The Best Week 11 NFL Prop Bets: Mark Ingram, Ted Ginn, More Picks
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens running back Mark Ingram
- Mike Randle identifies five of the best Week 11 NFL prop bets for Sunday's main slate.
- Find his picks for Mark Ingram's receiving yards, Ted Ginn's receptions and more.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
- Jets at Redskins: 1 p.m. ET
- Texans at Ravens: 1 pm ET
- Saints at Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
- Cowboys at Lions: 1 pm ET
- Cardinals at 49ers: 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 11 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Here are two props with a Bet Quality of 10 for Sunday’s main slate, with three 9-rated selections. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 311-224-11 (57% win rate).
Redskins WR Trey Quinn
- The Opponent: Jets (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 1.5 Receptions (-195)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
While Trey Quinn’s seasonal production doesn’t inspire confidence, we can build a strong case for why this is a strong play.
Washington is coming off their bye week and has committed to starting rookie Dwayne Haskins. The erratic play of the first-year quarterback will create a need for short to intermediate route passes, precisely where Quinn runs the majority of his routes.
On the season, Quinn is averaging 4.6 targets and 2.7 receptions per game. This week, he gets to face a Jets secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
The shifty seventh-round wideout ranks Top 20 in target separation, a huge advantage to the “see it, throw it” nature of the rookie Haskins.
Washington starting tight end Jeremy Sprinkle has been uninspiring all season, failing to break 24 receiving yards in any individual game.
With tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Paul Richardson ruled out for this game, Quinn is a safe bet to simply catch two receptions against one of the league’s worst secondaries.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -200.
Ravens RB Mark Ingram
- The Opponent: Texans (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 11.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
I’m backing Matthew Freedman on this under prop for Ravens running back Mark Ingram.
Ingram was a much more productive part of the passing game while he was in New Orleans. Over a three year period in the Bayou, Ingram averaged 51.3 receptions per season.
However, with a rushing savant like Lamar Jackson as quarterback, Ingram has seen a dramatic decline in passing work.
This year, Ingram is averaging just 1.7 targets, 1.6 receptions and 13.9 yards per game. He has failed to break seven receiving yards in three of past five games.
While the Texans have allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this season, they have primarily been hurt by teams with stationary quarterbacks. Their largest allowed production occurred to running backs tethered to Matt Ryan, Kyle Allen, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers.
I expect a big performance from Houston coming off their bye, and a running quarterback like Jackson is always more likely to run the ball himself than dump it off to a running back.
I’m going to fade the low pass volume of Ingram and take the under in what I expect will be a very close game.
I would be this 9-rated prop down to -125.
Saints WR Ted Ginn Jr.
- The Opponent: Buccaneers (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 2.5 receptions (+109)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
The return of Saints wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith makes this prop very enticing.
Last year, Smith tallied an overall WR5 and WR3 performance during his rookie campaign.
This season, even with Smith missing most of the year with an ankle injury, Ginn has seen a significant decrease in his production from the 2018 year.
Ginn is averaging only 4.4 targets and 2.5 receptions per game, down from his 6.1 targets and 3.4 receptions a year ago. He will also have to contend with tight end Jared Cook, who missed two of Ginn’s games this season with an injury.
New Orleans has their full offensive group of weapons back, including running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. It is hard to see Ginn hitting the over on this prop when his per game average is only 2.5 receptions with a depleted receiver core.
We project Ginn at 2.3 receptions, a full 20% under his implied total of 2.8.
I would bet this 9-rated prop down to -110.
Cardinals TE Maxx Williams
- The Opponent: 49ers (14:05 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Williams has performed admirably this year as one of the only consistently healthy options in the Arizona passing game. However, his low volume and tough matchup make this an attractive under bet.
Despite playing every game this season, Williams only averages 15.4 receiving yards per game. He also averages a minuscule 1.4 targets per game.
In short, on average, Williams will have one chance to reach this prop per game.
With wide receiver Christian Kirk now healthy, Williams saw that one target last week against Tampa Bay, and rumbled for 15 yards. I am banking on that not happening again against a San Francisco defense that allows the fewest points per game to opposing tight ends.
In that game last week, Williams ran fewer routes than fellow tight end Charles Clay and only totaled a 44.4% snap share (PlayerProfiler).
Williams projects for 9.5 receiving yards which is 30% fewer than the implied total of 13.2 yards.
I would bet this prop up to -130.
Lions WR Danny Amendola
- The Opponent: Cowboys (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (+127)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
The Lions wide receiver production has mainly centered on Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. However, their teammate, Danny Amendola, has also shown a propensity for high target boom weeks.
Amendola has three games of a 70% or higher snap share in Detroit’s past four outings. He has also averaged 6.5 targets per game and is Top 25 in target separation among wide receivers.
In Jeff Driskel’s first start last week, Amendola saw the second-most targets (eight) on the team. Dallas lead cornerbacks Byron Jones and Chidobie Awuzie will likely cover Golladay and Jones, freeing Amendola for more targets.
With a 48-point over/under, the Lions will likely need to score points to keep pace with a Cowboys offense that ranks first in overall efficiency.
Detroit is even more likely to lean on the pass given their poor rushing efficiency this season. The Lions rank 27th in run offensive efficiency per Football Outsiders.
We project Amendola for 36.5 receiving yards, which is 16% more than his implied total.