detroit right now.
The Lions and Buccaneers have faced off against each other three times in the last two years. The Lions won two of those three matchups, and in the one loss, they still outplayed Tampa Bay pretty badly, more than doubling the Bucs' total yardage on the way to a defeat in that game.
The Bucs' defense had no answers for Amon-Ra St. Brown in those games; the Lions' star wideout boasts averages of 107 yards on 10.3 catches per game in his last three outings against Tampa Bay. Jared Goff also averaged a cool 316 passing yards per game in those contests.
When playing indoors for the Lions, Goff owns a record of 35-12-1 against the spread (75%), covering by an average of 5.7 points per game.
I'll take the Lions -4.5. Grab it before it reaches -6 or 7 if you can.
Pick: Lions -4.5 (-110)