Week 10 NFL Prop Bets & Picks: Drew Brees, Jamaal Williams, More

Week 10 NFL Prop Bets & Picks: Drew Brees, Jamaal Williams, More article feature image

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Brees

  • Mike Randle identifies five of the best NFL prop bets for Week 10.
  • Find his picks for Drew Brees' passing touchdowns and four more below.

NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.

The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.

One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

  • Chiefs at Titans: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Ravens at Bengals: 1:00 pm ET
  • Falcons at Saints: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Panthers at Packers: 4:25 p.m. ET

Week 10 NFL Prop Bets & Picks

Here are four props with a Bet Quality of 10 for Sunday’s main slate, with one 9-rated selection. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 288-200-8 (58.1% win rate).

Packers RB Jamaal Williams

  • The Opponent: Panthers (4:25 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (-121)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Lost in the shuffle of running back Aaron Jones’ huge Week 7 and 8 fantasy performances is the increased passing game usage of teammate Jamaal Williams.

The third-year running back has seen five or more targets in three of the last four games and is averaging 3.1 receptions per game on the season. This week, Green Bay will host a Carolina defense that has struggled to limit opposing running back production. The Panthers have allowed a league-leading 14 touchdowns to the opposition’s backfield.

Williams has become a favorite in the red zone, totaling five touchdowns over his past four games. Williams has been a superbly efficient back all season as illustrated by his +46.6 Production Premium, which ranks second-best among all running backs (PlayerProfiler).

Our projection of 23.9 rushing yards is more than 40% over the implied total.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -125. 
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Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy

  • The Opponent: Titans (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

The LeSean McCoy experiment in Kansas City has not gone as planned.

Over the past five games, McCoy has averaged just 31.4 rushing yards on just 6.4 carries per game. In the receiving game?  McCoy has been even less productive.

Over that same time, McCoy has totaled 11 receptions, but for only 58 yards while fumbling twice. Since his untimely second-half fumble in the Chiefs 31-24 home loss to Green Bay, McCoy has exactly one reception for zero yards.

Last week, running back Damien Williams dominated the touches with a 75.5% snap share (PlayerProfiler).

Expect head coach Andy Reid to stay with the hot hand and feed Williams over McCoy, who has failed to reach this prop in five of the previous nine games.

This is one of my favorite 10-rated props on the Sunday slate.
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Saints QB Drew Brees

  • The Opponent: Falcons (4:25p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-225)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

This prop is an automatic bet at home against the brutal Atlanta defense. The Falcons rank second in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. This is a byproduct of a pass rush that fails to generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Falcons rank dead last with only seven total sacks this season.

Betting on Drew Brees at home is a very high expected value play, as he has a long history of multiple touchdown games at home.

With an average of 2.32 passing touchdowns per game over his past 25 home games, it’s difficult to imagine him falling short of this prop against the NFL’s second-worst pass defense.

With Atlanta also averaging the third-most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, look for Brees to easily crest this prop, even at the low -225 juice.

We project Brees at 2.3 passing touchdowns, a full 33% over his implied total of 1.8.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -250.
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Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Graham

Packers TE Jimmy Graham

  • The Opponent: Panthers (1 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

This prop combines an under-utilized offensive weapon with a defense that limits the production of that position. I recommend the under 32.5 receiving yards prop for Green Bay tight end Jimmy Graham.

The Panthers have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. They have allowed an average of 3.6 receptions and just 40.5 receiving yards per game.

Graham has failed to break 20 receiving yards in three of his past four games. He has also failed to crest a 70% snap share in any of those contests.

The return of All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams will also siphon targets away from Graham. In the three home games this season that Adams was active, Graham averaged just two receptions and 20.3 receiving yards. In all other games, he saw 3.17 receptions and over 31 receiving yards.

On the season, Graham is averaging just 27.9 receiving yards per game. It is difficult to see him exceeding that average by over 16% against Carolina’s third most efficient pass defense.

Graham projects for 26.6 receiving yards which are 22% fewer than the implied total of 33.6.

I would bet this prop up to -130.

Ravens TE Hayden Hurst

  • The Opponent: Bengals (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
  • Bet Quality: 9/10

The Ravens’ tight end production has mainly centered on Mark Andrews. However, it is his teammate, Hayden Hurst, that has seen more opportunities over the past three weeks.

The 6-foot-5, 250 lb Hurst has run 27 routes over the last three games. He has caught a pass in each of those games and has garnered two red zone targets.

Coming off a bye, the Bengals defense is healthy and should be able to limit Andrews’ production as quarterback Lamar Jackson’s primary target. Cincinnati is fourth-best at limiting the production of opposing tight ends.

New England tried a similar defensive strategy, which allowed Hurst to catch both of his targets for 15 receiving yards. While that isn’t a ton of yardage, it is enough to hit the over on this 13.5 receiving yards prop.

Hurst features 4.67 40-yard dash speed and ranks 10th with 2.33 yards per pass route this season. With Cincinnati ranking 31st in quarterbacks sacks and hits, Hurst should have opportunities in the intermediate area of the field to easily reach this total.

We project Hurst for 16.7 receiving yards, which is 19% more than his implied total.
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