The Chicago Bears (2-2) and Washington Commanders (3-2) wrap up Week 6 in the second Monday Night Football game on October 13. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. MNF will broadcast live on ABC.
The Commanders are 5.5-point favorites over the Bears on the spread (Commanders -5.5), with a game total of 49.5. The Commanders are -250 moneyline favorites while the Bears are +205 underdogs.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Bears vs Commanders prediction.
Bears vs Commanders Prediction
- Bears vs Commanders pick: Bears +5.5 (-110)
My Commanders vs. Bears best bet is on Chicago to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bears vs Commanders Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +205 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
Bears vs Commanders Monday Night Football Preview
On paper, this looks like a big mismatch between the Commanders' offense and the Bears' defense, particularly on the ground.
The Commanders' offense enters Monday night ranked eighth in EPA/play (0.119) and ninth in Success Rate (48.4%), while the Bears' defense clocks in at 20th in EPA/play and 30th in Success Rate (50.0%).
The Commanders have the No. 1 offense in terms of yards per carry (5.9) and the No. 3 offense in terms of EPA/rush (0.047), led by Jayden Daniels and emerging rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
The Bears allow a league-worst 6.1 YPC and rank 23rd in EPA/rush (-0.044). Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) has been ruled out for Chicago.
With all that said, Washington's edge may be overstated.
The Bears' defensive numbers are skewed by a Week 2 drubbing from the Lions, in which Chicago allowed 52 points and 511 total yards.
Chicago is getting back LB T.J. Edwards, who led the team with 30 run stops last season but hasn't played since Week 1.
This should allow defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to play more base defense on early downs, though the Bears' run defense in the nickel package should also be improved with the season debut of CB Kyler Gordon, who was top 10 among all cornerbacks league wide last season with 13 run stops, per PFF. The bye week should also help new Allen plug some holes.
The Commanders' offense is far from peak form, and if we're being honest, they are probably getting too much credit on both sides of the ball for their 27-10 over the Chargers.
The offense is thin at the skill positions without Terry McLaurin (quad), Noah Brown (groin) and Austin Ekeler (IR-Achilles). Deebo Samuel (Q-heel) and Chris Rodriguez (Q-calf) are also operating at less than 100%.
The Commanders have dropped from sixth to 29th on third down, and Daniels has seen dips in completion rate (69.0% to 59.2%), YPA (7.4 to 6.8), and QBR (67.7 to 39.0).
We should get the best version of the Bears' offense to date coming out of the bye. Head coach Ben Johnson has made a change at left tackle, tweaks the run game and will have first-round pick Colston Loveland (hip) back. We should also expect new wrinkles to get explosive Day 2 pick Luther Burden III the ball more.
The Commanders have been below average against the pass at 19th in EPA/play, and have a secondary that can be exploited by Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore.
Bears vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Commanders have won by more than one possession in both of Jayden Daniels' winning starts this season, but last season did so in only 4-of-12.
Per Action Labs, Week 6 'dogs of +3 or more are 46-30-4 (61%) against the spread (ATS) when going up against favorites with a winning ATS record over the past two decades. In non-divisional matchups, they are 94-62-6 (60%) ATS over that span.
Pick: Bears +5.5 (-110)
Spread
My Commanders vs. Bears betting prediction is on Chicago to cover the spread at +5.5.
Moneyline
It's either the Bears or nothing for me on the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play, but trends lean under due to it being an outdoor game with double-digit winds in the forecast.
